It is estimated that, before 2007, 50,000 civil government employees, as well as employees of other organizations
listed in Annex A of Order No. 2, were removed from their positions as a result of de-Ba'athification.
Affected occupations The occupations affected by the de-Ba'athification policy include: • All civil servants in any government ministry affiliated with the Ba'ath Party Furthermore, the general elimination of engineers, directors, and technocrats meant that Iraqi government ministries had difficulty in fulfilling their duties to Iraqi citizens. The review also states that 32,000 were given training to replace removed employees, but other sources, such as Rajiv Chandrasekaran's book ''Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq's Green Zone'', describes how Sunni dominated areas were left with only one or two schoolteachers as a result of de-Ba'athification. An
al-Jazeera article dated 18 November 2003 discusses the future of the Ba'ath Party, but also questions the validity of likening the Ba'ath Party to the Nazi Party, as well as the dissolution of the Ba'ath Party and the possible impact on Iraqi society. There are however, sources that discuss the positive impact on Iraqi political culture. A report written by a researcher from the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a research institute in Washington, D.C., advocates a carefully calculated de-Ba'athification program, particularly in the political and security arenas as a way of laying the foundation for successful regime change. This created a significant gap in participation between
Shi'a Arab and
Kurdish and Sunni Arab organizations in what became the new public/political sphere.
Representation The overall alienation experienced by many Sunni Arabs reflected in their lack of representation in the initial formations of governments because of high affiliation with the Ba'ath Party within the Sunni Arab population. As a consequence many Sunni Arabs chose to boycott the electoral process, protesting what they felt was a policy which excluded and discriminated against Sunni Arabs as a minority group.
Sunnis The Sunnis hardly participated in the
January 2005 Iraqi parliamentary elections, due to
a boycott initiated by the major Sunni Arab parties.
Juan Cole, a noted U.S. historian and commentator on the Middle East, suggested in August 2005 that the boycott had been partly caused by the punitive policies towards ex-Baathists, and thus towards the Sunni Arabs, conducted by the then current
Iraqi Transitional Government dominated by Shiite and Kurdish parties; former Baath Party members couldn't hold high government posts, yet generally hadn't been convicted of any crime as persons. Cole warned that the U.S. needed to combat this commitment to de-Ba'athification of the then-current Iraqi government "if the Sunni Arabs are going to be drawn into the new government".
Shi'a As a result of many Sunni Arab political leaders being removed from participation in the future democracy of Iraq, many dissident domestic, and exiled Shi'a political leaders formed many political parties and organizations, and came to be seen as dominant in the government. This was also a generally expected result given the Shi'a in Iraq are a religious majority in Iraq.
Kurds Within the Kurdish population, the idea behind de-Ba'athification was generally supported.
Beneficiaries In the letter of the Orders, the primary beneficiaries of the de-Ba'athification policy were the Iraqi people. The policy was enacted for their benefit and welfare, recognizing that they had suffered under the Ba'athist regime of Saddam Hussein. However, other beneficiaries of these policies included dissidents within Iraq and the exiles that returned to Iraq following the US invasion.
Politicians and Dissidents One of the groups that benefited from the de-Ba'athification policy was the
Iraqi National Congress (INC), a dissident Iraqi political movement-in-exile, headed by Dr. Ahmad Chalabi. In general, the policy crippled the provision of services in one of two ways: government ministries functioned at less than optimum capacity because of incompetent leadership following the removal of Ba'athist technocrats, or government ministries effectively ceased to function as a result of Ba'athist technocrats removed under de-Ba'athification.
Lost productivity Linking de-Ba'athification with lost productivity of the Iraqi economy is difficult because it is hard to separate what can reasonably be attributed as lost productivity from the removal of thousands of Ba'ath party member civil servants from damage to infrastructure from looting and the invasion campaign. However, it is likely that Iraq's economic output was hindered by the de-Ba'athification policy because of the large size of the public sector in Iraq, which was crippled by the de-Ba'athification policy. As a result, many ministries were left understaffed.
