The
New Mersenne conjecture or
Bateman, Selfridge and Wagstaff conjecture (Bateman et al. 1989) states that for any
odd natural number p, if any two of the following conditions hold, then so does the third: •
p = 2
k ± 1 or
p = 4
k ± 3 for some natural number
k. () • 2
p − 1 is prime (a
Mersenne prime). () • (2
p + 1)/3 is prime (a
Wagstaff prime). () If
p is an odd composite number, then 2
p − 1 and (2
p + 1)/3 are both composite. Therefore it is only necessary to test primes to verify the truth of the conjecture. Currently, there are nine known numbers for which all three conditions hold: 3, 5, 7, 13, 17, 19, 31, 61, 127 . Bateman et al. expected that no number greater than 127 satisfies all three conditions, and showed that heuristically no greater number would even satisfy two conditions, which would make the New Mersenne conjecture trivially true. If at least one of the
double Mersenne numbers MM61 and MM127 is prime, then the New Mersenne conjecture would be false, since both M61 and M127 satisfy the first condition (since they are Mersenne primes themselves), but (2^M61+1)/3 and (2^M127+1)/3 are both composite, they are divisible by 1328165573307087715777 and 886407410000361345663448535540258622490179142922169401, respectively. , all the Mersenne primes up to 257885161 − 1 are known, and for none of these does the first condition or the third condition hold except for the ones just mentioned. Primes which satisfy at least one condition are :2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 31, 43, 61, 67, 79, 89, 101, 107, 127, 167, 191, 199, 257, 313, 347, 521, 607, 701, 1021, 1279, 1709, 2203, 2281, 2617, 3217, 3539, 4093, 4099, 4253, 4423, 5807, 8191, 9689, 9941, ... Note that the two primes for which the original Mersenne conjecture is false (67 and 257) satisfy the first condition of the new conjecture (67 = 43 + 3, 257 = 28 + 1), but not the other two. 89 and 107, which were missed by Mersenne, satisfy the second condition but not the other two. Mersenne may have thought that 2
p − 1 is prime only if
p = 2
k ± 1 or
p = 4
k ± 3 for some natural number
k, but if he thought it was "
if and only if" he would have included 61. The New Mersenne conjecture can be thought of as an attempt to salvage the centuries-old Mersenne's conjecture, which is false. However, according to Robert D. Silverman,
John Selfridge agreed that the New Mersenne conjecture is "obviously true" as it was chosen to fit the known data and
counter-examples beyond those cases are exceedingly unlikely. It may be regarded more as a curious observation than as an open question in need of
proving.
Prime Pages shows that the New Mersenne conjecture is true for all integers less than or equal to 10000000 by systematically listing all primes for which it is already known that one of the conditions holds. In fact, currently it is known that the New Mersenne conjecture is true for all integers less than or equal to the current search limit of the Mersenne primes (see this page for the current search limit of the Mersenne primes), also currently it is known that the New Mersenne conjecture is true for all integers less than 1073741827 which satisfy the first condition, also currently it is known that the New Mersenne conjecture is true for all known integers which satisfy the second or third condition. == Lenstra–Pomerance–Wagstaff conjecture ==