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2019 Portuguese legislative election

The 2019 Portuguese legislative election was held on 6 October 2019. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were contested.

Background
2015 Government formation After the 2015 elections, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva asked incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho to form a minority government, as the Portugal Ahead coalition won the most votes and seats in the election. Passos Coelho second government was sworn in on 30 October 2015. However, during this period, the Socialist Party, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party reached a historic agreement in order to bring down the Passos Coelho minority government and support a Socialist minority government led by António Costa. Paulo Portas, CDS–PP leader, labeled the agreement as the Geringonça (), which became the name the left-wing agreement would be known for. On 10 November 2015, the left-wing parties proposed a vote of rejection to the Portugal Ahead's government program, which was approved by a 123 to 107 vote, thus bringing down the government. On 26 November 2015, António Costa was sworn in as Prime Minister. After a few months of cohabitation with President Aníbal Cavaco Silva (PSD), Costa would have to cohabit with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD), the winner of the 2016 presidential election, in which the Socialists did not support any candidate. Costa's term was marred by the 2017 deadly wildfires, in June and in October, with following reports showing mismanagement and lack of response and coordination, and later also by the Tancos arms theft scandal, which would have an impact during the 2019 election campaign. A new party congress was called to elect a new leader. There were two candidates in the ballot: Assunção Cristas, supported by Portas, and Miguel Mattos Chaves, critical of Portas leadership. Cristas was elected by a landslide and the results were the following: Socialist Party Party leader, and Prime Minister, António Costa faced a leadership challenge from party member Daniel Adrião in the party's 2016 leadership election. There were 49,127 party members registered to cast a ballot, and Costa was easily re-elected as party leader with 95% of the votes, compared with the less than 3% for Adrião. Two years later, in May 2018, Costa faced another challenge from Adrião, and was once again re-elected, this time with 96% of the votes, against Adrião's 4%. There were 51,191 party members registered to cast a ballot. Social Democratic Party After a disappointing result in the 2017 local elections, in which the PSD won just 30 percent of the votes and 98 mayoral races against the 38 percent of the PS and its 160 elected mayors, Pedro Passos Coelho announced he would not run for a 5th term as PSD leader. After that, Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto (2002–2013), announced he was running for the leadership. Shortly after, Pedro Santana Lopes, former mayor of Lisbon (2002–2004; 2005) and Prime Minister (2004–2005), announced he was also running for the leadership of the party. Election day was scheduled to January 13, 2018. After a long campaign, Rui Rio was elected with 54.15 percent of the votes, against the 45.85 percent of Santana Lopes. Turnout was 60.3 percent. The results were the following: Rui Rio was officially confirmed as party leader in the PSD congress, in Lisbon, between 16 and 18 February 2018. Just seven months after this leadership election, in early July 2018, Pedro Santana Lopes announced he was leaving the Social Democratic Party and would form his own party. A few weeks later he announced the creation of a new party, the Alliance. Following several months of bad polling for the PSD, Rio's leadership started to be heavily criticized and by January 2019, Luís Montenegro, former PSD parliamentary leader, challenged Rio to call a leadership ballot, with Montenegro announcing his candidacy against Rio. However, Rio refused to call a leadership ballot, but decided to call a motion of confidence on his leadership, which he won by a 75 to 50 vote in favour at a meeting of the party's national council held on 18 January 2019. Following the vote, Montenegro conceded defeat and withdrew his candidacy to the party's leadership. Date According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 13 October 2019. After meeting with all parties, in December 2018, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced that he would call a general election for 6 October 2019. Electoral system The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved. The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties. For these elections, and compared with the 2015 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following: Early voting Voters were also able to vote early, which would happen one week before election day, on 29 September 2019. Voters had to register in order to be eligible to cast an early ballot. Between 22 and 26 September, 56,287 voters requested to vote early. On 29 September, 50,638 voters (90.0 percent of voters that requested) cast an early ballot. ==Parties==
Parties
Parliamentary factions The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 13th legislature (2015–2019) and that also contested the elections: Seat changes • On 7 December 2018, Socialist Party MP Paulo Trigo Pereira announced his departure from the Socialists' caucus, citing policy differences between him and the caucus leadership. He remained in Parliament as an Independent, continuing to support the government. Non represented parties The table below lists smaller parties not represented in the Assembly of the Republic that ran in the elections: ==Campaign period==
Campaign period
Party slogans Candidates' debates With parties represented in Parliament With parties not represented in Parliament A debate between parties not represented in Parliament was also broadcast on RTP1 and RTP3. ==Opinion polling==
Voter turnout
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas. ==Results==
Results
The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) of incumbent Prime Minister Costa obtained the largest share of the vote, and the most seats. Costa said he would look to continue the confidence-and-supply agreement with the Left Bloc and the Unitary Democratic Coalition. The centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) got 27.8 percent of the vote, its worst result since 1983. Portugal's much-vaunted immunity to Europe's far-right wave was interrupted by the election of a debut representative from the nationalist CHEGA party, which scored 1.3 percent overall, with the party's leader stating “this is an historic occasion, it will be the first time in 45 years that a party with these characteristics enters the assembly.” National summary Distribution by constituency Maps File:2019 Portuguese legislative election - Detailed Results.svg|Full results by electoral district. File:2019 Portuguese legislative election - Results.svg|Strongest party by electoral district. File:2019 Portuguese legislative election - Results by Municipality.svg|Strongest party by municipality. File:2019 Portuguese legislative election - Left Results.svg|Vote strength for left-wing parties (BE, CDU, LIVRE) by electoral district. File:2019 Portuguese legislative election - Faction Results.svg|Strongest political faction by electoral district. Left: PS, BE, CDU; Right: PSD, CDS-PP. Electorate ==Aftermath==
Aftermath
Budget rejection and fall of the government After the October 2019 elections, the PS decided to not renew the "Geringonça" (Contraption) deal with the Left Bloc and the Communist Party and opted to govern by making deals with both left and/or right parties in the opposition. After this, budgets and other policies were discussed with all opposition parties, but political instability grew, even during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. In October 2021, BE and PCP announced that they would vote against the government's proposed 2022 budget and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned that if there was no budget, he would dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. On 27 October 2021, Parliament rejected the budget by a 117 to 108 vote, and a snap general election was called for 30 January 2022. ==See also==
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