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Effect size

In statistics, an effect size is a quantitative measure of the magnitude of a phenomenon. It can refer to the value of a statistic calculated from a sample of data, the value of one parameter for a hypothetical population, or the equation that operationalizes how statistics or parameters lead to the effect size value. Examples of effect sizes include the correlation between two variables, the regression coefficient in a regression, the mean difference, and the risk of a particular event. Effect sizes are a complementary tool for statistical hypothesis testing, and play an important role in statistical power analyses to assess the sample size required for new experiments. Effect size calculations are fundamental to meta-analysis, which aims to provide the combined effect size based on data from multiple studies. The group of data-analysis methods concerning effect sizes is referred to as estimation statistics.

Overview
Population and sample effect sizes As in statistical estimation, the true effect size is distinguished from the observed effect size. For example, to measure the risk of disease in a population (the population effect size) one can measure the risk within a sample of that population (the sample effect size). Conventions for describing true and observed effect sizes follow standard statistical practices—one common approach is to use Greek letters like ρ [rho] to denote population parameters and Latin letters like r to denote the corresponding statistic. Alternatively, a "hat" can be placed over the population parameter to denote the statistic, e.g. with \hat\rho being the estimate of the parameter \rho. As in any statistical setting, effect sizes are estimated with sampling error, and may be biased unless the effect size estimator that is used is appropriate for the manner in which the data were sampled and the manner in which the measurements were made. An example of this is publication bias, which occurs when scientists report results only when the estimated effect sizes are large or are statistically significant. As a result, if many researchers carry out studies with low statistical power, the reported effect sizes will tend to be larger than the true (population) effects, if any. Another example where effect sizes may be distorted is in a multiple-trial experiment, where the effect size calculation is based on the averaged or aggregated response across the trials. Smaller studies sometimes show different, often larger, effect sizes than larger studies. This phenomenon is known as the small-study effect, which may signal publication bias. Relationship to test statistics Sample-based effect sizes are distinguished from test statistics used in hypothesis testing, in that they estimate the strength (magnitude) of, for example, an apparent relationship, rather than assigning a significance level reflecting whether the magnitude of the relationship observed could be due to chance. The effect size does not directly determine the significance level, or vice versa. Given a sufficiently large sample size, a non-null statistical comparison will always show a statistically significant result unless the population effect size is exactly zero (and even there it will show statistical significance at the rate of the Type I error used). For example, a sample Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.01 is statistically significant if the sample size is 1000. Reporting only the significant p-value from this analysis could be misleading if a correlation of 0.01 is too small to be of interest in a particular application. Standardized and unstandardized effect sizes The term effect size can refer to a standardized measure of effect (such as r, Cohen's d, or the odds ratio), or to an unstandardized measure (e.g., the difference between group means or the unstandardized regression coefficients). Standardized effect size measures are typically used when: • the metrics of variables being studied do not have intrinsic meaning (e.g., a score on a personality test on an arbitrary scale), • results from multiple studies are being combined, • some or all of the studies use different scales, or • it is desired to convey the size of an effect relative to the variability in the population. In meta-analyses, standardized effect sizes are used as a common measure that can be calculated for different studies and then combined into an overall summary. ==Interpretation==
Interpretation
The interpretation of an effect size of being small, medium, or large depends on its substantive context and its operational definition. Jacob Cohen recommended that the rules of thumb for effect sizes should be revised, and expanded the descriptions to include very small, very large, and huge. Funder and Ozer noted for a medium effect size, "you'll choose the same n regardless of the accuracy or reliability of your instrument, or the narrowness or diversity of your subjects. Clearly, important considerations are being ignored here. Researchers should interpret the substantive significance of their results by grounding them in a meaningful context or by quantifying their contribution to knowledge, and Cohen's effect size descriptions can be helpful as a starting point." They instead suggested that norms should be based on distributions of effect sizes from comparable studies. Thus a small effect (in absolute numbers) could be considered large if the effect is larger than similar studies in the field. See Abelson's paradox and Sawilowsky's paradox for related points. The table below contains descriptors for various magnitudes of d, r, f and omega, as initially suggested by Jacob Cohen, ==Types==
