Climate change vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability has been a central concept in academic research and IPCC assessments since 2001. The concept of vulnerability can refer to a wide variety of different meanings or contexts in climate change research. It can apply to humans or to natural systems (ecosystems), often simultaneously given the interdependence of humans and ecosystems. Early studies focused on biophysical vulnerability to climate change. In other words, the effects of physical climate hazards such as a heat wave or heavy rain events. This direction of research was shaped by earlier natural hazards research and it emphasised physical changes and energy flows in the landscape. It aims to quantify and measure the impacts of an event on the environment and on people. Since (biophysical) vulnerability is interpreted here as the negative outcome of climate change on people or places, it is also sometimes referred to as 'outcome vulnerability'. An alternative framing focuses on social dimensions of vulnerability that set the context in which climate change happens. These dimensions include the political, institutional, economic and social structures that interact with the physical climate changes. For example, water privatization might affect the ability of people to respond to drought. This direction of research was shaped by human security research and they focus on the current context or 'starting point' for the social and biophysical processes. They are sometimes also referred to as 'contextual vulnerability' approaches. See the section on 'Causes' below. In the Fifth IPCC report, the social context was emphasized. It noted factors such as wealth and employment, access to technology and information, societal values and the role of institutions to resolve conflicts or develop relations among states as important. Vulnerability was defined as a characteristic of people or places independent of physical events. The report included two additional definitions, one of contextual vulnerability and one of outcome vulnerability. == Types ==

Climate change vulnerability has a wide variety of different meanings and uses of the term have varied and evolved over time. The main distinction is between biophysical and social (or socioeconomic) vulnerability: • Biophysical vulnerability is about the effects of physical climate hazards such as a heat wave or heavy rain events • Social vulnerability considers the many political, institutional, economic and social structures that form the context for climate change Biophysical or (physical) vulnerability Early studies focused on biophysical vulnerability to climate change. Social (socioeconomic) vulnerability Social vulnerability is a more people-centred, holistic perspective on how and why people are affected by climate change. Preparing a climate resilient society will require huge investments in infrastructure, city planning, engineering sustainable energy sources, and preparedness systems. From a global perspective, it is more likely that people living at or below poverty will be affected the most by climate change and are thus the most vulnerable, because they will have the least amount of resource dollars to invest in resiliency infrastructure. They will also have the least amount of resource dollars for cleanup efforts after more frequently occurring natural climate change related disasters. Vulnerability for people of a certain gender or age can be caused by "systemic reproduction of historical legacies of inequality", for example as part of "(post)colonial, (post)apartheid, and poverty discrimination". Social vulnerability of people can be related to aspects that make people different from one another (gender, class, race, age, etc.), and also the situational variables (where they live, their health, who lives with them in the household, how much they earn). Other categories tend to have a higher vulnerability to climate change.Geographic, or place-based vulnerability to climate change is an important dimension. The most geographically vulnerable locations to climate change are those that will be impacted by side effects of natural hazards, such as rising sea levels and by dramatic changes in ecosystem services, including access to food. Island nations are usually noted as more vulnerable but communities that rely heavily on a sustenance based lifestyle are also at greater risk. Around the world, climate change affects rural communities that heavily depend on their agriculture and natural resources for their livelihood. Increased frequency and severity of climate events disproportionately affects women, rural, dryland, and island communities. This leads to more drastic changes in their lifestyles and forces them to adapt to this change. It is becoming more important for local and government agencies to create strategies to react to change and adapt infrastructure to meet the needs of those impacted. Various organizations work to create adaptation, mitigation, and resilience plans that will help rural and at risk communities around the world that depend on the earth's resources to survive. == Scale ==

It has been estimated in 2021 that "approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change". The vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is not the same everywhere: there are marked differences among and within regions (see regions that are particularly vulnerable below). Vulnerability can also increase or decrease over time. == People who are more vulnerable ==

flooding effects in Pennsylvania, US where poorer neighbourhoods were more affected.People who are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than others include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly. For example, when looking at the effects of climate change on human health, a report published in The Lancet found that the greatest impact tends to fall on the most vulnerable people such as the poor, women, children, the elderly, people with pre-existing health concerns, other minorities and outdoor workers. There can be "structural deficits related to social, economic, cultural, political, and institutional conditions" which would explain why some parts of the population are more impacted than others. This applies for example to climate-related risks to household water security for women in remote rural regions in Burkina Faso or the urban poor in sub-Saharan Africa. ==The Impact of Climate Change on Health Outcomes==

Varying Racial and Ethnic Groups The extent to which climate change can negatively impact the health outcomes of populations may vary amongst different racial and ethnic groups across the globe. It is also important in this case to note that social positions can be denoted by race or ethnicity. Therefore, there can exist a variance in health outcomes as a result of differences in exposure and accessibility to healthcare to mitigate the health damages caused by climate change. It is understood that increased exposure to high temperatures as a result of global warming can lead to acute heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke or can aggravate pre-existing conditions. In a study done in Los Angeles, California during a heat wave, it was found that African American populations were at greater risk of mortality. In fact, the mortality rate of African Americans during this 2006 heat wave was double that of the average population. Heat-related emergency department visits were also significantly increased for ethnic populations as there was a spike in emergency department visits found amongst Asian/Pacific Islander populations and African American populations. Although some may attribute the discrepancy in mortality and hospitalization rates among ethnic groups to physiological differences between populations, not enough evidence has been provided to support this statement. Rather, studies show that these differences in health outcomes amongst different racial and ethnic groups are more likely to be the result of socioeconomic variance. Racial minorities are more likely to be socioeconomically disadvantaged and are therefore more likely to take on underpaid high-risk occupations, live in hazardous areas, and have difficulty finding the financial resources to maintain a healthy level of thermal comfort. A study done in Phoenix, Arizona highlighted that more heat distress calls were made in neighborhoods consisting of primarily African American and low-income Hispanic populations. It is found that financially disadvantaged communities, often which are composed of ethnic minorities, have a propensity to be warmer neighborhoods despite the lack of access to means of thermal regulation. The urban heat island effect emphasizes the fact that urban areas tend to be most impacted. During a heat wave in Oklahoma City, a study examined the urban island heat effect in varying communities. It was found that the hotter inner city region, one densely populated by minority residents, was severely inadequately equipped with air-conditioning. This inadequate access to resources that allow for thermal regulation in homes, coupled with overcrowded living spaces in low-income, minority communities can be a significant health hazard. It is also important to discuss occupational hazards when elaborating upon the impact of climate change on the health outcomes of varying racial and ethnic groups. Extreme heat can be detrimental to outdoor workers. Several studies have revealed that the agricultural workforce has been negatively affected by the growing effects of climate change. The majority of agricultural workers are from Latin America, with also a significant population who are also composed of Asian and Caribbean migrants, and people of Native American and African American descent. == Reducing vulnerability ==

