Alleged manipulation of polls During the run-up to the
2024 Venezuelan presidential election, several news outlets reported on the proliferation of polls favoring incumbent
Nicolás Maduro published since May 2024 by previously unknown polling firms, fuelling concerns that some polls were being used as
propaganda tools by
Chavismo. These poll results differed significantly from those published by more traditional pollsters, which showed Maduro trailing.
La Patilla reported a statement by sociologist Juan Manuel Trak saying that polls in Venezuela are systematically used as propaganda tools to influence public opinion on possible election results, providing examples of manipulated polls for propaganda purposes from both the government and the opposition. Informative Coalition (C-INFORMA) concluded that six out of fourteen evaluated firms, then-recently created and of dubious credibility, had published 37 public opinion studies used in a strategy to manipulate the electoral climate. They found seven pollsters to be part of a possible information manipulation campaign, six pollsters to be biased in favor of Maduro, and one pollster to be in favor of the opposition. Efecto Cocuyo stated that IdeaDatos then had no history of publishing its own polls on its Twitter account since its October 2020 creation and until May 2024, and there was "no further evidence of its existence as a company". Similar issues were found with Data Viva ("recently created, with methodological flaws, omissions about its business identity and a history of low-quality studies") and with CMIDE and Paramétrica. With a similar profile, the new pollster, Global Census, first appeared on social media in March 2024, and announced its first-time poll in favor of Maduro in June 2024.
IMC Orientación Efecto Cocuyo reported that on 1 July 2024 IMC Orientación published a poll placing Maduro in the lead, despite the firm's website having been created only days before its first poll and it listing no employees, management, address, phone number, contact email, or social media profiles. Efecto Cucuyo claimed the poll displayed methodological and statistical oddities, such as interviewing 66% women, and 100% of respondents identifying with a political party. The firm uses the same
web frameworks as Paramétrica and has a similar web design, in addition to claiming to have numerous studies and publications, without providing evidence. The poll was disseminated by several media outlets considered to be pro-Maduro. These findings led to Efecto Cocuyo classifying the firm as inconsistent. == Credibility of polling firms ==