Types
About 50 to 100 different measures of effect size are known. Many effect sizes of different types can be converted to other types, as many estimate the separation of two distributions, so are mathematically related. For example, a correlation coefficient can be converted to a Cohen's d and vice versa. Correlation family: Effect sizes based on "variance explained" These effect sizes estimate the amount of the variance within an experiment that is "explained" or "accounted for" by the experiment's model (Explained variation). Pearson r or correlation coefficient Pearson's correlation, often denoted r and introduced by Karl Pearson, is widely used as an effect size when paired quantitative data are available; for instance if one were studying the relationship between birth weight and longevity. The correlation coefficient can also be used when the data are binary. Pearson's r can vary in magnitude from −1 to 1, with −1 indicating a perfect negative linear relation, 1 indicating a perfect positive linear relation, and 0 indicating no linear relation between two variables. Coefficient of determination (r2 or R2) A related effect size is r2, the coefficient of determination (also referred to as R2 or "r-squared"), calculated as the square of the Pearson correlation r. In the case of paired data, this is a measure of the proportion of variance shared by the two variables, and varies from 0 to 1. For example, with an r of 0.21 the coefficient of determination is 0.0441, meaning that 4.4% of the variance of either variable is shared with the other variable. The r2 is always positive, so does not convey the direction of the correlation between the two variables. Eta-squared (η2) Eta-squared describes the ratio of variance explained in the dependent variable by a predictor while controlling for other predictors, making it analogous to the r2. Eta-squared is a biased estimator of the variance explained by the model in the population (it estimates only the effect size in the sample). This estimate shares the weakness with r2 that each additional variable will automatically increase the value of η2. In addition, it measures the variance explained of the sample, not the population, meaning that it will always overestimate the effect size, although the bias grows smaller as the sample grows larger. \eta ^2 = \frac{SS_\text{Treatment}}{SS_\text{Total}} . Omega-squared (ω2) A less biased estimator of the variance explained in the population is ω2 \omega^2 = \frac{\text{SS}_\text{treatment}-df_\text{treatment} \cdot \text{MS}_\text{error}}{\text{SS}_\text{total} + \text{MS}_\text{error}} . This form of the formula is limited to between-subjects analysis with equal sample sizes in all cells. In addition, methods to calculate partial ω2 for individual factors and combined factors in designs with up to three independent variables have been published. The f^{2} effect size measure for sequential multiple regression and also common for PLS modeling is defined as: f^2 = {R^2_{AB} - R^2_A \over 1 - R^2_{AB}} where R2A is the variance accounted for by a set of one or more independent variables A, and R2AB is the combined variance accounted for by A and another set of one or more independent variables of interest B. By convention, f2 effect sizes of 0.1^2, 0.25^2, and 0.4^2 are termed small, medium, and large, respectively. \theta = \frac{\mu_1 - \mu_2} \sigma, where μ1 is the mean for one population, μ2 is the mean for the other population, and σ is a standard deviation based on either or both populations. In the practical setting the population values are typically not known and must be estimated from sample statistics. The several versions of effect sizes based on means differ with respect to which statistics are used. This form for the effect size resembles the computation for a t-test statistic, with the critical difference that the t-test statistic includes a factor of \sqrt{n}. This means that for a given effect size, the significance level increases with the sample size. Unlike the t-test statistic, the effect size aims to estimate a population parameter and is not affected by the sample size. SMD values of 0.2 to 0.5 are considered small, 0.5 to 0.8 are considered medium, and greater than 0.8 are considered large. Cohen's d Cohen's d is defined as the difference between two means divided by a standard deviation for the data, i.e. d = \frac{\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2} s. Jacob Cohen defined s, the pooled standard deviation, as (for two independent samples): s = \sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)s^2_1 + (n_2-1)s^2_2}{n_1+n_2 - 2}} where the variance for one of the groups is defined as s_1^2 = \frac 1 {n_1-1} \sum_{i=1}^{n_1} (x_{1,i} - \bar{x}_1)^2, and similarly for the other group. Other authors choose a slightly different computation of the standard deviation when referring to "Cohen's d" where the denominator is without "-2" s = \sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)s^2_1 + (n_2-1)s^2_2}{n_1+n_2}} This definition