Vulnerability can be reduced through climate change adaptation measures. Climate change adaptation Climate resilience Climate justice Equity is another essential component of vulnerability and is closely tied to issues of environmental justice and climate justice. As the most vulnerable communities are likely to be the most heavily impacted, a climate justice movement is coalescing in response. There are many aspects of climate justice that relate to vulnerability and resiliency. The frameworks are similar to other types of justice movements and include contractarianism which attempts to allocate the most benefits for the poor, utilitarianism which seeks to find the most benefits for the most people, egalitarianism which attempts to reduce inequality, and libertarianism which emphasizes a fair share of burden but also individual freedoms. Examples of climate justices approach can be seen by the work done by the United States government on both federal and local levels. On a federal level, The Environmental Protection Agency works toward the goals of Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. E.O 12898 states the goals of implementing federal environmental justice initiatives that work toward aiding minority and low-income communities that suffer from disproportionate environmental or human health impacts. To alleviate environmental and health challenges within many American communities the U.S Environmental Protection Agency has implemented projects region by region to ensure the development of environmental justice. These developments include but are not limited to population vulnerability, green space development locally as well as federally, and the reevaluation of environmentally disproportionate health burdens. Climate Vulnerable Forum == Measurement tools ==

Vulnerability assessment is important because it provides information that can be used to develop management actions in response to climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments and tools are available at all scales. Macro-scale vulnerability assessment often uses indices. Modelling and participatory approaches are also in use. Global vulnerability assessments are based on spatial mapping using aggregated data for the regional or national level. Assessments are also done at sub-national and sectoral level, and also increasingly for cities on an urban district or neighbourhood scale. Vulnerability assessment is also done for local communities to evaluate where and how communities and livelihoods are vulnerable to climate change. Studies can vary widely in scope and scale— for example the World Bank and Ministry of Economy of Fiji commissioned a report for the whole country in 2017-18 while the Rochester, New York commissioned a much more local report for the city in 2018. Or, for example, NOAA Fisheries commissioned Climate Vulnerability assessments for marine fishers in the United States. In some cases vulnerability assessment is done in advance of preparing local climate adaptation plans or risk management plans. Indicators and indices Global indices for climate change vulnerability include the ND-GAIN Country Index, which measures national climate vulnerability globally, INFORM Risk Index and the WorldRiskIndex, which include social vulnerability indices. Indicator approaches are also used at national and sub-national levels. They use a composite index of many individual quantifiable indicators. To generate the index value or 'score', most often a simple average is calculated across a set of standardized values. However, sometimes weighting is done according what are thought to be the most important determinants of vulnerability. Climate vulnerability tracking starts identifying the relevant information, preferably open access, produced by state or international bodies at the scale of interest. Then a further effort to make the vulnerability information freely accessible to all development actors is required. Vulnerability tracking has many applications. It constitutes an indicator for the monitoring and evaluation of programs and projects for resilience and adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability tracking is also a decision making tool in regional and national adaptation policies. Tools for vulnerability assessment Similarly as for climate risk assessment, tools for vulnerability assessment vary depending on the sector, the scale at which the study is being carried out, and the entity or system which is thought to vulnerable. Modelling and other participatory tools include WEAP for understanding water resource vulnerabilities and assessing adaptation options. The Vulnerability Sourcebook is a guide for practical and scientific knowledge on vulnerability assessment. Climate vulnerability mapping is also used to understand which areas are the most geographically vulnerable. A systematic review published in 2019 found 84 studies focused on the use of mapping to communicate and do analysis of climate vulnerability. == By region and country ==

All regions of the world are vulnerable to climate change but to a different degree. With high confidence, researchers concluded in 2001 that developing countries would tend to be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. Based on development trends in 2001, scientists have found that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate change. This was partly due to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP. The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change. It was predicted in 2007 that there would be major ecological, sociological, and economic impacts in the region. Among those being disproportionately impacted by issues regarding climate change have been the Indigenous peoples of the Arctic, such as the Inuit, Yupik, and Saami, who are particularly vulnerable. Traditional livelihoods, including hunting, fishing, and reindeer herding, are threatened by changes in ice conditions, wildlife migration patterns, and habitat availability. Additionally, thawing permafrost can damage infrastructure and contaminate water sources, posing health and safety risks to communities. Small island Developing States are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Partly this was attributed to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP. Climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones. Small islands are especially susceptible to these events, which can cause widespread destruction, loss of life, and economic setbacks. In comparison, the climate vulnerability of Europe is lower than in developing countries. This was attributed to Europe's high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems. == See also ==