The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Nationals MP
Adam Marshall, who had held the seat since the
2013. Northern Tablelands is one of the most
conservative seats in NSW, and has been a heartland for the National Party for over a century. While Labor traditionally does poorly in rural New South Wales (particularly rural northeastern New South Wales), Northern Tablelands is particularly hostile territory for Labor even by this region's standards. Northern Tablelands mostly overlaps with the equally conservative federal seat of
New England, which is also a longstanding National stronghold. Labor usually
runs dead in the seat, and therefore did not contest the by-election. Marshall won 83.8% of the
two-party-preferred vote at the
2023 state election, which is equal to a 33.8% margin on the
Mackerras pendulum, emphasising that Northern Tablelands can be classified as a very
safe seat, and the safest seat for any party in the
New South Wales Legislative Assembly. Additionally, excluding by-election results or
redistributions, Northern Tablelands is the seventh-safest seat for any party in any Australian state parliament, and the safest outside
Western Australia.
Previous results ==Candidates==