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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego won his first term in office, defeating Republican former news anchor Kari Lake. He succeeded independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.

Background
Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020. ==Democratic primary==
Democratic primary
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus. (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband) (ran for re-election) Endorsements Polling Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton Results ==Republican primary==
Republican primary
Candidates NomineeKari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022 Eliminated in primaryMark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–2024) DeclinedJuan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for (2023–present) • Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023) • Abraham Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022 (endorsed Lake) Endorsements Fundraising Polling Results == Green primary ==
Green primary
The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party. Eliminated in primary • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive • Arturo Hernandez Endorsements Fundraising Results ==Independents==
Independents
Candidates DeclinedKyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–2025) Endorsements Fundraising == General election ==
General election
Predictions Campaign strategy Gallego's campaign emphasized his military service record, highlighting his deployment to Iraq as a Marine Corps infantryman. His campaign positioned his military credentials as evidence of his ability to work across party lines and appeal to independent voters. Lake's campaign focused on her alignment with Trump and emphasized border security and election integrity issues. Post-primary endorsements Debates Post-primary fundraising Polling Aggregate polls Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema } Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate" Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema Results On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well. == Aftermath ==
Aftermath
Similarly to the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, Lake refused to concede defeat. ==Notes==
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