Probability calculus Modus tollens represents an instance of the
law of total probability combined with
Bayes' theorem expressed as: \Pr(P)=\Pr(P\mid Q)\Pr(Q)+\Pr(P\mid \lnot Q)\Pr(\lnot Q)\,, where the conditionals \Pr(P\mid Q) and \Pr(P\mid \lnot Q) are obtained with (the extended form of)
Bayes' theorem expressed as: \Pr(P\mid Q) = \frac{\Pr(Q \mid P)\,a(P)}{\Pr(Q\mid P)\,a(P)+\Pr(Q\mid \lnot P)\,a(\lnot P)}\;\;\; and \Pr(P\mid \lnot Q) = \frac{\Pr(\lnot Q \mid P)\,a(P)}{\Pr(\lnot Q\mid P)\,a(P)+\Pr(\lnot Q\mid \lnot P)\,a(\lnot P)}. In the equations above \Pr(Q) denotes the probability of Q, and a(P) denotes the
base rate (aka.
prior probability) of P. The
conditional probability \Pr(Q\mid P) generalizes the logical statement P \to Q, i.e. in addition to assigning TRUE or FALSE we can also assign any probability to the statement. Assume that \Pr(Q) = 1 is equivalent to Q being TRUE, and that \Pr(Q) = 0 is equivalent to Q being FALSE. It is then easy to see that \Pr(P) = 0 when \Pr(Q\mid P) = 1 and \Pr(Q) = 0. This is because \Pr(\lnot Q\mid P) = 1 - \Pr(Q\mid P) = 0 so that \Pr(P\mid \lnot Q) = 0 in the last equation. Therefore, the product terms in the first equation always have a zero factor so that \Pr(P) = 0 which is equivalent to P being FALSE. Hence, the
law of total probability combined with
Bayes' theorem represents a generalization of
modus tollens.
Subjective logic Modus tollens represents an instance of the abduction operator in
subjective logic expressed as: \omega^{A}_{P\tilde{\|}Q}= (\omega^{A}_{Q|P},\omega^{A}_{Q|\lnot P})\widetilde{\circledcirc} (a_{P},\,\omega^{A}_{Q})\,, where \omega^{A}_{Q} denotes the subjective opinion about Q, and (\omega^{A}_{Q|P},\omega^{A}_{Q|\lnot P}) denotes a pair of binomial conditional opinions, as expressed by source A. The parameter a_{P} denotes the
base rate (aka. the
prior probability) of P. The abduced marginal opinion on P is denoted \omega^{A}_{P\tilde{\|}Q}. The conditional opinion \omega^{A}_{Q|P} generalizes the logical statement P \to Q, i.e. in addition to assigning TRUE or FALSE the source A can assign any subjective opinion to the statement. The case where \omega^{A}_{Q} is an absolute TRUE opinion is equivalent to source A saying that Q is TRUE, and the case where \omega^{A}_{Q} is an absolute FALSE opinion is equivalent to source A saying that Q is FALSE. The abduction operator \widetilde{\circledcirc} of
subjective logic produces an absolute FALSE abduced opinion \omega^{A}_{P\widetilde{\|}Q} when the conditional opinion \omega^{A}_{Q|P} is absolute TRUE and the consequent opinion \omega^{A}_{Q} is absolute FALSE. Hence, subjective logic abduction represents a generalization of both
modus tollens and of the
Law of total probability combined with
Bayes' theorem. == See also ==