Goldstein in 1988 posited a 'hegemony cycle' of 150 years' duration, the four hegemonic powers since 1494 being; 1, Hapsburg
Spain, 1494–1648; ended by the
Thirty Years War, in which Spain itself was the 'challenger'; the
Treaty of Westphalia and the beginnings of the nation-state. 2, the Netherlands, 1648–1815; ended by the challenge from France of the revolutionary and Napoleonic wars, the
Treaty of Vienna and introduction of the
Congress System 3, Great Britain, 1815–1945; ended by Germany's challenge in two World Wars, and the postwar settlement, including the
World Bank,
IMF,
GATT, the
United Nations and
NATO. 4, the United States, since 1945 Goldstein suggests that US hegemony may 'at an indeterminate time' be challenged and ended by China (the 'best fit'), by western Europe, Japan, or (writing in 1988) the USSR. The situation is unstable due to the continuance of Machiavellian
power politics and the deployment of nuclear weapons. The choice lies between 'global cooperation or global suicide'. Thus there may be 'an end to hegemony itself'. Goldstein speculates that Venetian hegemony, ceded to Spain in 1494, may have begun in 1350 ==Selected publications==