Early 1990s After the
Soviet Union collapsed, the newly formed Russian state tried to maintain control over the post-Soviet space by creating, on 8 December 1991, a regional organization – the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). However,
Belarus, as other republics in the CIS, started to drift away from
Russia, which at that time was attempting to stabilize its broken economy and ties with
the West. In the early 1990s, Russia was concerned that its involvement in the
near abroad state such as Belarus would risk the relations it was trying to build with the West. However, as
NATO began to expand eastward, Russia found itself in a difficult situation. On one hand, it was facing a breakup of the large geopolitical bloc it had once controlled. On the other, it felt that the West was trying to isolate it from the European environment by picking up the pieces of its former empire. This led to the increasing importance of good relations with Belarus. Flag of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic.svg|Flag of the
Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (1954–1991) Flag of Byelorussian SSR.svg|Flag of the
Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (1951–1991)
Mid through end of the 1990s In the mid-1990s and especially with
Alexander Lukashenko coming to power in July 1994, Belarus seemed an ideal candidate for integration with Russia. In order to implement the
Treaty on the Creation of the Economic Union, on 6 January 1995 Russia and Belarus concluded an Agreement on a
bilateral Customs Union. The Parties stated that certain results have been achieved within the framework of the Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Belarus on the Unified Procedure for Regulation of Foreign Economic Activities signed on 12 April 1994 in Moscow. The Agreement on customs union between Russia and Belarus entered into force on 30 November 1995. After that, customs and border controls were abolished. On 26 May 1995, Belarusian president
Alexander Lukashenko and Russian prime minister
Viktor Chernomyrdin dismantled the border post at the
Belarus-Russia border. Russian president
Boris Yeltsin said after signing, in February 1995, the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighborliness and Cooperation with Belarus, that "the two nations [had] shared a common historical experience over many centuries". That, he declared, had "created the basis for signing the treaty and other documents on deeper integration of our two countries. Among all CIS countries, Belarus has the greatest rights to such a relationship due to its geographical location, its contacts with Russia, our friendship and the progress of its reforms." The integration process was launched on 2 April 1996 and exactly a year later, the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded. The culmination of this process was the establishment of a Union State between the RF and Belarus on 8 December 1999. The
Treaty on Equal Rights of Citizens between Belarus and Russia was signed in December 1998, covering
employment, and access to
medical care and
education.
2000s After
Vladimir Putin took office he expressed his deep dissatisfaction with the status of the relations with Belarus and criticized the 1999 treaty, the policy he had set was to put real content into this treaty. His proposal was to continue in the unification either in a federation model which meant that Belarus would join the Russian Federation or build a union which is similar to the
European Union. However, Belarus refused and the status quo was maintained. Despite that, the strategic value of Belarus seemed to continue to rise for Russia because of the international developments. These activities included the United States military activity in the post-Soviet space since the
September 11 attacks in 2001, the eastern European states shift towards the west, the plans to deploy
NATO's
missile defense system in Poland or the Czech Republic, and above all the rise of the
colour revolutions. As a result, despite setbacks in political and economic integration, the military-integration processes between the two states continued. As Russia realized that a full integration with Belarus would be costly, it shifted its foreign policy towards a more pragmatic direction. Two major goals were distinguishable in this policy — The first was to reduce the economic burden which Belarus laid on its economy and the second was to take over the energy transit infrastructure in Belarus. These two goals have influenced most of the conflicts and
Gas Wars between the two countries.
2010s and the Russo-Ukrainian War In 1995, the border of Russia with Belarus was destroyed. However, in 2014, the border was restored from the Belarusian side. In turn, Russia in February 2017 created a border zone on the part of the
Smolensk oblast. Since 2014, following years of embrace of Russian influence in the country, Lukashenko has pressed a revival of Belarusian identity after the start of the
Russo-Ukrainian War: the
Russian annexation of Crimea and
military intervention in Eastern Ukraine. For the first time, he delivered a speech in
Belarusian (rather than Russian, which most people use), in which he said, “We are not Russian — we are Belarusians,” and later encouraged the use of Belarusian. Trade disputes, a border dispute, and a much relaxed official attitude to dissident voices are all part of a weakening of the longtime warm relationship with Russia. On 14 September 2017 Belarusian and Russian relations were back to normal with both conducting military drills. In 2019, Lukashenko had bilateral talks in
Sochi with Russian president
Vladimir Putin and declared that their two countries "could unite tomorrow, no problem." An idea backed by Putin for years, observers have labeled the potential plan a scheme by Putin to remain in power beyond 2024. However, political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov explained that "Lukashenko will play tough to the public while trying to look weak in front of Putin," and the
Carnegie Moscow Center's Artyom Shraibman suggested that "Moscow will most likely fail to find its base among Belarusians."
2020s: Strained relationship and reconciliation On 24 January 2020, signs of new tensions between Belarus and Russia showed when Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko publicly accused Russian president Vladimir Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia. This led to Russia cutting economic subsidies for Belarus. Lukashenko afterwards accused Russia of trying to cover up an attempt to send 200 fighters from a private Russian military firm known as the
Wagner Group into Belarus on a mission to destabilize the country ahead of its 9 August presidential election. On 5 August 2020, Russia's security chief
Dmitry Medvedev warned Belarus to release the contractors. Lukashenko also claimed Russia was lying about its attempts to use the Wagner Group to influence the
upcoming election. Following the presidential election and eruption of new
protests, Lukashenko mentioned by the end of August that Belarus would negotiate refinancing of its state debt worth $1bn with Russia. On 14 September, Lukashenko visited Putin in
Sochi, where the latter promised to loan $1.5bn to Belarus. In February 2022, Russian forces were permitted to
stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Lukashenko stated that Belarusian troops could take part in the invasion if needed. Belarus has also stated that Russia can bring its nuclear weapons onto Belarusian soil. In March 2022,
Oleksandr Kamyshin, head of
Ukrainian Railways, said there is no longer a railway connection between Ukraine and Belarus, so Russian equipment from Belarus will not be able to be delivered. On 25 March 2023, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be stationing tactical nuclear operations in Belarus. On 12 August 2024, Alexander Lukashenko refuted the idea about unification with Russia, stating that any attempt to annex Belarus would result in war. ==Economic relations==