An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances :
Author: Thomas Bayes :
Publication data: 1763-12-23 :
Online version: :
Description: In this paper Bayes addresses the problem of using a sequence of identical "trials" to determine the per-trial
probability of "success" – the so-called
inverse probability problem. It later inspired the theorem that bears his name (
Bayes' theorem). See also
Pierre Simon de Laplace. :
Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
On Small Differences in Sensation :
Author: Charles Sanders Peirce and
Joseph Jastrow :
Publication data: :
Online version: http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Peirce/small-diffs.htm :
Description: Peirce and Jastrow use
logistic regression to estimate
subjective probabilities of subjects's judgments of the heavier of two measurements, following a
randomized controlled repeated measures design.{{cite journal|authorlink=Stephen Stigler|last=Stigler|first=Stephen M.|title=Mathematical Statistics in the Early States|journal=Annals of Statistics :
Importance: Pioneered elicitation of subjective probabilities.
Truth and Probability :
Author: Frank P. Ramsey :
Publication data: *
Ramsey, Frank Plumpton; "Truth and Probability" (PDF), Chapter VII in
The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays (1931). :
Online version: https://web.archive.org/web/20080227205205/http://cepa.newschool.edu/het//texts/ramsey/ramsess.pdf :
Description: Ramsey proposes
elucidating a person's
subjective probability for a
proposition using a sequence of bets. Ramsey described his work as an elaboration of some
pragmatic ideas of
C. S. Peirce, which were expressed in "How to Make Our Ideas Clear". :
Importance: Popularized the "Ramsey test" for eliciting subjective probabilities.
Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis :
Author: George E. P. Box and
George C. Tiao :
Publication data: Addison Wesley Publishing Co., 1973. Reprinted 1992: Wiley :
Description: The first complete analysis of Bayesian Inference for many statistical problems. :
Importance: Includes a large body of research on Bayesian analysis for outlier problems, variance components, linear models and multivariate statistics.
Theory of Probability :
Author: Bruno de Finetti :
Publication data: Two volumes, A.F.M. Smith and A. Machi (trs.), New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1974, 1975. :
Description: The first detailed statement of the operational subjective position, dating from the author's research in the 1920s and 30s. :
Importance: Emphasizes exchangeable random variables which are often mixtures of independent random variables. Argues for
finitely additive probability measures that need
not be
countably additive. Emphasizes expectations rather than probability measures.
Introduction to statistical decision theory :
Author: John W. Pratt,
Howard Raiffa, and
Robert Schlaifer :
Publication data: preliminary edition, 1965. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995. :
Description: Extensive exposition of statistical decision theory, statistics, and decision analysis from a Bayesian standpoint. Many examples and problems come from business and economics. :
Importance: Greatly extended the scope of applied Bayesian statistics by using
conjugate priors for
exponential families. Extensive treatment of sequential decision making, for example mining decisions. For many years, it was required for all doctoral students at
Harvard Business School. ==Multivariate analysis==