Market2027 Salvadoran presidential election
Company Profile

2027 Salvadoran presidential election

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in El Salvador on 28 February 2027, three years after the 2024 presidential election. It will occur with concurrent legislative and municipal elections. In July 2025, the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador voted to move the date of the next presidential election from 2029 to 2027. It also approved several constitutional amendments, among them, the abolition of presidential term limits and the increase of presidential term lengths from five to six years.

Political background
Presidency of Nayib Bukele with his wife, Gabriela Rodríguez, at his second inauguration Nayib Bukele became President of El Salvador on 1 June 2019 after winning that year's presidential election. Nuevas Ideas, Bukele's political party, won the 2021 legislative election in a landslide and used its supermajority in the Legislative Assembly to replace the five magistrates of the Supreme Court of Justice's Constitutional Court. In 2022, Bukele initiated a nationwide gang crackdown that has resulted in over 84,200 arrests and has been accused of human rights violations and secret negotiations with gangs. As a part of the crackdown, he opened the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT), a prison with a capacity of 40,000 inmates. Bukele has been described by journalists as an authoritarian and an autocrat, yet he also holds approval ratings ranging in the 80s and 90s. In 2021, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that the incumbent president was eligible to run for re-election immediately, overturning a 2014 ruling that held that immediate re-election was unconstitutional. The following year, Bukele announced his intention to run for re-election in the 2024 presidential election. Bukele won re-election with almost 85 percent of the vote in a landslide victory and his second term began on 1 June 2024. Nuevas Ideas won 54 of the Legislative Assembly's 60 seats in concurrent legislative elections. The Legislative Assembly also voted to abolish the two-round system in favor of first-past-the-post and moved the date of the next presidential election from 2029 to 2027, bringing the presidential election cycle in line with the three-year legislative and municipal election cycle. The latter reform will end Bukele's second term on 1 June 2027, two years ahead of the original date of 1 June 2029. Another amendment enabled the sitting president to seek re-election without needing to take a leave of absence six months before the next presidential term begins. In total, five articles of the constitution were amended or eliminated. The vote was split along partisan lines: Bukele's 57 allies voted in favor of the constitutional reforms and the 3 members of the opposition voted against them. Ana Figueroa, who proposed the reforms, argued that term limits historically were allowed for most elected offices without restrictions with the only exception being the presidency and that Salvadorans have a right to determine how long elected officials should remain in office. Suecy Callejas, the vice president of the Legislative Assembly, stated that "power has returned to the only place that it truly belongs [...] to the Salvadoran people". Meanwhile, Xavier Zablah Bukele, the leader of Nuevas Ideas, supported Bukele remaining in office for a third term. Juanita Goebertus, the director of Human Rights Watch's Americas division, warned that El Salvador "is following the same path as Venezuela" (""). At the time of the reforms, Nicaragua and Venezuela were the only other Latin American countries to allow indefinite re-election. On 2 August, Bukele posted on X accusing critics of holding a "double standard" and arguing that indefinite re-election should be allowed in El Salvador as it is allowed for the heads of government of "90% of developed countries". The United States Department of State backed the constitutional reforms, remarking in a statement that "it is up to them to decide how their country should be governed". Ortiz filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Court of Justice on 8 August to declare the constitutional amendments that increased presidential term lengths and abolished term limits to be unconstitutional. Villatoro criticized the lawsuit, arguing that it "would ultimately endorse" ("") the reforms as the same Supreme Court justices enabled Bukele's first re-election. In February 2026, Vice President Félix Ulloa defended indefinite re-election, arguing that it allowed people to "make decisions freely, directly, democratically, and securely" (""). Ulloa further claimed that the Legislative Assembly removed constitutional term limits due to Bukele's landslide victory in 2024. == Electoral system ==
Electoral system
Election procedure A presidential election was initially scheduled to be held in 2029, five years after the 2024 presidential election, but the Legislative Assembly voted in 2025 to reschedule the election for 2027. The election is scheduled to occur on 28 February 2027 with concurrent legislative and municipal elections. Salvadorans outside of the country will be able to vote online from 30 January to 28 February. , there are 6,477,745 registered voters, of which, 5,533,061 reside in the country and live 944,684 abroad. Salvadorans have until 29 November 2026 to be registered to vote. Salvadorans will elect a president and a vice president on a joint-ticket. All candidates must be Salvadoran citizens by birth and at least 30 years old. Presidential and vice presidential candidates must be affiliated with political parties registered with the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) in order to participate in the election. To win, a candidate needs a simple majority. On 2 December 2025, the Legislative Assembly approved a US$172.1 million budget for the 2027 election. Political parties Political parties must be registered with the TSE in order to participate in the 2027 presidential elections. , eleven political parties are eligible to participate in the election. New political parties had until 4 April to petition the TSE for registration and have until 31 August to be fully registered. The following table shows the eleven political parties that are eligible to register candidates with the TSE and whether or not they plan to register presidential and vice presidential candidates. == Candidates ==
Candidates
