Market›information-technology›semiconductors-and-semiconductor-equipment›semiconductor-materials-and-equipment›ASML›Apr 27, 2026
Briefing #1 of 1

ASML briefing — ASML Holding N.V.

Released: 2026-04-27 Briefing series: #1 of N Prior briefing: first in series Stock at release: $1,432.44 Inflection pattern: volatile_grower

What changed since the last briefing

(This is the first briefing in the series.)

Company snapshot

The arc

| Date | Event | Source | |------|-------|--------| | 2026-04-22 | TSMC announced it is delaying adoption of ASML's latest high-NA EUV systems (Twinscan EXE); stock fell -3.4% on the news. Raises questions about ASML's high-NA revenue ramp timeline. | Investing.com / event data, 2026-04-22 | | 2026-04-15 | Q1 2026 earnings: €8.8B total net sales, €2.8B net income; 2026 guidance raised to €36–40B total net sales (vs. prior €34–39B), gross margin 51–53%. | ASML 6-K, filed 2026-04-15 | | 2026-02-25 | Filed 20-F for FY2025; reports 327 lithography systems sold in 2025 vs. 418 in 2024 and 449 in 2023 — unit volume declining as average selling prices rise sharply on mix shift to EUV. | 20-F FY2025, filed 2026-02-25 | | 2026-01-28 | Q4/FY2025 full-year earnings: €32.7B total net sales, €9.6B net income; 2026 guidance of €34–39B total net sales with 51–53% gross margin. | ASML 6-K, filed 2026-01-28 | | 2025-10-15 | Q3 2025 earnings: €7.5B total net sales, €2.1B net income; full-year 2025 expected growth ~15% with gross margin ~52%. | ASML 6-K, filed 2025-10-15 | | 2024-01-28 | Dutch government began restricting ASML's DUV export licenses to China; export controls progressively tightened in 2024–2025, limiting China shipments of DUV systems. | 20-F FY2024, filed 2025-03-05 | | 2023-01-01 | ASML shipped 449 systems in FY2023; first EUV EXE (high-NA) pre-production units began reaching early customers. Revenue exceeded €27B with backlog exceeding €36B at year-end 2023. | 20-F FY2024, filed 2025-03-05 |

Current state

Year-over-year changes (FY2024 → FY2025)

| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | Change | |--------|--------|--------|--------| | Total net sales (€B) | ~28.3 | 32.7 | ▲~15% | | Gross margin (%) | ~51 | ~52 | ▲~100 bps | | Net income (€B) | ~7.8 | 9.6 | ▲~23% |

Source: 6-K Q4/FY2025, filed 2026-01-28; 6-K Q3 2025 (noted full-year 2025 expected ~15% growth), filed 2025-10-15. Exact FY2024 figures require full 20-F review.

FY2025 total net sales of €32.7B reflected approximately 15% growth over FY2024, driven by mix shift toward higher-priced EUV systems even as unit volume dropped from 418 to 327 systems. The lower unit count reflects the ongoing shift from high-volume lower-priced DUV to lower-volume higher-priced EUV and the impact of China export restrictions reducing DUV shipments. Net income of €9.6B and gross margin of approximately 52% were consistent with guidance. (6-K, filed 2026-01-28.)

Q1 2026 delivered €8.8B total net sales and €2.8B net income; management raised 2026 full-year guidance to €36–40B in total net sales, up from the prior €34–39B range, with gross margin of 51–53%. The guidance raise was driven by accelerating demand from AI infrastructure buildout across all major foundry customers. ASML is working to increase output capacity to prevent supply bottlenecks. However, TSMC's April 2026 announcement of delays in adopting high-NA EUV (Twinscan EXE) creates uncertainty about the timing of that product cycle's revenue contribution. (6-K, filed 2026-04-15; event data, 2026-04-22.)

The 20-F FY2025 (filed 2026-02-25) was truncated in available summary data and primarily contains risk factors. Key metrics cited in filings confirm 327 systems sold in 2025. Export control developments remain material: the U.S. Section 232 investigation concluded December 2025 with a 25% tariff on certain advanced chips and derivatives; a U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement in January 2026 granted preferential Section 232 treatment for Taiwanese semiconductor producers investing in U.S. manufacturing, which benefits ASML's customer base. (20-F FY2025, filed 2026-02-25; 20-F FY2024, filed 2025-03-05.)

