Genesis First references to the idea of an
Institute for the Future may be found in a 1966 Prospectus by
Olaf Helmer and others. While at
RAND Corporation, Helmer had already been involved with developing the
Delphi method of
futures studies. He, and others, wished to extend the work further with an emphasis on examining multiple scenarios. This can be seen in the prospectus summary: •
To explore systematically the possible futures for our [USA] nation and for the international community. •
To ascertain which among these possible futures seems desirable, and why. •
To seek means by which the probability of their occurrence can be enhanced through appropriate purposeful action. While precise and powerful, the methods that had been developed in a corporate environment were oriented to providing business and economic analyses. At a 1971 conference on
mathematical modelling Helmer noted the need for similar improvements in societal modelling. Early attempts at doing so included a "Future State of the Union" report, formatted according to the traditional US Presidential address to the Nation. Despite establishing an excellent reputation for painstaking analysis of future analyses and forecasting methods, various problems meant that the Institute struggled to find its footing at first. In 1970 Helmer took over the leadership from Davidson, and the Institute shifted its headquarters to
Menlo Park, California. In 1971
Roy Amara took over from Helmer, who continued to run the Middletown office until his departure in 1973. Starting from the early seventies
astrophysicist and
computer scientist Jacques Vallee,
sociologist Bob Johansen, and technology forecaster
Paul Saffo worked for IFTF.
An increase in corporate focus In 1975 the Corporate Associates Program was started to assist private organisations interpret emerging trends and the long-term consequences. Although this program operated until 2001, its role as the Institute's main reporting tool was superseded by the Ten Year Forecast in 1978. In 1984 the
sociologist Herbert L Smith noted that, by the late 1970s, the idea of an open Union reporting format had given way to the proprietary Ten Year Forecast. Smith interpreted this as a renewed focus on business forecasting as public funds became scarce. It is not clear how pertinent Smith's observations were to how the Institute was operating in this period. Sociologists such as Bob Johansen continued to be active in the Institute's projects. Having taken part in early ARPANET development, Institute staff were well aware of the impact that computer networking would have on society and its inclusion in policy making. However, in a 1984 essay, Roy Amara appeared to acknowledge some form of crisis, and a renewed interest in societal forecasting.
Evolution of societal forecasting New ways of presenting studies to a less specialised audience were adopted, or developed. As an aid to memory retention, 'Vignetting' presented future scenarios as short stories; to illustrate the point of the scenario, and engage the reader's attention. Later initiatives showed an increasing emphasis on narrative engagement, e.g. 'Artifacts of the future', and 'Human-future interaction'.
Ethnographic forecasting was adopted as it became recognised that "society" was actually a myriad of sub-cultures, each with its own outlook. While older forecasting methods sought the advice of field experts, newer techniques sought the statistical input from all members of society. Public interaction, provided via the internet and social media, made it possible to engage in "bottom up forecasting". While roleplaying and simulation games had long been part of a forecaster's tools, they could now be scaled up into "massively multiplayer forecasting games" such as Superstruct. This game enlisted the blogs and wikis of over 5,000 people to discuss life 10 years in the future; presenting them with a set of hypothetical, overlapping social threats, and encouraging them to seek collaborative "superstruct" solutions. The concept of the superstruct was subsequently incorporated into the Institute's 'Foresight Engine' tool. == Work ==