The current availability of airport capacity has been identified as an important constraint on the ability to meet the increasing demand for air travel. In many cases, airport capacity is already fully used in meeting current demand. At Heathrow and Gatwick airports, the runways are full for "… virtually the whole day". In 2003, the runway at Birmingham Airport was expected to reach full capacity by 2009 at the latest, whilst terminal capacity at Edinburgh Airport had reached its limit. Government forecasts that year suggested that by 2030, the number of passengers could rise to between 400mppa (million people per annum) and 600mppa, representing a two- to threefold increase, and a figure of 500mppa by 2030 was regarded by the government as "robust". In 2006, the government reported that at 228mppa, the demand for air travel the previous year was in line with the 2003 forecast, but also revised the forecast demand for 2030 downwards to 465mppa as a result of capacity constraints, even taking into account proposed airport developments.
Policy In December 2003, the government published
The Future of Air Transport White Paper, which detailed the government's approach to the future development of air transport. The White Paper does not in itself authorise or preclude any development, but seeks instead to define a "national strategic framework for the future development of airport capacity" over the next 30 years. The principal conclusion is that the two extremes of failing to provide additional airport capacity and encouraging growth without regard for the wider impacts are equally unacceptable options. Instead, a "balanced and measured approach" to the future of air transport in the UK is adopted. The government's approach is designed to cater for the forecast growth in demand, thus supporting economic prosperity nationally and enabling ordinary people to travel at reasonable cost, whilst at the same time managing and mitigating the environmental impacts of aviation and ensuring that the costs associated with them are reflected in the price of air travel (see detailed sections below). In December 2006, the government published the
Air Transport White Paper Progress Report 2006 to report on progress made in "… delivering a sustainable future for aviation." The report reiterates the government's commitment to the strategy defined in the original White Paper, stating that it "… strikes the right balance between economic, social and environmental goals." In 2010, the new
Coalition Government abandoned the approach taken in the White Paper and ruled out further airport expansion of London's three main airports (Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted). On 31 October 2011, at the
Airport Operators Association, the
Labour Party's Shadow transport secretary
Maria Eagle announced that the Party had abandoned its support for a third runway at Heathrow Airport, but said that the government must also drop its moratorium on new airport capacity in the South East. On 2 November 2011, the
Thames Hub proposal was launched by
Lord Foster. This attempts to integrate several infrastructure components (flood barrier, hydroelectric generation, rail lines) and includes plans for one of the world's largest airports. It would be capable of handling 150million passengers a year, have four runways, and be built on a platform in the
Hoo Peninsula in
Kent.
Environmental impact Whilst carbon emissions from all UK activities other than aviation had declined by 9 per cent in the 10 years between 1990 and 2000, carbon emissions from aviation activities doubled in the same period. Air transport in the UK accounted for 6.3 per cent of all UK carbon emissions in 2006. When the
radiative forcing impact of other emissions are taken into account, the total impact of emissions attributable to aviation is estimated to be twice that of its carbon emissions alone. Although the government has committed to reducing total UK carbon emissions by 80 per cent from existing levels by 2050, its policy is based on the use of "… economic instruments to ensure that growing industries are catered for within a reducing total." Even if this reduction in total carbon emissions is achieved, research published in February 2006 concluded that aviation could account for between 24 per cent and 50 per cent of the UK's
carbon budget by 2050. The strategy adopted in the White Paper seeks to mitigate the global impact of air transport primarily through
emissions trading schemes. Although the
Kyoto Protocol implemented emissions trading as a means to reduce emissions at national levels, the global nature of air transport means that international (but not domestic) air travel is excluded from this mechanism. The government is seeking to redress this through the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), but progress is slow. In the meantime, efforts are being made to include aviation in the
EU Emission Trading Scheme, with an original target to implement this by 2008. In 2006, the government reaffirmed this policy as the best approach for addressing the climate change impacts of aviation, and current proposals aim at accomplishing this for all flights within the EU by 2011, with the scheme being extended to include all flights to and from the EU the following year. Critics of the government's policy advocate
addressing climate change impacts by
constraining demand for air travel. The study
Predict and Decide - Aviation, climate change and UK policy concludes that the government should seek an alternative aviation policy based on managing demand rather than providing for it. This would be accomplished via a strategy that presumes "… against the expansion of UK airport capacity" and restrains demand by the use of economic instruments to price air travel less attractively. Key to the concerns expressed in these studies are: that vast distances are easily travelled in a relatively short time, entailing substantial greenhouse gas emissions; that these emissions are made at altitude where they have much greater climate consequences than emissions made at ground level; and that social pressures and marketing programs such as
frequent-flyer programs that both encourage a growing amount of travel and means to go. In 2009, climate scientist
Kevin Anderson of the
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research demonstrated that continued annual growth in UK air travel at the usual seven per cent until 2012 and at three per cent thereafter will lead to such travel consuming 70 per cent of the UK's total planned national carbon emissions by 2030. In that less-than-business-as-usual scenario, UK air travel emissions would increase from 11 MT in 2006 to 17 MT in 2012, and 28 MT in 2030. His contention is that the consequences of not promptly reducing the demand or supply for air travel in the UK and elsewhere will result in severe consequences for society and the ecosystems upon which humanity depends. ==See also==