Kummer verified the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture for
p less than 200, and Vandiver extended this to
p less than 600. verified it for
p 31. describes an informal probability argument, based on rather dubious assumptions about the equidistribution of class numbers modulo
p, suggesting that the number of primes less than
x that are exceptions to the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture might grow like (1/2)log log
x. This grows extremely slowly, and suggests that the computer calculations do not provide much evidence for Vandiver's conjecture: for example, the probability argument (combined with the calculations for small primes) suggests that one should only expect about 1 counterexample in the first 10100 primes, suggesting that it is unlikely any counterexample will be found by further brute force searches even if there are an infinite number of exceptions. gave conjectural calculations of the class numbers of real cyclotomic fields for primes up to 10000, which strongly suggest that the class numbers are not randomly distributed mod
p. They tend to be quite small and are often just 1. For example, assuming the
generalized Riemann hypothesis, the class number of the real cyclotomic field for the prime
p is 1 for
p < 163, and divisible by 4 for
p = 163. This suggests that Washington's informal probability argument against the conjecture may be misleading. gave a refined version of Washington's heuristic argument, suggesting that the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture is probably true. ==Consequences of the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture==