The Good Judgment Project

The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program at IARPA (IARPA-ACE). The first contest began in September 2011. Starting with the summer of 2013, GJP were the only research team IARPA-ACE was still funding, and GJP participants had access to the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System. ==People==

The co-leaders of the GJP include Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers and Don Moore. The advisory board included Daniel Kahneman, Robert Jervis, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael Mauboussin, Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers. The study employed several thousand people as volunteer forecasters. Using personality-trait tests, training methods and strategies the researchers at GJP were able to select forecasting participants with less cognitive bias than the average person; as the forecasting contest continued the researchers were able to further down select these individuals in groups of so-called superforecasters. The last season of the GJP enlisted a total of 260 superforecasters. ==Research==

A significant amount of research has been conducted based on the Good Judgment Project by the people involved with it.{{multiref2 ==Good Judgment Inc.==

A commercial spin-off of the Good Judgment Project started to operate on the web in July 2015 under the name Good Judgment Inc. Their services include forecasts on questions of general interest, custom forecasts, and training in Good Judgment's forecasting techniques. Starting in September 2015, Good Judgment Inc has been running a public forecasting tournament at the Good Judgment Open site. Like the Good Judgment Project, Good Judgment Open has questions about geopolitical and financial events, although it also has questions about US politics, entertainment, and sports. ==Media coverage==

GJP has repeatedly been discussed in The Economist. GJP has also been covered in The New York Times, and Co.Exist. NPR aired a segment on The Good Judgment Project by the title "So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Agent", on April 2, 2014. The Financial Times published an article on the GJP on September 5, 2014. The BBC and The Washington Post published articles on the GJP respectively on January 20, 21, and 29, 2015. An article on the GJP appeared on the portal of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly.com, on February 4, 2015. Co-author Gardner had already published a book in 2010, that quoted previous research by Tetlock that seeded the GJP effort. A book review in the September 26, 2015, print edition of the Economist discusses the main concepts. A Wall Street Journal article depicts it as: "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow." The Harvard Business Review paired it with the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg. On September 30, 2015, NPR aired an episode of the Colin McEnroe Show centering on the GJP and the book Superforecasting; guests on the show were Tetlock, IARPA Director Jason Matheny, and superforecaster Elaine Rich. ==See also==