, the
First Minister of Wales, on how the census results will help to inform the decisions made in
Wales and help to "make Wales a more equal country." Following the
2011 census, both the
UK coalition government and the main opposition party,
Labour, expressed concerns about the rising costs of the decadal census. There were also concerns about the value of continuing with the traditional approach adopted for the 2011 census. This included whether collection methods were still fit for purpose in a rapidly changing society and whether census outputs, based on a survey conducted every ten years, would continue to meet the increasingly demanding needs of public and private sector users. Emerging technological developments were seen as providing alternative and improved data gathering opportunities. These concerns and opportunities led the UK Government to question if a supplementary or wholly alternative approach to the traditional 10-yearly census was required; more frequent, possibly annual, small-scale surveys could be employed instead. In 2011,
The Beyond 2011 Programme was established to look at alternatives to the traditional census approach. The UK Statistics Authority coordinated the project which was also undertaken by its counterparts in the devolved administrations of
Scotland and
Northern Ireland. In 2014, the UK Statistics Authority announced the recommendation from the Beyond 2011 Programme that there should be a decennial-style 2021 census in England and Wales, which in contrast with earlier censuses, would be conducted predominantly through online completion of census forms, supplemented by the further use of administrative and survey data. Existing census gathering methods would be used only as an alternative, where online methods are not feasible. A parallel announcement for Scotland's 2021 census was made by the National Records for Scotland. The ONS Director, Population and Demography Statistics was reported as saying that an estimated 60–65% of household returns would be completed online. In April 2014, the
British House of Commons Public Accounts Committee (PAC) concluded in its report
Too soon to scrap the Census, that the 2021 census should go ahead. It had reservations over the lack of investigation into the options for using administrative data and encouraged the UK Government to reassure the public about privacy concerns. The
Minister for the Cabinet Office welcomed the recommendations for a predominantly online 2021 census for England and Wales supplemented by the use of governmental and other administrative data in a letter to the National Statistician in July 2014. He made clear that the Government saw the dual-running decennial national census with administrative data gathering option as a transitional approach and asked the National Statistician to ensure sufficient research is undertaken both prior to and after the 2021 census to find and validate alternative methods to replace the traditional national census and intermediate surveying approach.
Legislation Under the
Census Act 1920, it is for the
United Kingdom Government and
Parliament to determine the arrangements for census-taking in England and Wales. Parallel legislative procedures will be required in the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland. It would be late 2015 at the earliest before regulations were made. Subject to this legislation being passed the census would be conducted on the same day in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to ensure coherence and consistency. The
Census (Return Particulars and Removal of Penalties) Act 2019 makes the same provision for England and Wales. The sexual orientation question would also be asked in Northern Ireland.
Religion The campaign 'If you're not religious, say so!' by
Humanists UK aimed to change the wording of the census question on religion. This campaign encouraged non-religious people to tick 'no religion' in order to create a more accurate portrayal of religiousness in the UK. Another campaign by the Climate Census campaign group suggested writing in 'Climate concerned' in response to the religion question, to demand climate action from the government.
Legal challenge to 'What is your sex' guidance The Office for National Statistics published an online guidance titled
What is your Sex for the 2021 census. The guidance provided that a respondent should answer according to official documents such as their passport.
Self-identification is already recognised in some countries. A gender marker on a British passport can be changed in a less formal procedure than acquiring a legally enforceable
gender recognition certificate. In March 2021, Fair Play for Women, a campaign group against self-identification, applied for judicial review in England and Wales and argued that such incidental self-identification should not be allowed in census-taking. In the absence of opposition or intervention from any interested party, the judge ordered an interim revision of the guidance. The government conceded and accepted the order. The ONS withdrew from the High Court proceedings. Some academics criticised what they said was the ONS's confusion between the concepts of sex and gender identity. Other academics supported the design of the census questions, for example, on the ground that the transgender population is very small.
