Cancer is a stochastic effect of radiation, meaning that it only has a probability of occurrence, as opposed to deterministic effects which always happen over a certain dose threshold. The consensus of the nuclear industry, nuclear regulators, and governments, is that the incidence of cancers due to ionizing radiation can be modeled as increasing linearly with
effective radiation dose at a rate of 5.5% per
sievert. This model is widely accepted for external radiation, but its application to internal contamination is disputed. For example, the model fails to account for the low rates of cancer in early workers at
Los Alamos National Laboratory who were exposed to plutonium dust, and the high rates of thyroid cancer in children following the
Chernobyl accident, both of which were internal exposure events.
Chris Busby of the self styled "European Committee on Radiation Risk", calls the ICRP model "fatally flawed" when it comes to internal exposure. Radiation can cause cancer in most parts of the body, in all animals, and at any age, although radiation-induced solid tumors usually take 10–15 years, and can take up to 40 years, to become clinically manifest, and radiation-induced
leukemias typically require 2–9 years to appear. Some people, such as those with
nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome or
retinoblastoma, are more susceptible than average to developing cancer from radiation exposure. reflecting the high
radiosensitivity of bone marrow. Internal exposures tend to cause cancer in the organs where the radioactive material concentrates, so that
radon predominantly causes
lung cancer,
iodine-131 for thyroid cancer is most likely to cause
leukemia. Data sources The associations between ionizing radiation exposure and the development of cancer are based primarily on the "
LSS cohort" of Japanese
atomic bomb survivors, the largest human population ever exposed to high levels of ionizing radiation. However this cohort was also exposed to high heat, both from the initial nuclear
flash of infrared light and following the blast due their exposure to the
firestorm and general fires that developed in both cities respectively, so the survivors also underwent
Hyperthermia therapy to various degrees. Hyperthermia, or heat exposure following irradiation is well known in the field of radiation therapy to markedly increase the severity of free-radical insults to cells following irradiation. Presently however no attempts have been made to cater for this
confounding factor, it is not included or corrected for in the dose-response curves for this group. Additional data has been collected from recipients of selected medical procedures and the 1986
Chernobyl disaster. There is a clear link between the Chernobyl accident and the unusually large number, approximately 1,800, of thyroid cancers reported in contaminated areas, mostly in children. For low levels of radiation, the biological effects are so small they may not be detected in epidemiological studies. Although radiation may cause cancer at high doses and high dose rates,
public health data regarding lower levels of exposure, below about 10 mSv (1,000 mrem), are harder to interpret. To assess the health impacts of lower
radiation doses, researchers rely on models of the process by which radiation causes cancer; several models that predict differing levels of risk have emerged. Studies of occupational workers exposed to chronic low levels of radiation, above normal background, have provided mixed evidence regarding cancer and transgenerational effects. Cancer results, although uncertain, are consistent with estimates of risk based on atomic bomb survivors and suggest that these workers do face a small increase in the probability of developing leukemia and other cancers. One of the most recent and extensive studies of workers was published by Cardis
et al. in 2005. There is evidence that low level, brief radiation exposures are not harmful.
Modelling (D). The linear dose-response model suggests that any increase in dose, no matter how small, results in an incremental increase in risk. The
linear no-threshold model (LNT) hypothesis is accepted by the
International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and regulators around the world. According to this model, about 1% of the global population develop cancer as a result of natural
background radiation at some point in their lifetime. For comparison, 13% of deaths in 2008 are attributed to cancer, so background radiation could plausibly be a small contributor. Many parties have criticized the ICRP's adoption of the linear no-threshold model for exaggerating the effects of low radiation doses. The most frequently cited alternatives are the "linear quadratic" model and the "hormesis" model. The linear quadratic model is widely viewed in
radiotherapy as the best model of cellular survival, and it is the best fit to leukemia data from the LSS cohort. Other non-linear effects have been observed, particularly for
internal doses. For example,
iodine-131 is notable in that high doses of the isotope are sometimes less dangerous than low doses, since they tend to kill
thyroid tissues that would otherwise become cancerous as a result of the radiation. Most studies of very-high-dose I-131 for treatment of
Graves disease have failed to find any increase in thyroid cancer, even though there is linear increase in thyroid cancer risk with I-131 absorption at moderate doses. ==Public safety==