Market2025 Argentine legislative election
Company Profile

2025 Argentine legislative election

Legislative elections were held in Argentina on 26 October 2025. Nearly half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the seats in the Senate were contested.

Background
These midterm elections were the first during the presidency of Javier Milei; his libertarian economic reform agenda was top of mind for many voters. The election took place in the aftermath of the 2025 elections in the 2025 Buenos Aires provincial election in which Homeland Force of Governor Axel Kicillof achieved a resounding victory in the province obtaining 47% of the vote compared to 33% of La Libertad Avanza. The results featured the Peronist alliance far over performing polls. As a result of the election, the Argentine Peso lost 5% against the dollar and Argentine stocks slid around 15%.During a 14October White House meeting with Milei, US president Donald Trump conditioned a US$20billion currency swap (in which two governments agree to trade currencies at a fixed rate rather than on the open market) on the electoral success of Milei's party La Libertad Avanza in the election. Trump stated, "If [Milei doesn't win, we're gone", and that "If [Milei] loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina." The next day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that an additional US$20billion in financial aid could be provided to Argentina through sovereign funds and investments from private banks. The deal was widely reported as a bailout that prevented Argentina from going into default. The Central Bank of Argentina announced the signature of the first US$20 billion currency swap agreement on 20 October. ==Electoral system==
Electoral system
The 2025 elections were the first in which the unified paper ballot (in , BUP) system was used, following a 2024 reform of the electoral law. It was also be the first time at the national level since the 2011 Argentine general election without Open, Mandatory and Simultaneous Primaries (PASO); the PASO primary election system was suspended ahead of the 2025 contest but was still legally in place. Chamber of Deputies The 257 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by proportional representation in 24 multi-member constituencies based on the provinces (plus the City of Buenos Aires). Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with a 3% electoral threshold. In the 2025 election, 127 of the 257 seats were up for renewal for a four-year term. Senate The 72 members of the Senate are elected in the same 24 provinces, with three seats in each. The party receiving the most votes in each constituency wins two seats, with the third seat awarded to the second-placed party. In this election, one-third of senate seats were up for election, namely those for the eight provinces of Chaco, Entre Ríos, Neuquén, Río Negro, Salta, Santiago del Estero, Tierra del Fuego, and the City of Buenos Aires. ==Opinion polls==
Opinion polls
Polling chart Opinion polling for the 2025 Argentine legislative election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted. Kirchnerism and Federal Peronism entries were merged into UXP. 2025 2024 == Results ==
Results
Chamber of Deputies Senate == Analysis ==
Analysis
This was the first election in which the new single paper ballot system was introduced for national elections. The new system replaces individual party ballots with a unified paper listing all candidates. Parties had to print their own ballots in the previous system, leading towards bias towards wealthier parties as well as the ability to bury opponent parties in a sea of ballots. Nicolás Mayoraz, president of the Constitutional Affairs Committee, hailed the law as a victory for democracy. He claimed it would end corrupt practices like ballot theft. LLA and PRO and some Peronist parties were in favour of this reform, while the opposition coalition Homeland Force were against it. Data released at 1 pm on election day showed that 23% of the electorate had cast their ballots by 12 pm, a substantial drop from the 2023 Argentine general election in which voter turnout was 30.3% by the same time, although midterm elections (in which the office of President is not up for election) typically have lower turnout. At 9:25pm, results were published. Despite disapproval ratings reaching 53% in a September poll, Milei's LLA finished in first place with 40.84% of the vote, and the largest opposition party, the Peronist coalition Homeland Force, finished in second place with 31.63% of the vote. Turnout remained lower than usual, at 67.85% of the 36million eligible voters, the lowest tally for a national election since the return of democracy with the 1983 Argentine general election. Prior polling forecasted LLA attaining 30 to 35% of the vote and the Homeland Force on about the same support. The elections were a decisive victory for Milei, whose party rebounded despite several political setbacks and unfavourable polls in the previous months. The surprise victory was highlighted by LLA's lead in Buenos Aires Province, a Peronist stronghold that previously had voted for the Peronists by a substantial margin in the 2025 Buenos Aires provincial election held the previous month. According to political scientist Carlos Fara, the rejection of Peronism "carried more weight" than the recent political and corruption scandals surrounding Milei’s government, the run on the Argentine peso and "the fatigue with the President’s leadership style". This was reflected in the low voter turnout. The result allowed Milei to proceed with his libertarian program. Notably, LLA won just over half of the Chamber of Deputies seats up for election, almost tripling their number of seats and bringing their total to over one-third of the seats in the chamber. This means that opposition parties can no longer obstruct his agenda by overriding his presidential vetoes through a two third majority, although LLA would still need support from other parties to pass its legislation. == Reactions ==
Reactions
Former President Mauricio Macri congratulated Milei, and said that Argentines chose to "renew hopes" for the country. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent also congratulated Milei, and highlighted Argentina as a "vital ally" in Latin America. Paraguayan President Santiago Peña expressed his satisfaction with Milei's victory, and congratulated the Argentine people. Bolivian President-elect Rodrigo Paz congratulated Milei, saying that his victory confirmed "Argentine citizens' support for his leadership", and that he looked forward to strengthening relations between both countries. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán congratulated Milei, and said that they "share a deep respect for freedom and sovereignty", and called Milei a "true patriot". Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sent her congratulations to the Argentine people and Milei, to whom she referred as a "great friend". Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a critic of president Milei, posted on X (formerly Twitter) that "progressivism had won in Argentina", which unleashed a wave of criticism from media and opposition politicians labelling his posts a fabrication. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Milei to congratulate him for his victory. Zelenskyy also invited Milei to visit Ukraine, and said that both countries have shared projects and interests. == References ==
tickerdossier.comtickerdossier.substack.com