age by country. A youth bulge is evident for
Africa, and to a lesser extent for the
Middle East,
South Asia,
Southeast Asia, and
Central America. (2022–2023), referring to the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, according to the
Population Reference Bureau. Gary Fuller (1995) described a youth bulge as a type of expansive pyramid.
Gunnar Heinsohn (2003) argues that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest,
war, and
terrorism, as the "third and fourth sons" that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. Heinsohn claims that most historical periods of social unrest lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment) and most
genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge. This factor has been also used to account for the
Arab Spring events and the rise of extremist
populism in the 2010s.
Economic recessions, such as the
Great Depression of the 1930s and the late 2000s
Great Recession, are also claimed to be explained in part due to a large youth population who cannot find jobs. A 2016 study finds that youth bulges increase the chances of non-ethnic civil wars, but not ethnic civil wars. A large population of adolescents entering the labor force and electorate strains at the seams of the economy and polity, which were designed for smaller populations. This creates unemployment and alienation unless new opportunities are created quickly enough – in which case a 'demographic dividend' accrues because productive workers outweigh young and elderly dependents. Yet the 16–29 age range is associated with risk-taking, especially among males. In general, youth bulges in developing countries are associated with higher unemployment and, as a result, a heightened risk of violence and
political instability. For Cincotta and Doces (2011), the transition to more mature age structures is almost a
sine qua non for democratization. To reverse the effects of youth bulges, specific policies such as creating more jobs, improving family planning programs, and reducing overall infant mortality rates should be a priority. File:Egypt population pyramid 2005.svg|Population pyramid of
Egypt in 2005. Many of those 30 and younger are educated citizens who are experiencing difficulty finding work. File:LibyaPopulation2011.jpg|Nearly half of
Libya's 2011 population consisted of people younger than age 20. File: Population pyramid China 2026.png|Population pyramid of
China in 2026.
Middle East and North Africa The
Middle East and
North Africa are currently experiencing a prominent youth bulge. "Across the Middle East, countries have experienced a pronounced increase in the size of their youth populations over recent decades, both in total numbers and as a percentage of the total population. Today, the nearly 111 million individuals aging between 15 to 29 living across the region make up nearly 27 percent of the region's population." Structural changes in service provision, especially health care, beginning in the 1960s created the conditions for a demographic explosion, which has resulted in a population consisting primarily of younger people. It is estimated that around 65% of the regional population is under the age of 25. The youth bulge in the Middle East and North Africa has been favorably compared to that of East Asia, which harnessed this human capital and saw huge economic growth in recent decades. The youth bulge has been referred to by the
Middle East Youth Initiative as a
demographic gift, which, if engaged, could fuel regional economic growth and development. "While the growth of the youth population imposes supply pressures on education systems and labor markets, it also means that a growing share of the overall population is made up of those considered to be of working age; and thus not dependent on the economic activity of others. In turn, this declining dependency ratio can have a positive impact on overall economic growth, creating a demographic dividend. The ability of a particular economy to harness this dividend, however, is dependent on its ability to ensure the deployment of this growing working-age population towards productive economic activity, and to create the jobs necessary for the growing labor force." ==See also==