All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly. Names in
bold represent party leaders and cabinet ministers. † represents that the incumbent chose not to run again. § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination. ‡ represents that the incumbent ran in a different district. @ represents that the candidate was automatically granted the nomination by party leader. Nominations closed on June 7, 2004. Elections Canada released a final candidate list on June 9.
Party key and abbreviations guide Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Throughout most of recent history, the
Liberals have dominated in federal politics in Quebec, even when Quebec voters were simultaneously electing the
Parti Québécois at the provincial level. There have been temporary
Progressive Conservative breakthroughs under
Diefenbaker in the
1958 election, and under native son
Brian Mulroney in the
1984 election and the
1988 election, but these did not last. The 1958 result was helped by an alliance with
Maurice Duplessis's formidable provincial electoral machine. But by the
1962 election, Duplessis had died and his
Union Nationale party was out of office and in disarray, and Diefenbaker's support in Quebec had evaporated. The Mulroney-era resurgence also collapsed entirely when he retired from politics. The
Bloc Québécois was formed for the
1993 election in the aftermath of the failure of the
Meech Lake Accord and
Charlottetown Accord, and has won more seats in Quebec than the Liberals in every election it has run in. The number of seats won by the Bloc has declined in each successive election from 1993 to 1997 to 2000. The party has now had a resurgence due to the
sponsorship scandal and the unpopularity of
Jean Charest's provincial
Liberal government, which influences support for the federal Liberals even though the two parties are independent of one another. Polls show the Bloc with a strong lead, and they may return to the number of seats they had in 1993. However, the Liberals are likely to dominate in many parts of Montreal. Ridings where Anglophone voters are a significant factor are among the safest Liberal seats in all of Canada. The other two major federal parties, the
Conservatives and the
New Democratic Party (NDP) are not expected to win any seats and are struggling to move out of single digits in the polls. The NDP in particular has historically never had any electoral success in Quebec up to that point.
Eastern Quebec Côte-Nord and Saguenay Quebec City Central Quebec Eastern Townships Montérégie Eastern Montreal Western Montreal Northern Montreal and Laval Laurentides, Outaouais and Northern Quebec Ontario Ontario was predicted to be the battle ground of this election. Most pundits believed that this is where the election was lost for the Conservatives. Ontario is home to more than one third of all of Canada's ridings. In the last three elections, right wing vote splitting has resulted in just six riding losses for the Liberals, compared to 299 riding wins. However, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives have merged, and they should win many seats in Ontario, especially in rural ridings in midwestern Ontario, Central-eastern Ontario, and Central Ontario. The NDP has some support in various pockets in Ontario in the past, but has only won one riding in the last three elections, and one more in a by-election, both in
Windsor. However, the NDP was expected to do well not only in Windsor, but in
Hamilton, Downtown
Toronto,
Ottawa Centre, and possibly even in
Northern Ontario.
Ottawa Eastern Ontario Central Ontario Southern Durham and York Central Toronto Suburban Toronto Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Midwestern Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario Manitoba Manitoba is traditionally split between the NDP, the Liberals, and the Conservatives. This is especially true in the city of
Winnipeg where most Manitobans live. However, due to vote splitting in recent elections, neither the Progressive Conservatives or the Canadian Alliance/Reform Party have been able to win in Winnipeg. In rural Manitoba, the Liberals are usually shut out of elections (exception in 1993). Conservative support is normally in the more populous south, with NDP support in the sparsely populated north, which usually only means one seat.
Rural Manitoba Winnipeg Saskatchewan In terms of party lines, Saskatchewan is not divided up between north and south but by urban and rural. Traditionally, Saskatchewan has been a two-way race between the Conservatives, and later the Reform/Alliance and the NDP. Recent vote splitting has allowed the Liberals to come through and win a few seats in this polarized province. Urban Saskatchewan has tended to vote NDP and rural Saskatchewan has tended to vote Conservative. This is especially true in provincial politics, where riding boundaries more reflect the urban/rural divide. Both Saskatoon and Regina, Saskatchewans largest cities are split into 4 ridings each. All eight of these ridings are generally split evenly between rural and urban. Northern Saskatchewan has in the past been the stand-alone region of rural Saskatchewan, usually voting for the NDP.
Southern Saskatchewan Northern Saskatchewan Alberta Alberta is unarguably the most Conservative province in Canada. You need only look at the results of the ridings here in the last century to prove this. Alberta has long been a Progressive Conservative province, but with the collapse of the party in 1993, Albertans went to the Reform Party of Canada (later the Canadian Alliance) for their vote. Edmonton seems to be the only exception to this. The Liberals have won in Edmonton six times since 1993, and the NDP has won in Edmonton as well.
Rural Alberta Edmonton and environs Edmonton is the most left wing area of Alberta, but this doesn't say much. Much like the rest of Alberta, Edmonton usually always votes for the leading right wing party of the day. This is the one area of Alberta where the Liberals have been able to win anything in recent years, winning two seats in both 1997 and 2000, and four seats in 1993. The NDP have also won a seat in Edmonton, doing so in 1988. The two Liberal incumbents are both in close races, and the new Conservative Party of Canada could possibly sweep Edmonton, and therefore all of Alberta.
Calgary Calgary, the largest city in Alberta is just as Conservative as rural Alberta. The Progressive Conservatives swept Calgary until 1993, then it was the Reform Party in 1993 and 1997, then the Canadian Alliance in 2000. The one abnormal seat was when Progressive Conservative Party leader
Joe Clark won the riding of Calgary Centre in 2000. It is expected the Conservatives will once again sweep Calgary in 2004.
British Columbia British Columbia is what many pundits consider to be the complete opposite of a bellwether region. British Columbia has a history of voting against the government. This has meant the NDP in the 1980s and the Reform/Canadian Alliance in the 1990s. More recently, regional trends have started to appear in B.C. The interior votes very Conservative, as the Canadian Alliance swept this area in 2000. B.C. has in the past been a province that would swing from one extreme to the other going for the right wing Social Credit to the left wing NDP in the past, in not only federal elections but provincial elections. The NDP also does well in British Columbia, or at least has in the past. Recently, they have been reduced to seats in the Vancouver area. There is hope that they will return to more traditional NDP seats on Vancouver Island, and in the interior. The Liberals have also won a few seats in B.C. recently, an area they have traditionally done very poor. Their strengths are in Victoria and in Vancouver.
Interior B.C. Fraser Valley and Southern Lower Mainland Vancouver and Northern Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Nunavut Northwest Territories Yukon ==See also==