Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election

The Conservatives led the polls for the two years following the 2019 general election, which included Brexit, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine rollout during the leadership of Boris Johnson. Labour took a lead following the Partygate scandal and maintained this through the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak premierships until the 2024 election. ==Guide to tables==

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a poll result is a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded and displayed in bold. "Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each contesting elections only in its own region. The polling company ComRes was acquired by Savanta in July 2019. It was rebranded as Savanta ComRes in November 2019 and as Savanta in December 2022. In August 2023, the market research company Omnisis rebranded its public polling arm as We Think. In October 2023, the Norstat group acquired Panelbase. In November 2023, Kantar Public rebranded to Verian. None of these organisational changes entailed changes in methodology. == National poll results ==

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party (SNP) only stand candidates in Scotland. 2024 When compared to the result, the final week of polls on average underestimated the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote shares and overestimated the Labour and Reform vote shares. The projected SNP and Green vote shares were largely accurate. } 2023 } 2022 2021 2020 ==Non-geographical samples==

The following polls sampled subsets of voters according to particular characteristics from across the UK or Great Britain. Ethnic minority voters Muslim voters Jewish voters Private renter voters Young voters Savanta published polls of voters aged between 18 and 25. The 2019 result comes from the British Election Study's estimate of voters aged 18 to 24 and the 2024 result comes from Ipsos' estimate of voters among the same age group. GB News viewers == Seat projections ==

The general election was contested under the first-past the post electoral system in 650 constituencies. 326 seats were needed for a parliamentary majority. Most polls were reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters did not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons. Final projections from aggregators Various models existed which continually projected election outcomes for the seats in Britain based on the aggregate of polling data. Final predictions of some notable models are tabulated below. National seat projections Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) is the most common methodology for projecting seats nationally. It was used by YouGov to predict outcomes for the 2017 and 2019 elections. Multiple polling companies conducted such polling and modelling for the 2024 election, these are tabulated below. Also included is a stacked regression with poststratification (SRP) poll produced by J.L. Partners, the first time such a method has been used for a UK election. All of these polls use sample sizes substantially larger than typical national polls. These polls were of Britain only, though the reporting of some results include the 18 Northern Irish seats under "Others". Polling companies also differ in their handling of the Speaker's seat, considering it variously as Labour, "Other", or omitting it from the results. Negative values in the rightmost "majority" column below indicate that the party with the most seats would have a plurality of seats, but would not have a majority. The overall vote share values for these polls, where reported, are also included in the tables above. ==Exit poll==

An exit poll conducted by Ipsos for the BBC, ITV, and Sky News was published at the end of voting at 22:00, predicting the number of seats for each party. The extent of Labour's victory was projected to be slightly less than seen in the last week of opinion polls, though still a substantial landslide. The exit poll ended up being close to the actual results, apart from the Reform figure which was slightly overestimated. BBC updated forecasts Throughout the night and into the early hours of 5 July, BBC News updated their forecast, combining the exit poll with the results coming in. == Sub-national poll results ==