The first step in forecasting and preparing for heat bursts is recognizing the events that precede them. Rain from a high
convection cloud falls below cloud level and evaporates, cooling the air. Air parcels that are cooler than the surrounding environment descend in altitude. Lastly, temperature conversion mixed with a
downdraft momentum continues downward until the air reaches the ground. The air parcels then become warmer than their environment. McPherson, Lane, Crawford, and McPherson Jr. researched the heat burst system at the
Oklahoma Mesonet, which is owned by both the
University of Oklahoma and
Oklahoma State University. The purpose of their research was to discover any technological benefits and challenges in detecting heat bursts, to document the time of day and year at which heat bursts are most likely to occur, and to research the topography of where heat bursts are most likely to occur in Oklahoma. Scientists and meteorologists use archived data to manually study data that detected 390 potential heat burst days during a fifteen-year period. In studying the archived data, they observed that 58% of the potential days had
dry line passages, frontal passages, or a temperature change due to an increase in solar radiation in the hours of the morning or a daytime precipitation weather system. By studying the archived data, scientists have the ability to determine the beginning, peak, and end of heat burst conditions. The peak of heat burst conditions is the maximum observed temperature. The beginning of a heat burst is the time during which the air temperature increases without decreasing until after the peak; the end of a heat burst is when the system ceases to affect the temperature and dew point of the area. In addition to researching the life cycle and characteristics of heat bursts, a group of scientists concluded that the topography of Oklahoma coincided with the change in atmospheric moisture between northwest and southeast Oklahoma. An increase in convection normally occurs over the
High Plains of the United States during the late spring and summer. They also concluded that a higher increase in convection develops if a mid-tropospheric lifting mechanism interacts with an elevated moist layer. == Documented cases ==