Lack of basic services There is general agreement among analysts of the de-Ba'athification policy, both critics and proponents, that one of the deleterious effects was the loss of vital public services. The loss of these services comes from the general reality that many Ba'ath Party members were
technocrats within government ministries, meaning that they had specific skillsets that allowed them to fulfill necessary government functions effectively. A particular instance of de-Ba'athification crippling the ability of a ministry to function was the case of the
Ministry of Finance. Many mid-level ministry employees were fired because of connections to the Ba'ath Party, which left the ministry grossly understaffed.
Government competency Government competency was greatly diminished by the de-Ba'athification process because many skilled individuals within the basic ministries of government were removed from their posts. As a result, many basic services either were not available, or did not function properly as a result of the removal of skilled, knowledgeable individuals. As such, many Iraqis removed under the de-Ba'athification program expressed frustration that they were being targeted for membership when it was a
de facto requirement for career advance, and had little to do with their personal ideologies or political positions.
Unemployment Unemployment reached as high as 27% as a result of the military dissolution according to some figures. It is not entirely clear that the totality of unemployment is purely a result of de-Ba'athification, as some unemployment resulted from combat-damaged infrastructure. However, the public sector clearly suffered a great deal as a result of de-Ba'athification and the disbanding of the Iraqi military and affiliated entities with conservative job-loss estimates in the thousands. Damage estimates as a result of the looting, a great deal of which occurred prior to the de-Ba'athification Order but was likely exacerbated by the unemployment spike created by de-Ba'athification, were placed at approximately $400 million. In Charles Ferguson's book No End in Sight: Iraq's Descent into Chaos, he notes that during the 2003–2004 period the number of crimes committed greatly exceeded the crippled Interior Ministry's police force and CPA authorities abilities to prevent crime, conduct investigations, and establish general order in Iraq.
Unrest As a result of being fired, many Iraqi soldiers and Ba'ath Party members protested outside their former places of employment or in squares where they would be visible to Coalition Forces and the CPA. With the unemployment rate exacerbated by de-Ba'athification, the unrest of previously employed civil servants and military personnel contributed to the overall decay of the security situation in Iraq.
Sectarian relations In Anthony Shadid's book Night Draws Near: Iraq's People in the Shadow of America's War, he describes several Iraqis who exhibit a high degree of tolerance for the different religions within Iraq. Some of his interlocutors highlighted intermarriage among Iraqis as evidence for the minimal weight placed on sectarian divisions. One of the main concerns regarding the de-Ba'athification strategy was that it would both create new sectarian tensions in Iraq, and exacerbate pre-invasion tensions. To the extent that this occurred, many in Iraq expressed some amount of concern over the potential for sectarian divisions to shape Iraqi social and political life. As a result of de-Ba'athification and other government structuring policies, sectarian divisions increased, with the result of Sunni Arabs, prominently represented in the Ba'ath Party, feeling increasingly isolated from Iraqi political and social life.
Security impact The security impact of the de-Ba'athification policy and the Order No. 2 disbanding the military were devastating in terms of their security impact. One of the most senior military officials in the United States, Admiral
Mike Mullen states that the de-Ba'athification policy coupled with the disbanding of the Iraqi military created security problems, and unnecessary sectarian tension. The Admiral stated that the Iraqi military could have been used to help secure the country more quickly, but instead its disbandment contributed to the overall decay in security.
Growth of insurgency Most sources regarding the
Iraq War generally agree that CPA policies, such as de-Ba'athification and CPA Order Number 2 disbanding the Iraqi military and other security apparatuses exacerbated or created the insurgency in Iraq. Supporting this view is Rajiv Chandrasekaran's conversation with a former soldier in the
Iraqi Army: : Chandrasekaran: "What happened to everyone there? Did they join the new army?" : Soldier: "They're all insurgents now. Bremer lost his chance." This quote also reveals that the insurgency was not only a means of expressing anger at a Coalition occupation of Iraq, but also motivated by economic and employment necessities. With thousands of ostracized Ba'ath Party members and hundreds of thousands of soldiers rendered unemployed, joining the insurgency could provide a means to a monthly income to provide for one's family "in a land bereft of jobs". One of the other reasons for the growth of a specifically Sunni insurgency was the fact that they felt alienated by the de-Ba'athfication policy and saw the insurgency as a means of retaliation. ==Repeal and transfer of authority==