Immediate reaction to the results focused on the successful use of
tactical voting to deny AfD first place, and the SPD closing the large gap in pre-election polling as a result. The
ARD exit poll found that 75 percent of SPD voters and 59 percent of CDU voters agreed with the statement "I was not convinced by the party, but I'm voting for it to prevent a strong AfD". The AfD won the most constituencies (
Direktmandat). This was the worst result for CDU in any state election in the east. Lead candidate Jan Redmann was critical of what he called Woidke's "AfD or me" campaign tactics, arguing that it only served to depress the vote share of the other mainstream parties and did not dissuade anyone from voting for AfD. As well, state party leaders criticized CDU Minister-President
Michael Kretschmer of Saxony's endorsement of Woidke in the run-up to the election; general secretary
Gordon Hoffmann called the endorsement "uncooperative" while Redmann stated it was "completely unhelpful" and disappointed CDU campaigners. The CDU campaign was also damaged by Redmann's arrest for
drunk driving in
Potsdam in mid-July. He was stopped driving an electric scooter with a
blood alcohol content of 1.28
per mille (0.128%), well above the 0.5 legal limit and also past the limit of 1.1 where the offense becomes a crime with a potential prison sentence instead of only a fine. Despite questions about his fitness for office, he remained their lead candidate. This was also the worst result for FDP in any state, federal or European election in the party's history. Its total of 12,462 party-list votes, a share of 0.8%, barely eclipsed the 12,450 invalid party-list votes. FDP federal leader
Christian Lindner blamed the poor result on the "tactical situation" and the unpopularity of the federal
traffic light coalition, not on lead candidate
Zyon Braun or any of the campaign. The seat distribution was in doubt for part of election night, as Brandenburg has a version of the "basic mandate clause" (
Grundmandatsklausel) where all parties winning at least one constituency seat are granted full proportional representation according to their share of party-list votes. Both Green MP Marie Schäffer and BVB-FW leader
Péter Vida were competitive in their respective constituencies in Potsdam and
Barnim, though neither ultimately won; their parties lost all of their seats as a result. The Left failed to pass the five-percent
electoral threshold and also lost its seats, marking the first time the party is not represented in a state parliament in the former
East Germany. Dietmar Woidke lost his constituency seat
Spree-Neiße I, which he had represented since 2009, to the AfD candidate Steffen Kubitzki by a margin of seven votes. As all leading candidates are also first on their
party's list, Woidke instead fills one of SPD's thirteen list seats. With more than one-third of seats, AfD has a "blocking minority" (
Sperrminorität) that allows it to veto certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, even if it is not in government. In Brandenburg, this includes the selection of constitutional court judges and approval of state constitutional amendments.
Government formation The incumbent "
Kenya coalition" is no longer possible. With an SPD-CDU coalition one seat short of a majority, and all parties having ruled out working with AfD, the only two mathematically possible majority coalitions are that of SPD and BSW or SPD, BSW and CDU. SPD general secretary
Kevin Kühnert confirmed the day after the election that coalition talks would take place with BSW. In a press conference at SPD headquarters in Berlin later on 23 September, Woidke announced he was inviting both BSW and CDU to begin exploratory talks. BSW leader
Robert Crumbach would not commit to participating in government and suggested the SPD-CDU minority government would be workable. CDU leaders, however, ruled out any participation in government in view of their party's poor results. Hoffmann reacted skeptically to the invitation: "To be honest, I don't know what there is to discuss in these talks...we have no mandate to govern." Exploratory talks between SPD and BSW (
Red–purple coalition) began on 1 October, with a second round occurring the following week. Woidke described good progress but emphasized that "exploratory talks are exploratory talks. The decision is made at the end." The SPD state executive committee scheduled a meeting at the end of the month to potentially consider a recommendation to move forward with negotiations. On 28 October, both parties presented an exploratory paper and reached an agreement on the issue of peace, clearing the way for coalition negotiations to begin. Woidke and Crumbach announced their parties had reached a coalition agreement on 27 November. The coalition has a narrow majority of two seats; talks were threatened when one BSW MdL, Sven Hornauf, publicly stated he would not vote for Woidke in protest of the planned stationing of
Arrow 3 missiles at the
Holzdorf Air Base. However, Crumbach criticized Hornauf for his statement and was able to confirm the coalition would still have the votes for Woidke without him.
Minister-President election The Minister-President election took place on 11 December. Any nominee requires an absolute majority on the first two ballots, and a plurality on the third ballot. One AfD member was absent, placing the absolute majority at 45 of 87 votes. Unexpectedly, Woidke lost two additional votes from his own coalition and failed to win a majority on the first ballot. The second ballot then had five apparent votes from the opposition for Woidke. CDU and AfD leaders each accused the other party of providing those votes, though no claims can be proven as the election is by secret ballot. == See also ==