Predicted spread throughout Europe Spatially explicit population dynamics models were used by Bertolino et al. 2008 to predict the spread of the grey squirrel populations present in
Italy in 1996: the
Piedmont,
Genoa and
Ticino populations. The models examined potential corridors that would allow grey squirrels to invade France and Switzerland and the time scale of such invasions. In a scenario based on a random pattern of good, poor and
mast-year seed crops (vegetation produces significant abundance of food resources), in the "best-case" scenario, grey squirrels will reach the
Western Alps between 2026 and 2036,
France between 2066 and 2071, and
Switzerland between 2051 and 2066. In a scenario where poor-year seed crops were not included, the "worst-case" scenario, grey squirrels will reach the Western Alps by 2015, France by 2026, and Switzerland between 2031 and 2041. Along the border between France and Italy, the forest cover is mainly composed of
mixed broadleaf trees; this represents a likely corridor to France for the grey squirrel. Mixed
deciduous woodland lines the river
Ticino; this area connects with contiguous
hardwood on the side of
Lake Maggiore in Switzerland, making the area along the Ticino a likely corridor for the grey squirrel to invade Switzerland. The upper portion of the
Alps is covered largely by
coniferous forest. Grey squirrels, which are heavier than native red squirrels, have a higher
energy requirement than red squirrels. It may be difficult for the grey squirrels to attain their higher energy requirement in this environment because they may have difficulty reaching the small seeds contained in the
conifers' cones; for this reason, grey squirrel performance in this habitat will affect the spread of the species. Eventually, if populations are left unchecked, the grey squirrel will spread through a large portion of
continental Europe and
Eurasia, potentially invading the entire global distribution of the red squirrel.
Predicted spread of the poxvirus and damage to trees The
squirrelpox virus is predicted to spread by the grey squirrels as they act as a
vector for the virus. Further, a separate model examining the effects of the spread of the grey squirrel on the health of
Scots and
lodgepole pines showed that grey squirrels will spread
red band needle blight, decreasing the population of lodgepole pines exponentially, and that Scots pine populations will decrease slower due to
fungal growth resulting from the bark-stripping behaviour of the grey squirrel.
Continued spread after attempted eradication In 1991, eradication of a grey squirrel population in
Piedmont was attempted via trapping and
euthanasia; however, this effort was suspended for three years after
animal rights groups filed a lawsuit. During the three-year suspension, the grey squirrel population had grown so much that it was no longer feasible to attempt eradication by the methods initially used. If the species spreads significantly (the three populations in Italy invade France or Switzerland and establish successful populations outside of Italy) before preventative or eradicative efforts are taken, it will, in all probability, be too late for effective action. ==Natural predator==