A 2000 article by
Michael Kulikowski, finding that in traditional historiography "the sequence of events bristles with technical difficulties", bypasses modern historians' accounts, which he finds to have depended upon Gibbon and one another, and reanalysed the literary sources. His conclusion is that a date for the mid-winter crossing of the Rhine of 31 December 405 offers a more coherent chronology of events in
Belgica, Gaul and Britannia. However, Kulikowski's dating theory, which is a revival of arguments that were put forward by
Norman H. Baynes, was forcefully challenged by
Anthony Birley. Kulikowski outlines how 406 came to be selected. The sixth consulship of Arcadius, with Probus as co-
consul, corresponds to 406. Prosper notes the invasion of Italy by Radagaisus as the prime event of 405, as well as his death which actually occurred in 406, and he correctly assigns to 407 the usurpation of
Constantine III. "The three entries are linked, and together they tell a kind of story", Kulikowski observes. "Prosper was writing a chronicle, and the genre abhorred blank years. Since his chosen genre demanded an entry for each of three years, Prosper simply portioned out his sequence of events, one event to the year. He does the same thing elsewhere in the chronicle". Kulikowski notes a contradiction between Prosper's date and the assertions made by a fragment of Olympiodorus of Thebes, Zosimus's
New History (vi.3.1) and Orosius that the Rhine crossing and the presence of barbarians in Gaul provoked the usurpation of
Marcus in Britannia: the latter occurred in the course of 406, thus preceded the 31 December 406 date, and therefore the Rhine crossing must have happened earlier. Kulikowski's proposed date of 31 December 405 places the acclamation of the first of the usurpers in Britannia, which was characterised as a fearful reaction to the barbarian presence in Gaul, after the crossing of the Rhine. With the traditional date of 31 December 406 in mind, much has been made of the inaction of Stilicho, which is sometimes imputed to his strategy focussed on ambitions in
Illyria. Kulikowski's date of 31 December 405 places Stilicho fully occupied in
Tuscia battling the forces of Radagaisus, who was finally overcome and executed at the
Battle of Faesulae in August 406. == Aftermath ==