Geological, isotopic, and
palaeobotanical evidence suggests the late Pliensbachian was an
icehouse period. These ice sheets are believed to have been thin and stretched into lower latitudes, making them extremely sensitive to temperature changes. A warming trend lasting from the latest Pliensbachian to the earliest Toarcian was interrupted by a "cold snap" in the middle
polymorphum zone, equivalent to the
tenuicostatum ammonite zone, which was then followed by the abrupt warming interval associated with the TOAE. This global warming, driven by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, was the mainspring of the early Toarcian environmental crisis. Carbon dioxide levels rose from about 500 ppm to about 1,000 ppm. Seawater warmed by anywhere between 3 °C and 7 °C, depending on latitude. At the height of this supergreenhouse interval, global
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) averaged about 21 °C.
Argon-argon dating of Karoo-Ferrar rhyolites points to a link between Karoo-Ferrar volcanism and the extinction event, a conclusion reinforced by
uranium-lead dating and palaeomagnetism. Dating of zircons suggests that the magmatic activity lasted for about 349 ± 49 kyr, although
plagioclase dating suggests a duration of approximately 1.6 Myr. Occurring during a broader, gradual positive carbon isotope excursion as measured by δ13C values, the TOAE is preceded by a global negative δ13C excursion recognised in fossil wood, organic carbon, and carbonate carbon in the
tenuicostatum ammonite zone of northwestern Europe, with this negative δ13C shift being the result of volcanic discharge of light carbon. though its occurrence in areas like Greece has been cited as evidence of its global nature. The negative δ13C shift is also known from the
Arabian Peninsula, the
Ordos Basin, The negative δ13C excursion has been found to be up to -8% in bulk organic and carbonate carbon, although analysis of compound specific biomarkers suggests a global value of around -3% to -4%. In addition, numerous smaller scale carbon isotope excursions are globally recorded on the falling limb of the larger negative δ13C excursion. The Karoo-Ferrar magmatism released so much carbon dioxide that it disrupted the imprint of the 9 Myr long-term
carbon cycle that was otherwise steady and stable during the Jurassic and
Early Cretaceous. The values of 187Os/188Os rose from ~0.40 to ~0.53 during the PTo-E and from ~0.42 to ~0.68 during the TOAE, and many scholars conclude this change in osmium isotope ratios evidences the responsibility of this large igneous province for the biotic crises. Mercury anomalies from the approximate time intervals corresponding to the PTo-E and TOAE have likewise been invoked as tell-tale evidence of the ecological calamity's cause being a large igneous province, although some researchers attribute these elevated mercury levels to increased terrigenous flux. There is evidence that the motion of the African Plate suddenly changed in velocity, shifting from mostly northward movement to southward movement. Such shifts in plate motion are associated with similar large igneous provinces emplaced in other time intervals. A 2019 geochronological study found that the emplacement of the Karoo-Ferrar large igneous province and the TOAE were not causally linked, and simply happened to occur rather close in time, contradicting mainstream interpretations of the TOAE. The authors of the study conclude that the timeline of the TOAE does not match up with the course of activity of the Karoo-Ferrar magmatic event. The large igneous province also intruded into coal seams, releasing even more carbon dioxide and methane than it otherwise would have. Carbon release via metamorphic heating of coal has been criticised as a major driver of the environmental perturbation, however, on the basis that coal transects themselves do not show the δ13C excursions that would be expected if significant quantities of thermogenic methane were released, suggesting that much of the degassed emissions were either condensed as pyrolytic carbon or trapped as coalbed methane. In addition, possible associated release of deep sea
methane clathrates has been potentially implicated as yet another cause of global warming. Episodic melting of methane clathrates dictated by
Milankovitch cycles has been put forward as an explanation fitting the observed shifts in the carbon isotope record. Other studies contradict and reject the methane hydrate hypothesis, however, concluding that the isotopic record is too incomplete to conclusively attribute the isotopic excursion to methane hydrate dissociation, that carbon isotope ratios in belemnites and bulk carbonates are incongruent with the isotopic signature expected from a massive release of methane clathrates, that much of the methane released from ocean sediments was rapidly sequestered, buffering its ability to act as a major positive feedback, and that methane clathrate dissociation occurred too late to have had an appreciable causal impact on the extinction event. Hypothetical release of methane clathrates extremely depleted in heavy carbon isotopes has furthermore been considered unnecessary as an explanation for the carbon cycle disruption. It has also been hypothesised that the release of cryospheric methane trapped in permafrost amplified the warming and its detrimental effects on marine life. Obliquity-paced carbon isotope excursions have been interpreted as some researchers as reflective of permafrost decline and consequent greenhouse gas release. The TOAE is believed to be the second largest anoxic event of the last 300 Ma, and possibly the largest of the Phanerozoic. Large igneous province resulted in increased
