According to early reports, the flooding was speculated to have been caused by a portion of the
Nanda Devi glacier breaking off early on 7 February, releasing the water trapped behind the ice, and causing a
glacial lake outburst flood. But this was shown to be incorrect as
satellite images showed no lakes in the valley and that a landslide very clearly triggered the events. On 8 February 2021,
The Times, London, reported that a flood was caused by a portion of glacier being torn away and causing a landslide. In satellite images, a scar is visible on the slopes of
Nanda Ghunti, a peak on the southwestern rim of the
Nanda Devi sanctuary, a wall of mountains surrounding the
Nanda Devi massif (Maps 2, 3, and 4). According to an article in
Scientific American, 12 February 2021, data from
Planet Labs was interpreted by Dan Shugar, a geomorphologist at the
University of Calgary, to suggest that a
hanging glacier "15 football fields long and five across" had separated from a mountain and plummeted into the Ronti Gad, a tributary of the Rishiganga (Map 3, 30° 28' N, 79° 45' E; Map 2, lowest left-bank tributary). According to
BBC News, four scientists from the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, India flew over the site in a helicopter, took photographs, and gathered other data; they consider the hanging glacier that cracked and plunged into the Rishiganga basin, to have been attached to a subsidiary peak, Raunthi, 5,600 m (18,372 ft), just below Nanda Ghunti (Map 3, Ronti, at the intersection of 81 and 423). According to Dr. Kalachand Sain, director of the Wadia Institute, climate change is the major factor in the rapid freezing and thawing of ice that causes glacier fractures. A subsequent analysis by
Carbon Brief highlighted how though climate change probably didn't directly cause the outburst – instead a landslide or similar geological change triggered it – however, the
environmental changes caused by climate change probably contributed to the geographic conditions that allowed for the disaster. In June 2021, the
International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters' published a study that confirmed a large rock and ice
avalanche as the cause of the disaster. The result was based on data from earth observation satellites, as well as seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos. The authors estimate the avalanche at about 27 million cubic meters, consisting of 80% rock and 20% glacier ice. The glacier ice turned into water over the course of the 3.2 km elevation difference from the peak, which further worsened the impact by causing a debris flood wave. == Casualties and damage ==