It is difficult to measure how many people reside in the UK
without authorisation, although a
Home Office study based on
Census 2001 data released in March 2005 estimated a population of between 310,000 and 570,000. The methods used to arrive at a figure are also much debated. Problems arise in particular from the very nature of the target population, which is hidden and mostly wants to remain so. The different definitions of 'illegality' adopted in the studies also pose a significant challenge to the comparability of the data. However, despite the methodological difficulties of estimating the number of people living in the UK without authorisation, the residual method has been widely adopted.
Migration Watch UK, a
think tank opposed to a large scale of immigration, has criticised the Home Office figures for not including the UK-born dependent
children of illegal migrants. They suggested in 2007 that the
Home Office had underestimated the numbers of illegal migrants by between 15,000 and 85,000. A study carried out by a research team at
LSE for the
Greater London Authority, published in 2009, estimated the illegal migrant population of the UK by updating the Home Office study. The LSE's study takes into account other factors not included in the previous estimate, namely the continued arrival of asylum seekers, the clearance of the asylum applications backlog, further illegal migrants entering and leaving the country, more migrants overstaying, and the regularisation of EU accession citizens. The most significant change in this estimate is, however, the inclusion of children born in the UK to illegal immigrants. For the LSE team illegal migrants oscillate between 417,000 and 863,000, including a population of UK-born children ranging between 44,000 and 144,000. Drawing on this and taking stock of the outcome of the recent Case Resolution Programme, a
University of Oxford study by Nando Sigona and Vanessa Hughes estimated at the end of 2011 a population of illegal migrant children of 120,000, with over half born in the UK to parents residing without legal immigration status. A Greater London Authority-funded study by researchers at the
University of Wolverhampton's Institute for Community Research and Development updated these figures in 2020, and estimated that the figure in April 2017 was between 594,000 and 745,000 The Conservative party claimed that Channel migrants are 24 times more likely to go to prison than British citizens. This was then covered by news sources such as the
Daily Express,
GB News, and the
Telegraph. This was debunked however as the analysis used out of date statistics for their claim and compared general foreign national imprisonment rates to small boat migrants specifically. The Home Office also rebuked these claims with a spokesperson saying "The comparison of these two data sets is completely unfounded. It is inappropriate to apply foreign imprisonment rates to small boat arrival data as these consist of very different groups of people." ==Channel illegal immigrants==