Russian researcher Andrei Zavrotsky investigated the area several times. He concluded that the lightning has several epicenters in the marshes of Juan Manuel de Aguas National Park, Claras Aguas Negras, and western Lake Maracaibo. In 1991, he suggested that the phenomenon occurred due to cold and warm air currents meeting around the area. The study also speculated that an isolated cause for the lightning might be the presence of
uranium in the bedrock. Between 1997 and 2000, a series of four studies proposed that the
methane produced by the swamps and the massive
oil deposits in the area were a major cause of the phenomenon. The methane model is based on the symmetry properties of methane. Other studies have indicated that this model is contradicted by the observed behavior of the lightning, as it would predict that there would be more lightning in the dry season (January–February), and less in the wet season (April–May and September–October). A team from the
Universidad del Zulia has investigated the impact of different atmospheric variables on Catatumbo lightning's daily, seasonal and year-to-year variability, finding relationships with the
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the
Caribbean Low-Level Jet, and the local winds and
convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using
satellite data,
NASA counts that there are around 250 instances of lightning per km2. == Predictability ==