Governance The regime type of the government is an indicator on whether the nation is in danger of genocide or not. An
anocracy and a transitional government are the types that have the most danger while a full monarchy is the most stable. The nation also has a higher risk if there is state legitimacy deficit, which would include high corruption, disregard for constitutional norms, or mass protests. If a state structure is weak and provides poor basic services for the citizens, restricted the rule of law, or has a lack of civilian protection, it also creates a higher risk and could become unstable. If there is identity-based polar factionalism or systematic state-led discrimination through exclusionary ideology, or political contentious along identity line this can create a divide of people in the nation creating different ranks and violence amongst the civilians.
Conflict history A state is more likely to experience genocide or mass atrocity if it has a history of identity-related tensions, otherwise known as a tendency to other, or if it has committed prior genocides/
politicides, this is because a government may already have the previous weapons, strategies, and power since the last genocide. It is also aware of how much damage it can do once more if it has evaded repercussions for human rights violations in the past. Also, if a state has had a record of serious violations of international human rights laws, the population of the country is more desensitised to the violence and it may also be less aware of what is happening around it. Other conflict histories that put a state at risk are past cultural traumas that have hurt the core social identity of the state, or if the people have been known to have a legacy of group grievances or vengeance. The more conflict a country has had in the past can make its population more unstable and more at risk for genocide.
Economic conditions States with low levels of economic development are more likely to have problems because it creates a low
opportunity cost for mass violence, as the citizens' lives aren't valued as much as in an economy that has high levels. States that practice economic discrimination, make it so one group of people have the most economic opportunity, forcing the other group to be unemployed or if they have horizontal economic inequalities, which is when a country's economy is based on a small number of opportunities, and products. Those conditions with the addition of high unemployment rates, foreign debt, and informal economies such as growing
black markets a country is at risk of its economic conditions playing into their risk factors for Genocide.
Social fragmentation Social fragmentation can by five major subcategories; identity-based social divisions, demographic pressures, unequal access to basic goods and services, gender inequalities, and political instability. Identity-based social divisions, constitute of differential access to power, wealth, status, and resources, meaning that certain people have more access to what the need to live than others, or when a state practices hate speech, like
RTLMC in Rwanda. Demographic pressures can be experienced in a state has a high population density, massive movements of refugees or internal displaced peoples, or a male youth bulge, which means that there is a high male population with nothing really to do. Unequal access to basic goods and services, which can be shown by high infant mortality rates, as mothers and children would not be getting the proper care that they needed to grow and be healthy. Gender inequalities are shown in rate of violence against women, as these are normally an indicator of how the country views their women, and if it is a low rate they normally see them more as equals. Political instability can be revealed by hurtful regime changes, threats of armed conflict, proportions of populations that are armed, and where the country is in the world, and if its neighboring countries have conflict it has been known to spill into the neighboring regions. If a nation has one or more of these risk factors it does not mean that they will have a genocide but they are simply additive factors that when put together can be used to help predict and defuse a tense, or dangerous, situation. There is no guarantee or formula that allows you to predict the future but instead thing to help us learn from the past to help protect the future. == UN risk assessment "Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes" ==