Partisan Background In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 legislative districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, was the only district Biden won in 2020 which was currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate election.
Background Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in
1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans
Warren G. Harding,
Calvin Coolidge, and
Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until
1952, when
Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by
Bill Clinton's narrow victory in
1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a
Republican stronghold, but has become a critical
swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate
Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in
2016, while Democratic presidential candidate
Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in
2020. The
Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s. Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.
Campaign This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber. ==Predictions==