Climate change in France

by France, 1802 to 2020. France strives to have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below what it was in 1990 by 2030. The French government hopes to reach a net emission of zero by 2040. The table below shows the annual total emission of greenhouse gas in France in Megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2). Values for EU27 with the United Kingdom (previously EU28) as well as the values for the world are included to compare trends in emission. The four main emitting sectors in France are transport, agriculture, buildings and industry. In 2017, the French industry (including energy supply and other manufacturing) was responsible for 46% of the total CO2 emission, a number that has been fairly steady since around 2014. The industries and agriculture are responsible for just 20% each of France's CO2 emissions. The table below shows the annual emission of greenhouse gas in France in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita (tCO2/capita). The per capita emission of France in 2019 was just below the average for the world. In 2018, France ranked number 17 in the world with 5.19 tonnes CO2 emitted per capita. Its neighbouring countries the United Kingdom (5.62T CO2/capita) and Germany (9.12T CO2/capita) ranked 14 and 9, respectively. == Effects on the natural environment ==

The current rise in temperature is changing the natural environment in France, from more precipitation during spring and winter to heat waves and fast melting glaciers. All these effects are only expected to get worse with the increasing temperature. Temperature and weather changes During the 20th century, the average annual temperature in mainland France rose by 0.95 °C. Meanwhile, the average annual global temperature rose by 0.74 °C during that same time period. Meaning that France saw an average temperature increase that was around 30% higher compared to the average global temperature rise. If this trend continues by the time the average global temperature has reached 2 °C it would mean that the average temperature in France has increased with almost 3 °C. In present day, warmer summers and cooler winters are already getting more pronounced leading to an increase of 5–35% in autumn and winter rainfall as well as a decrease in summer rainfall, making it the part of the country that is experiencing the highest increase in temperature and highest decrease in annual precipitation. Temperature records , amidst a heat wave, that caused significant damage to forests in Gironde. The hottest year in France on record was in 2020 with an average temperature of 14.0 °C which beat the last record of 13.9 °C in 2018. The all-time hottest day was recorded on the 28th of June 2019, a day that saw a lot of new records during the 2019 European heat wave. With the hottest place being in Gallargues-le-Monteux in Southern France with a staggering 45.9 °C. Heat waves With a decrease in summer precipitation and a global increase of average temperature, heat wave events like the 2018 European heat wave and the 2019 European heat wave set new summer temperature records and are only expected to get more intense and common due to climate change. Sea-level rise With an increase in glacier and polar ice cap melting, sea level rise is expected to increase, affecting both the Atlantic and the Mediterranean coasts. Future climate projections predict that sea levels around France will increase by at least 1 meter by the year 2100. According to future climate models, what remains of the glaciers in the Alps as of the year 2100 compared to 2017, could be nothing more than one-third in a best case scenario regardless if the global carbon emission hits zero. If these emissions continue to rise those glaciers will be gone by 2100. At the Mont Blanc altitudes between 1500 and 2500 meters saw a total of 25 more snow-free days when comparing the years 1964–75 and 2005–2015. Ecosystems More than half of all land in France belongs to agriculture or urban areas, both of which are generally biodiverse poor ecosystems. The most numerous naturally occurring ecosystem is forests. In France around 27% of land and 36% of marine environments fall under some form of protection, like Natura 2000 or the Habitats directive. Current conservation plans to help existing organisms and ecosystems cope with a changing climate is to reduce any other forms of pressure like human interference in order to promote the resilience in those ecosystems as well as more protected areas and stricter rules, legislation and management. Biodiversity are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Plant communities affect the biophysical properties of their surrounding soil through interactions with both microbial communities and animals as well as through adding soil from decaying plant matter and root growth which holds both water and soil in place. With a shift in climate these communities will have to move as well. For plant communities living in the Alps, this is more problematic as according to one source a roughly 100 meter change in altitude corresponds to a difference of 0.5 °C. A higher winter temperature could also be devastating for many forms of hibernating wildlife, as an early spike in temperature would promote hibernating organisms like cold-blooded reptiles and amphibians to wake up, as well as cause plants to flower early. Most of these organisms would not survive if a late winter cold snap were to hit the area. An example is the blueberry, which is sensitive to frost and can therefore become severely damaged if its productivity starts to early. == Effects on people ==