silicate weathering and an acceleration of the
hydrological cycle, as shown by an increased amount of terrestrially derived organic matter found in sedimentary rocks of marine origin during the TOAE. Concentrations of phosphorus, magnesium, and manganese rose in the oceans. A -0.5% excursion in δ44/40Ca provides further evidence of increased continental weathering. Osmium isotope ratios confirm further still a major increase in weathering. The enhanced continental weathering in turn led to increased eutrophication that helped drive the anoxic event in the oceans. Waters underwent partial denitrification in conjunction with enhanced marine productivity. Continual transport of continentally weathered nutrients into the ocean enabled high levels of primary productivity to be maintained over the course of the TOAE. as rising sea levels inundated low-lying lands, organic plant matter was transported outwards into the ocean. An alternate model for the development of anoxia is that epicontinental seaways became salinity stratified with strong
haloclines,
chemoclines, and
thermoclines. This caused mineralised carbon on the seafloor to be recycled back into the photic zone, driving widespread primary productivity and in turn anoxia. The freshening of the Arctic Ocean by way of melting of Northern Hemisphere ice caps was a likely trigger of such stratification and a slowdown of global thermohaline circulation. Stratification also occurred due to the freshening of surface water caused by an enhanced water cycle. Rising seawater temperatures amidst a transition from icehouse to greenhouse conditions further retarded ocean circulation, aiding the establishment of anoxic conditions. Geochemical evidence from what was then the northwestern European epicontinental sea suggests that a shift from cooler, more saline water conditions to warmer, fresher conditions prompted the development of significant density stratification of the water column and induced anoxia. Extensive organic carbon burial induced by anoxia was a negative feedback loop retarding the otherwise pronounced warming and may have caused global cooling in the aftermath of the TOAE. In anoxic and euxinic marine basins in Europe, organic carbon burial rates increased by ~500%.
Euxinia occurred in the northwestern
Tethys Ocean during the TOAE, as shown by a positive δ34S excursion in carbonate-associated sulphate occurs synchronously with the positive δ13C excursion in carbonate carbon during the
falciferum ammonite zone. This positive δ34S excursion has been attributed to the depletion of isotopically light sulphur in the marine sulphate reservoir that resulted from microbial sulphur reduction in anoxic waters. Similar positive δ34S excursions corresponding to the onset of TOAE are known from pyrites in the Sakahogi and Sakuraguchi-dani localities in Japan, with the Sakahogi site displaying a less extreme but still significant pyritic positive δ34S excursion during the PTo-E. Euxinia is further evidenced by enhanced pyrite burial in Zázrivá, Slovakia, enhanced
molybdenum burial totalling about 41 Gt of molybdenum, and δ98/95Mo excursions observed in sites in the
Cleveland, West Netherlands, and South German Basins. Valdorbia, a site in the Umbria-Marche Apennines, also exhibited euxinia during the anoxic event. Due to the clockwise circulation of the oceanic gyre in the western Tethys and the rough, uneven bathymetry in the northward limb of this gyre, oxic bottom waters had relatively few impediments to diffuse into the southwestern Tethys, which spared it from the far greater prevalence of anoxia and euxinia that characterised the northern Tethys. The Panthalassan deep water site of Sakahogi was mainly anoxic-ferruginous across the interval spanning the late Pliensbachian to the TOAE, but transient sulphidic conditions did occur during the PTo-E and TOAE. In northeastern Panthalassa, in what is now
British Columbia, euxinia dominated anoxic bottom waters. The early stages of the TOAE were accompanied by a decrease in the acidity of seawater following a substantial decrease prior to the TOAE. Seawater
pH then dropped close to the middle of the event, strongly acidifying the oceans. The sudden decline of carbonate production during the TOAE is widely believed to be the result of this abrupt episode of
ocean acidification. Additionally, the enhanced recycling of phosphorus back into seawater as a result of high temperatures and low seawater pH inhibited its mineralisation into apatite, helping contribute to oceanic anoxia. The abundance of phosphorus in marine environments created a positive feedback loop whose consequence was the further exacerbation of eutrophication and anoxia. The extreme and rapid global warming at the start of the Toarcian promoted intensification of tropical storms across the globe. == Effects on life ==