Position in Scotland In Scotland, similar pieces of guidance have been published since the previous census in 2011. The Scottish Parliament also sought to amend the census Act in 2019 to clarify the meaning of sex in that legislation to include gender identity. The plan was abandoned and changes were instead made in subordinate legislation. In August 2021,
National Records of Scotland issued guidelines regarding the sex question in the 2022 Scottish census. The guidance states that "If you are transgender the answer you give can be different from what is on your birth certificate. You do not need a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC)". The
UK Statistics Authority wrote to National Records of Scotland to question the guidelines. In November 2021, the Murray Blackburn Mackenzie (MBM) policy collective claimed that documents obtained via the
Freedom of Information Act showed that the
Equality and Human Rights Commission put "extreme external pressure" on Scottish civil servants including chief statistician Roger Halliday to amend their initial proposals. In December 2021, Fair Play for Women applied for a judicial review in Scotland.
Lord Sandison dismissed the case on 17 February 2022 stating that there was "no general rule or principle of law that a question as to a person's sex may only properly be answered by reference to the sex stated on that person's birth certificate or
GRC". An appeal by Fair Play for Women was refused by the Inner House of the Court of Session.
Coordination The UK Statistics Authority has the responsibility for coordinating the census arrangements across the United Kingdom through the
Office for National Statistics (ONS), which is also responsible for the census in England and Wales.
2021 census research The
2011 UK census was the first decennial census in the United Kingdom to include the option of completing the census documentation online. Across the UK between 15 and 19% of census forms were submitted online. The UK Statistics Authority proposed that the 2021 census should be conducted predominantly online (with support provided for those unable to complete the census online), supplemented by the use of administrative and survey data and improve annual statistics between censuses. Research has been under way since 2011 to design a new census methodology which maximises the success of an online approach. Research commissioned by the Beyond 2011 programme identified that there were risks associated with over-reliance on administrative data drawn from governmental department sources due to process changes, such as benefits and welfare payments and the necessity to include full access to statistical data as part as proposed legislation affecting administrative programmes. Issues identified also included the accuracy of administrative data sets for geographical areas below that of local authorities, problems associated with estimation and the use of address registers. ONS on behalf of the UK Statistics Authority has taken on board the recommendations of the Skinner Report into methodology work and has proposed three research strands to determine the 'optimum blend' of online census, administrative data and surveying methods for the 2021 census and indeed subsequent censuses. The UK Statistics Authority has commissioned research strands as part of a census transformation programme which was due to report by 2017 relating to the 2021 census operation, the shape of population statistics in 2021, and the shape of population statistics beyond 2021 in the lead up to 2031.
Census work programme A work programme running until 2024, comprising eight phases, was developed by ONS. • Research (ended March 2015) • Design and prototyping (ended December 2016) • Testing (2017) • Development (2018) • Rehearsal (January 2019 – June 2020) • Collection operations (July 2020 – December 2021) • Analysis, output and dissemination (2022–23) • Evaluation / future planning (2023–24) Alongside this programme trials of statistics generation using administrative data were planned starting from the autumn of 2015 and running through to 2021 with the aim of ranging across the breadth, detail and accuracy of census outputs.
Production The contract for preparing, dispatching up to 16 million paper questionnaire packs (for anyone who did not want to, or could not access the census online), and then securely managing, capturing and digitising the responses was awarded to
Leidos Innovations UK. The contract was estimated to be worth around £65.1m. The parent company of Leidos Innovations UK, Leidos (an American defence, aviation, information technology, and biomedical research company), merged with Lockheed Martin's IT sector in August 2016. Lockheed Martin UK was awarded the contract for the census in 2011.
Adecco UK was contracted by ONS to recruit, train and administer the pay for the 30,000 temporary ONS workers who would be working as field staff for the 2021 census.
Changes from 2011 census The general style of the questionnaire was similar to that of the
2011 census, although there were some new questions for 2021: • Are the respondents ex-armed forces? • Voluntary question for 16 and over about sexual orientation.
Advertising An advertising campaign (made under contract by
M&C Saatchi) was launched under the slogan of "it's about us" at the start of 2021. Television adverts tried to show a diverse range of people in various locations in England and Wales in front of a purple fabric screen, with a cover version of
The Zombies' "
This Will Be Our Year", performed by Jose McGill & The Vagaband, featuring as the advert soundtrack. == 2021 census for Northern Ireland ==