Potential candidates The following individuals are potential presidential candidates who have expressed interest in running or who have been mentioned by the media as potentially launching a campaign. • Gerardo Awad (Salvadoran Independent Party): businessman, 2019 ARENA presidential pre-candidate, 2024 PAIS presidential pre-candidate • Nayib Bukele (Nuevas Ideas): Mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán (2012–2015), Mayor of San Salvador (2015–2018), President of El Salvador (2019–present) • Manuel Flores (Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front): Mayor of Quezaltepeque (2003–2012), Deputy of the Legislative Assembly (2012–2021), Secretary-General of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (2024–present), 2024 FMLN presidential candidate • Miguel Fortín (proposed by Cambio Total): contributor for La Prensa GráficaClaudia Ortiz (Vamos): Deputy of the Legislative Assembly (2021–present) (denied by Vamos) Declined to be candidates The following individuals have declined to run as a presidential candidate. • Guillermo Gallegos (Grand Alliance for National Unity): Deputy of the Legislative Assembly (2000–2024), President of the Legislative Assembly (2016–2018), Vice President of the Grand Alliance for National Unity (2010–present) == Election campaign ==
Election campaign
Political parties had until 7 April 2026 to convoke their presidential and vice presidential primary elections and have until 29 July to hold them. Days after the deadline to convoke primary elections, Citizen Action reported that no political party published its full list of requirements for candidates to participate in their primaries. The official campaigning period sanctioned by the TSE will span from 27 October 2026 to 24 February 2027. Nuevas Ideas In a 2024 interview with Time, Bukele stated that he would not seek a third term in 2029 (before the election date was moved to 2027). Although Bukele declined to run in the next election, The Economist speculated immediately after Bukele's re-election that he could seek to run for a third term as he remarked that the constitution did not "currently" allow for a third presidential term. The July 2025 constitutional reforms made Bukele eligible to run for re-election in 2027. In December 2025, Bukele told Spanish YouTuber TheGrefg in an interview that he would like to govern El Salvador for "ten more years" (""). Nuevas Ideas will hold its primary election on 12 July. In February 2026, Ulloa told a Spanish journalist that he was unsure if he would seek re-election to the vice presidency, adding that "I imagine so, otherwise I would be letting the people down" (""). Flores has not announced if he will attempt another presidential campaign in 2027. but ruled out forming a coalition with ARENA, describing such a coalition as "impossible". Flores has announced that he will lead the FMLN's 2027 electoral campaign. The FMLN convoked its primary election on 30 March but has not set a date. Nationalist Republican Alliance On 11 August 2025, Francisco Lira (an ARENA deputy in the Legislative Assembly) called on ARENA to not participate in the presidential election as it would "support unconstitutional re-election" ("") and called on Salvadorans to spoil their vote, but ARENA's National Executive Council (COENA) stated that the party will participate. Saade confirmed ARENA's participation in September, stating that the party had "cleaned house" (""). Joel Sánchez, ARENA's 2024 presidential candidate, remarked on the Las Cosas Como Son show in February 2026 that he believes Bukele will win re-election and described ARENA's leadership as "disappearing". ARENA will hold its primary election on 19 July. Grand Alliance for National Unity On 25 August 2025, Guillermo Gallegos, the vice president of the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA), announced in an interview that GANA would run a presidential candidate in 2027. He added that GANA's goal in running a presidential candidate is to support Bukele by "legitimizing the electoral process" ("") as he believed that "there is no one today who can beat [Bukele]" (""). On 29 April, the Legislative Assembly approved a constitutional reform that eliminated the mechanism where political parties nominate TSE magistrates and replaced it with a "general and public process" (""). GANA will hold its primary election from 1 June to 29 July. Gallegos has stated that GANA would support Bukele if he ran for re-election and that he himself will not run for president. In February 2026, Ortiz stated that the party was interested in nominating a presidential candidate. On 16 March 2026, Vamos leader Cesia Rivas announced that Vamos would not participate in the presidential election, stating that "we cannot legitimize an election that is clearly unconstitutional" (""). She added that the party would solely focus on the legislative and municipal elections. Although Vamos stated it will not run a presidential candidate, Ortiz stated in April 2026 that she was still considering running for president with Vamos instead of seeking another term in the Legislative Assembly. Despite de la Cruz's statement, the PDC convoked its presidential primary election and it is scheduled to occur on 25 July 2026. National Coalition Party In March 2026, National Coalition Party (PCN) leader Manuel Rodríguez stated that the PCN was evaluating whether or not it would participate in the 2027 presidential election. On 27 March, the PCN convoked its primary election but has not announced a date. Salvadoran Independent Party Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Gerardo Awad attempted a presidential campaign with the Salvadoran Independent Party (PAIS) but ultimately withdrew his candidacy. He announced that he would prepare for a new campaign in 2029 (before the election date was moved to 2027). but PAIS did not convoke its presidential primary election. Solidary Force Solidary Force (FS) will hold its presidential primary election on 29 July 2026. Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity The Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity (FPS) will hold its primary election from 19 to 26 July 2026. It convoked its primary election on 6 April 2026 but has not scheduled a date. As DS did not participate in the 2024 elections, it must participate in the 2027 elections in order to avoid cancelation by the TSE in accordance with the Law of Political Parties. Umaña has called for ARENA, the FMLN, and Vamos to unite "against the dictatorship" (""), potentially under the banner of Cambio Total. He has also called for the need to "found a new republic" ("") after Bukele leaves office. In August 2025, Umaña proposed nominating La Prensa Gráfica contributor José Miguel Fortín Magaña as a presidential candidate and economist Evelyn Martínez as a vice presidential candidate. == Opinion polling ==
tickerdossier.comtickerdossier.substack.com