The dissolution of the
National Assembly announced by
Emmanuel Macron following the
2024 European elections triggered a period of political instability. The subsequent
snap legislative elections resulted in a
hung parliament. After weeks of negotiations,
Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister on September 5, 2024, leading a government based on cooperation between
Ensemble and
The Republicans. He was later overthrown by a
vote of no confidence in December.
François Bayrou succeeded him and managed to pass the 2025 budget, but failed to stabilize a governing majority. He was in turn ousted on September 9, 2025, and replaced by
Sébastien Lecornu. This sequence of unstable governments has shaped the political context leading up to the 2027 presidential election. In March 2025,
Marine Le Pen, a declared candidate for the
National Rally, was found guilty of
embezzlement of
European Parliament funds. She was
sentenced to five years of ineligibility with immediate effect, preventing her from running in upcoming elections. Previously leading in opinion polls, her conviction significantly reshaped the political landscape. She has appealed the ruling, but the ineligibility remains in force pending the appeal decision (expected on July 7, 2026).
Jordan Bardella is widely seen as a potential replacement candidate. The
New Popular Front alliance formed in 2024 has weakened due to strategic disagreements, particularly between the
Socialist Party and
La France Insoumise. Several left-wing figures have expressed support for a joint candidacy outside LFI. The
United Left primary is scheduled for October 11, 2026, although the prospect of a unified candidacy remains uncertain, as both LFI and the Socialist Party are likely to field their own separate candidates. On the political right, divisions center on the method of selecting the candidate.
Bruno Retailleau was nominated as the Republicans candidate on April 19, 2026 following a member vote.
Gérald Darmanin,
Laurent Wauquiez, and
David Lisnard favor a primary election—the latter two seeking to include
Reconquête— while
Xavier Bertrand and
Édouard Philippe reject the idea. The number of declared or presumed candidates is unprecedented in the Fifth Republic. In mid-February 2026, eleven prominent figures had already declared their candidacy, and several others were expected to do so; Journalist Marie-Ève Malouines notes that most of these contenders are likely to be eliminated before they can even officially declare their candidacy, due to a lack of sufficient funding, endorsements, or organization. According to
Le HuffPost, Emmanuel Macron’s constitutional inability to run for re-election and the fragmentation of the political class are fueling this frenzy. == Electoral system ==