of "Cohen's d" is termed the maximum likelihood estimator by Hedges and Olkin, Cohen's d is frequently used in estimating sample sizes for statistical testing. A lower Cohen's d indicates the necessity of larger sample sizes, and vice versa, as can subsequently be determined together with the additional parameters of desired significance level and statistical power. Glass' Δ In 1976, Gene V. Glass proposed an estimator of the effect size that uses only the standard deviation of the second group is like the other measures based on a standardized difference CRTs involve randomising clusters, such as schools or classrooms, to different conditions and are frequently used in education research. Ψ, root-mean-square standardized effect A similar effect size estimator for multiple comparisons (e.g., ANOVA) is the Ψ root-mean-square standardized effect: :\beta = \frac{\mu_1 - \mu_2}{\sqrt{\sigma_1^2 + \sigma_2^2 - 2\sigma_{12} }}. If the two groups are independent, :\beta = \frac{\mu_1 - \mu_2}{\sqrt{\sigma_1^2 + \sigma_2^2 }}. If the two independent groups have equal variances \sigma^2, :\beta = \frac{\mu_1 - \mu_2}{\sqrt{2}\sigma}. Other metrics Mahalanobis distance (D) is a multivariate generalization of Cohen's d, which takes into account the relationships between the variables. Categorical family: Effect sizes for associations among categorical variables Commonly used measures of association for the chi-squared test are the Phi coefficient and Cramér's V (sometimes referred to as Cramér's phi and denoted as φc). Phi is related to the point-biserial correlation coefficient and Cohen's d and estimates the extent of the relationship between two variables (2 × 2). Cramér's V may be used with variables having more than two levels. Phi can be computed by finding the square root of the chi-squared statistic divided by the sample size. Similarly, Cramér's V is computed by taking the square root of the chi-squared statistic divided by the sample size and the length of the minimum dimension (k is the smaller of the number of rows r or columns c). φc is the intercorrelation of the two discrete variables and may be computed for any value of r or c. However, as chi-squared values tend to increase with the number of cells, the greater the difference between r and c, the more likely V will tend to 1 without strong evidence of a meaningful correlation. Cohen's omega (ω) Another measure of effect size used for chi-squared tests is Cohen's omega ( \omega). This is defined as \omega = \sqrt{ \sum_{i=1}^m \frac{ (p_{1i} - p_{0i})^2 }{p_{0i}} } where p0i is the proportion of the ith cell under H0, p1i is the proportion of the ith cell under H1 and m is the number of cells. Odds ratio The odds ratio (OR) is another useful effect size. It is appropriate when the research question focuses on the degree of association between two binary variables. For example, consider a study of spelling ability. In a control group, two students pass the class for every one who fails, so the odds of passing are two to one (or 2/1 = 2). In the treatment group, six students pass for every one who fails, so the odds of passing are six to one (or 6/1 = 6). The effect size can be computed by noting that the odds of passing in the treatment group are three times higher than in the control group (because 6 divided by 2 is 3). Therefore, the odds ratio is 3. Odds ratio statistics are on a different scale than Cohen's d, so this '3' is not comparable to a Cohen's d of 3. Relative risk The relative risk (RR), also called risk ratio, is simply the risk (probability) of an event relative to some independent variable. This measure of effect size differs from the odds ratio in that it compares probabilities instead of odds, but asymptotically approaches the latter for small probabilities. Using the example above, the probabilities for those in the control group and treatment group passing is 2/3 (or 0.67) and 6/7 (or 0.86), respectively. The effect size can be computed the same as above, but using the probabilities instead. Therefore, the relative risk is 1.28. Since rather large probabilities of passing were used, there is a large difference between relative risk and odds ratio. Had failure (a smaller probability) been used as the event (rather than passing), the difference between the two measures of effect size would not be so great. While both measures are useful, they have different statistical uses. In medical research, the odds ratio is commonly used for case-control studies, as odds, but not probabilities, are usually estimated. Relative risk is commonly used in randomized controlled trials and cohort studies, but relative risk contributes to overestimations of the effectiveness of interventions. Risk difference The risk difference (RD), sometimes called absolute risk reduction, is simply the difference in risk (probability) of an event between two groups. It is a useful measure in experimental research, since RD tells you the extent to which an experimental interventions changes the probability of an event or outcome. Using the example above, the probabilities for those in the control group and treatment group passing is 2/3 (or 0.67) and 6/7 (or 0.86), respectively, and so the RD effect size is 0.86 − 0.67 = 0.19 (or 19%). RD is the superior measure for assessing effectiveness of interventions. They used the following example (about heights of men and women): "in any random pairing of young adult males and females, the probability of the male being taller than the female is .92, or in simpler terms yet, in 92 out of 100 blind dates among young adults, the male will be taller than the female", is a measure of how often the values in one distribution are larger than the values in a second distribution. Crucially, it does not require any assumptions about the shape or spread of the two distributions. The sample estimate d is given by: d = \frac{\sum_{i,j} [x_i > x_j] - [x_i where the two distributions are of size n and m with items x_i and x_j, respectively, and [\cdot] is the Iverson bracket, which is 1 when the contents are true and 0 when false. d is linearly related to the Mann–Whitney U statistic; however, it captures the direction of the difference in its sign. Given the Mann–Whitney U, d is: d = \frac{2U}{mn} - 1 Cohen's g One of simplest effect sizes for measuring how much a proportion differs from 50% is Cohen's g. It measures how much a proportion differs from 50%. For example, if 85.2% of arrests for car theft are males, then effect size of sex on arrest when measured with Cohen's g is g = 0.852-0.5=0.352. In general: g = P - 0.50 \text{ or } 0.50 - P \quad (\text{directional}), g = |P - 0.50| \quad (\text{nondirectional}). Units of Cohen's g are more intuitive (proportion) than in some other effect sizes. It is sometime used in combination with Binomial test. == Confidence intervals by means of noncentrality parameters ==
Confidence intervals by means of noncentrality parameters
Confidence intervals of standardized effect sizes, especially Cohen's {d} and f^2, rely on the calculation of confidence intervals of noncentrality parameters (ncp). A common approach to construct the confidence interval of ncp is to find the critical ncp values to fit the observed statistic to tail quantiles α/2 and (1 − α/2). The SAS and R-package MBESS provides functions to find critical values of ncp. t-test for mean difference of single group or two related groups For a single group, M denotes the sample mean, μ the population mean, SD the sample's standard deviation, σ the population's standard deviation, and n is the sample size of the group. The t value is used to test the hypothesis on the difference between the mean and a baseline μbaseline. Usually, μbaseline is zero. In the case of two related groups, the single group is constructed by the differences in pair of samples, while SD and σ denote the sample's and population's standard deviations of differences rather than within original two groups. t := \frac{M - \mu_{\text{baseline}}}{\text{SE}} = \frac{M- \mu_{\text{baseline}}}{\text{SD}/\sqrt{n}}=\frac{\sqrt{n} \left( \frac{M-\mu}{\sigma} \right) + \sqrt{n} \left( \frac{\mu-\mu_\text{baseline}}{\sigma}\right) }{\frac{\text{SD}} \sigma} ncp=\sqrt{n} \left( \frac{\mu-\mu_\text{baseline}}{\sigma} \right) and Cohen's d := \frac{M-\mu_\text{baseline}}{\text{SD}} is the point estimate of \frac{\mu-\mu_\text{baseline}} \sigma. So, :\tilde{d}=\frac{ncp}{\sqrt n}. t-test for mean difference between two independent groups n1 or n2 are the respective sample sizes. t:=\frac{M_1-M_2}{\text{SD}_\text{within}/\sqrt{\frac{n_1 n_2}{n_1+n_2}}}, wherein \text{SD}_\text{within}:=\sqrt{\frac{\text{SS}_\text{within}}{\text{df}_\text{within}}} = \sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)\text{SD}_1^2+(n_2-1) \text{SD}_2^2}{n_1+n_2-2}}. ncp=\sqrt{\frac{n_1 n_2}{n_1+n_2}}\frac{\mu_1-\mu_2} \sigma and Cohen's d:=\frac{M_1-M_2}{SD_\text{within}} is the point estimate of \frac{\mu_1-\mu_2} \sigma. So, \tilde{d}=\frac{ncp}{\sqrt{\frac{n_1 n_2}{n_1+n_2}}}. One-way ANOVA test for mean difference across multiple independent groups One-way ANOVA test applies noncentral F distribution. While with a given population standard deviation \sigma, the same test question applies noncentral chi-squared distribution. F := \frac{\frac{\text{SS}_\text{between}}{\sigma^2}/\text{df}_\text{between}}{\frac{\text{SS}_\text{within}}{\sigma^2}/\text{df}_\text{within}} For each j-th sample within i-th group Xi,j, denote M_i (X_{i,j}) := \frac{\sum_{w=1}^{n_i} X_{i,w}}{n_i};\; \mu_i (X_{i,j}) := \mu_i. While, \begin{align} \text{SS}_\text{between}/\sigma^2 & = \frac{\text{SS}\left(M_i (X_{i,j}); i=1,2,\dots,K,\; j=1,2,\dots,n_{i}\right)}{\sigma^2}\\ & = \text{SS}\left(\frac{M_i(X_{i,j}-\mu_i)}{\sigma}+\frac{\mu_i}{\sigma};i=1,2,\dots,K,\; j=1,2,\dots,n_i \right)\\ & \sim \chi^2\left(\text{df}=K-1,\; ncp=SS\left(\frac{\mu_i(X_{i,j})}{\sigma};i=1,2,\dots,K,\; j=1,2,\dots,n_i\right)\right) \end{align} So, both ncp(s) of F and \chi^2 equate \text{SS}\left(\mu_i(X_{i,j})/\sigma;i=1,2,\dots,K,\; j=1,2,\dots,n_i \right). In case of n:=n_1=n_2=\cdots=n_K for K independent groups of same size, the total sample size is N := n·K. \text{Cohens }\tilde{f}^2 := \frac{\text{SS}(\mu_1,\mu_2, \dots ,\mu_K)}{K\cdot\sigma^2} = \frac{\text{SS} \left(\mu_i(X_{i,j})/\sigma; i=1,2,\dots,K,\; j=1,2,\dots,n_i \right)}{n\cdot K} = \frac{ncp}{n\cdot K}=\frac{ncp}N. The t-test for a pair of independent groups is a special case of one-way ANOVA. Note that the noncentrality parameter ncp_F of F is not comparable to the noncentrality parameter ncp_t of the corresponding t. Actually, ncp_F = ncp_t^2, and \tilde{f} = \left|\frac{\tilde{d}}{2}\right|. ==See also==
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