History The microfoundations project originated in the
post-Second World War neoclassical synthesis where it is generally believed that neoclassical microeconomics fused with Keynesian macroeconomics. The 'neoclassical microeconomics' in mention is the
Marshallian partial-equilibrium approach, which emerged from the
Walrasian general equilibrium theory. and macroeconomists have also studied alternative microeconomic models (such as models of credit market imperfections and
precautionary saving) that might imply a greater marginal propensity to consume. One particularly influential endorsement of the study of microfoundations was
Robert Lucas, Jr.'s
critique of
traditional macroeconometric forecasting models. After the apparent shift of the
Phillips curve relationship during the 1970s, Lucas argued that the correlations between aggregate variables observed in macroeconomic data would tend to change whenever macroeconomic policy changed. This implied that microfounded models are more appropriate for predicting the effect of policy changes, using the assumption that changes of macroeconomic policy do not alter the microeconomics of the macroeconomy. In terms of solutions,
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling with representative agents has been the most prevalent among literatures. This approach "makes the microeconomic and the macroeconomic level of analysis coincide: a single agent, a utility maximizing individual, represents an entire sector, which may be, for instance banks, consumers, or firms". Therefore, DSGE modelling connects both microeconomic and macroeconomic theories, thus embodying the basis of microfoundations.
Importance It is suggested that modern mainstream economics is based entirely on DSGE models. The Smets-Wouters model is one example of the importance of microfoundations as it is regarded as a benchmark model for analysing monetary and fiscal policy. The model offers three main advantages of microfoundations: • Microfoundations provides a modelling structure where data may not be very informative. • Microfoundations avoids the Lucas Critique as it is able to relate the reduced-form parameters to deeper structural parameters. • Microfoundations provides a basis for estimating the optimality and desirability of policy. While these points summarise the desire to adopt DSGE models - or microfoundations - there are limitations to the model with scholars stating that their forecast performance can be poor in terms of their ability to forecast individual variables. Therefore, there is continuous debate on the microfoundations project and its efficacy with an overall lack of consensus. == Microfoundations research and development ==