Key numbers

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | Total net sales (€B) | [DATA NEEDED] | ~27.6 | ~28.3 | 32.7 | | Gross margin (%) | [DATA NEEDED] | [DATA NEEDED] | ~51 | ~52 | | Net income (€B) | [DATA NEEDED] | [DATA NEEDED] | ~7.8 | 9.6 | | Systems sold (units) | [DATA NEEDED] | 449 | 418 | 327 |

Source: 6-K Q4/FY2025, filed 2026-01-28; 6-K Q3 2025, filed 2025-10-15; 20-F FY2025, filed 2026-02-25. Full 20-F financial tables [DATA NEEDED] — summary file truncated.

Recent news (last 6 months)

| Date | Headline | Source | Market reaction | |------|----------|--------|-----------------| | 2026-04-22 | ASML shares fall as TSMC delays high-NA EUV adoption | Investing.com | -3.4% | | 2026-04-15 | ASML Q1 2026: €8.8B net sales, raises 2026 guidance to €36–40B | ASML 6-K | -8.1% (day before release; market reaction to earnings day) | | 2026-04-16 | Q1 earnings follow-on: semi equipment stocks dip despite TSMC high capex plans | Multiple | -2.9% | | 2026-04-17 | Stock recovers +3.6% as market digests guidance raise | Multiple | +3.6% | | 2026-03-31 | ASML Stock Is Up 16% in 2026; analysts see 11% annual returns | TIKR.com | +4.8% | | 2026-03-23 | Why ASML Stock Popped Today — market re-rating on AI demand | Yahoo Finance | +5.5% | | 2026-03-09 | Buy, Sell or Hold at P/E of 36.67x? | Yahoo Finance | +6.3% | | 2026-03-05 | ASML trending stock with increased investor attention | Yahoo Finance | -5.8% | | 2026-03-02 | ASML stock falls amid market uptick | Yahoo Finance | -5.4% | | 2026-01-28 | Q4/FY2025: €32.7B net sales, €9.6B net income; 2026 guidance €34–39B | ASML 6-K | [DATA NEEDED] | | 2026-01-05 | ASML surges 8.8% — indication of further gains? | Yahoo Finance | +5.5% | | 2026-01-02 | ASML stock pops at year start | Yahoo Finance | +13.9% |

Open questions

  1. High-NA EUV adoption timeline: TSMC announced in April 2026 that it is delaying adoption of ASML's Twinscan EXE high-NA systems (Investing.com, 2026-04-22). ASML's 2025 20-F notes expectations about "high-volume production of systems, such as Twinscan EXE." If the high-NA cycle is pushed by 1–2 years, how does this affect ASML's 2027–2030 revenue trajectory and the company's Investor Day targets? Verify in the Q1 2026 earnings call transcript.

  2. China DUV exposure after export restrictions: Export control restrictions limited China DUV shipments in 2024–2025. What percentage of FY2025 revenue came from China, and how much further exposure remains? The 20-F FY2025 notes that ASML may be limited by export control restrictions in providing installed-base services. Verify in the full 20-F geographic revenue breakdown.

  3. Gross margin sustainability at €36–40B scale: ASML guides 51–53% gross margin for 2026 on €36–40B in net sales. As volume mix shifts from DUV to EUV, and EUV fast-ship arrangements (where revenue recognition delays until customer acceptance) become more common, can gross margin hold above 51%? The 20-F FY2025 notes that fast shipments can impact revenue timing. (20-F FY2025, filed 2026-02-25.)

  4. Installed base and services revenue mix: ASML's installed base revenues grow as the cumulative EUV fleet expands, providing higher-margin recurring income. What percentage of FY2025 revenue was from installed base management vs. new system sales? Services margins versus system margins are not separately disclosed in summary data.

  5. Section 232 tariff impact: The December 2025 proclamation imposed a 25% tariff on imports of certain advanced computing chips and derivatives into the U.S., while Taiwanese producers investing in U.S. manufacturing may receive preferential treatment. As ASML's customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) expand U.S. fabs, does this accelerate or complicate ASML's system delivery and support logistics? (20-F FY2025, filed 2026-02-25.)

Red flags / things to verify

Sources

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