Economic effects Agriculture Climate change is expected to bring longer, warmer summers and less precipitation to France, which will severely affect many of the crops used in agriculture. Due to the warmer weather, the evaporation will be higher and less rain is expected. As most crops currently grown in France are to some extent sensitive to drought, there will likely be a higher need for irrigation, leading to a higher cost of crop production. The warm weather, although it will prolong the growing season, will also shorten the crop growth phases and crops such as oilseed and cereal will hence experience a shorter grain filling phase, resulting in smaller size. Wine production is the second largest trade in France, after aeronautics. In 2017, French wine production had a profit of 8.24 billion Euros (9.97bn USD). High temperatures during the grape maturation period can lead to a reduced quality of the grapes. Drier weather also causes a decreased annual yield, unless more efficient irrigation systems are implemented on vineyards, with the effect of increasing the production costs. With altered future catches, the need for imported fish may increase, imposing a bigger expense than currently. France is one of the biggest producers of marine molluscs in Europe, With climate change, the ocean will take up increased quantities of CO2, resulting in ocean acidification. Calcifying organisms, such as shellfish, will have a harder time producing their skeletal structures, hence decreasing growth rates and potentially increasing mortality. This could lead to significant economic loss for France. For all of Europe, the predicted economic losses due to mollusc production damage is calculated to annually be almost 0.9 billion Euro (1bn USD) by 2100. Railways may also be dislodged, and high temperatures may further make the tracks expand and buckle, causing the need for reparation. Tunnels and other low infrastructures will also be severely affected by extreme rain events and flooding. Increased expenses will come either from building structures to increase flood protection, or from redeveloping and rebuilding transport infrastructures and relocating people in the affected areas. Since then, local authorities have undertaken measures to be more prepared. During the heat waves of 2018 and 2019, despite the latter reaching record high temperatures of 45.9 °C (114.6 °F), With climate change, heat waves are expected to get more intense and frequent in France, Premature deaths due to pulmonary diseases and stroke were previously estimated to 16,000 fatalities annually. More recently, the premature deaths due to the levels of particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrous oxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) were calculated to be over 40,000 people annually. Climate change affects the flow and development of air pollutants and is likely to decrease the over-all health of the population, though it is very difficult to predict what the exact effects will be. With a warmer climate, like that brought about by climate change, there is a risk of an increase in vector- borne diseases such as yellow fever, dengue fever and malaria. Leishmaniasis, a disease transmitted by sandflies, is currently found only in the Mediterranean area, but could spread northwards with a warmer climate. While a warmer climate will likely bring more favourable conditions for the vectors, the exact effects or the extent of the spread also depend on factors such as socioeconomic status and land-use as well as available treatments. == Mitigation ==

Energy transition in Saint-Seine-l'Abbaye. In 2017, the industrial sectors were responsible for 17.6% of the French total energy consumption, with the non industrial sectors standing for the remaining 82.4% of the total energy consumption. Solar power is also being increased so the country will depend on both nuclear and renewables. France has set a goal to get 32% of its total consumed energy from renewable sources by 2030. They also hope to reduce the share of nuclear power for generating electricity from 70% to 50% until 2030 (in 2020, it is still approximately 70% All efforts are in line with a target of carbon neutrality law, which France hopes to reach by 2050. Within the building sector, new houses are built to be low-consuming of energy, and France hopes that the construction of energy-plus houses will be standard after 2021. Further, France has set a law to achieve climate neutrality in 2050. In December 2022 the European Commission approved a law forbidding short-haul flights in France, if people can pass the distance on a train in 2.5 hours. Greenpeace demanded to extend the law, by following the advice of the European Commission to include connecting flights. Greenpeace cited a report according to which, if it will be 6 hours instead of 2.5, it will cut global greenhouse gas emissions by an amount equivalent to 3.5 million tonnes annually. According to the French president Emmanuel Macron France will end sales of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 to meet its targets under the Paris climate accord. The Netherlands is expected to have the same ban by 2025 and some parts of Germany will have a phase-out by 2030. In 2021, French lawmakers also set out to ban domestic flights where train rides taking under two and a half hours are available, in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions. International cooperation delivering a speech at COP27. France hosted the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, where the landmark Paris Agreement was negotiated and agreed. The agreement forms a key international framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation. == Adaptation ==

To adapt to climate change, France has made a National Adaptation Plan. They are currently on the second one, called The Second National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change (NAP-2 or PNACC-2), which is in place from 2018 until 2022. The plan is based on the first plan that was in place from 2011 to 2015, and was revised with a national consultation involving 300 representatives and experts. The plan includes adaption strategies for the main economic and social sectors in the country as well as for the different territories in France. == Society and culture ==

Lawsuits In 2021 the French government was found guilty of not keeping its pledges to reduce greenhouse gases. A court in France convicted the government after four non-governmental organizations (NGO's) had collected 2.3 million signatures from the French people for their petition, which is the largest amount of collected signatures in history. The more than 100 portraits of the president had been stolen from French town halls all over the country, many activists were held responsible for "group theft by deceit". Despite the trials, more than 9,000 protesters showed up and marched with the inverted portraits. The protests were eventually broken up with tear gas and water cannons and around 70 people were arrested. Public perception of climate change lit with green lights during COP21. A nationwide survey in 2017 containing answers from 3,480 French citizens looked at how the general public perceived climate change. According to the study 85% of people believe climate change is happening with only 1.9% being absolutely not sure. A total of 90% of participants believed that human activity is completely or partly responsible for climate change and only 2.5% were found to be climate change deniers. Around 85% showed concern about the effects of climate change. Most concerned were younger people, students and those who are full-time employed. On the other hand, the number of people that believed that their actions could mitigate climate change was found to only be moderate. With many people not knowing what actions to take or believing that their actions would not make any difference. The survey also found that the public's knowledge about climate change was low to moderate, while being high in mid-range educational qualifications, students, the full-time employed and those that had experienced the direct effects of climate change through droughts, floods or extreme storms. Information about climate change in weather forecasts In February 2023, 2 state TV channels, France 2 and France 3 have begun to enter information regarding climate change in their weather forecasts. This will make the forecasts 1.5–2 minutes longer. The climate related information will rely on experts. The channels will also provide information about climate change and the ways stopping it to their workers. In France, except in case of breaking news they will ask reporters to take the train instead of a plane. ==See also==