On-road and run-off-road accidents Single-vehicle crashes are classified into two groups:
run-off-road (ROR), and on-road (OR) crashes in which the vehicle remains on the road after the crash. ROR crashes can account for up to 70% of the fatal single-vehicle crashes. ROR crashes are due to inattention, speeding, traction loss, overreaction, crash avoidance, and mechanical failure. Rumble strips only prevent ROR crashes due to inattention. Research indicates that 47% of RORs exited the highway to the left; while 53% exited the highway to the right (in the USA where driving is on the
right-hand-side of the road).
Inattentive driving A
US Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) sponsored study stated that driver inattention comes in many forms, including distraction, daydreaming/competing thoughts, fatigue/drowsiness, and alcohol/drug impairment. In a 2008 survey in the US, 33% of fatally injured drivers tested were found to be legally impaired (
BAC > 80 mg %), and an additional 5% were found to have a legal amount of alcohol in their bodies. Canada has similar statistics.
Migration of accidents Studies support the hypothesis that some crashes are not prevented, but merely "migrated" or displaced from vehicle to vehicle, season to season, or location to location (e.g., further downstream of rumble strips on the highway system), and that such crashes may be no less severe than ones prevented by rumble strips. An FHWA sponsored study wrestled with the moral dilemma of rumble strips keeping "unsafe drivers" (which includes impaired drivers) on the highway. "This group of unsafe drivers temporarily saved by the rumble strips may have caused some multiple-vehicle crashes involving harm to innocent victims to occur downstream from the treated site where no rumble strips existed. Unfortunately, as noted above, an examination of downstream crashes could not be conducted." A 2003 Montana study suggested that on Interstates, shoulder rumble reduced the roll-over accident rates but the severity of unprevented roll-over accidents increased. This was thought to be due to the rumble strip "scaring" sleeping drivers to the extent that they overreacted. This problem was more pronounced on primary highways (that have narrower shoulders) with rumble strips.
"Classic" one-car crashes The 'classic' one-car crash results when a vehicle slowly drifts to the right, hits dirt or rumble strips on the
right shoulder of the road, and the driver becomes alert and overreacts, jerking the wheel left to bring the vehicle back onto the road. This motion causes the left front tire to strike the raised edge of the pavement at a sharp angle, often causing a rollover or a swerve into oncoming traffic. This form of one-car crash is "classic" because it occurs very often. Raised edges of pavement (or "edge-drops") were once common, but are now recognized as a hazard; it is now standard practice to level the gravel shoulder with the pavement, although edge-drops may reform due to
soil erosion. This "slowly drift to the right" scenario applies to jurisdictions with
right-hand traffic, so in jurisdictions with
left-hand traffic it would be a "slowly drift to the left" scenario. This phenomenon implies that a sleeping driver often does not react and begin to recover, until all four wheels have struck a rumble strip; if the paved shoulder is narrower than the width of the vehicle wheel track, a rumble strip may not prevent a sleeping driver from going off the road. On a single-lane highway, an overreacting driver has less room to regain control, which may exacerbate their initial overreaction after striking the strips, resulting in a roll-over or head-on collision. A crash investigating officer stated: "It's consistent with someone who falls asleep or overreacts to the rumble strips", which implied that this was not the first time the officer has witnessed this situation. Note that in the KATU.com article photograph (in the upper left-hand corner) of the crash scene, the passenger-side tire print in the soft shoulder that suggests that all four wheels passed over the rumble strip before the driver attempted the unsuccessful recovery.
Fluidity of accident profiles Accident profiles can change over time, and this can be considered a form of migration. Studies from Canada shows that over one decade the rate of off-road ATV accidents requiring hospitalization increased by 66%, while the rate for snowmobile accidents decreased 20%. Many of these recreational vehicle owners own both or choose one over the other. Data from the US shows that motorcycles are becoming more popular and that motorcycle fatalities are increasing, while car fatalities are decreasing. A 2006 US study suggested that
airbags and
antilock brakes can lead to unsafe driving. A 2007 Canadian study suggested that unsafe drivers are habitual, and that unsafe driving is increasing. A 2009 Canadian study indicated that, after a steady decline, drinking and driving has been on the increase since 2004. These support the migration and behavioral adaptation rumble strip concerns. A safe driver population has more potential for negative behavior adaptation than an extreme unsafe driver population; whereas, an extreme unsafe driver population has more potential for positive behavior adaptation than a safe driver population.
Accident rates and profile Different jurisdictions have different accident and fatality rates, as a function of various factors such as climate, road layout, demographics, educational programs, level of policing, driver attitudes toward night driving, promptness of emergency response, and level of medical intervention. The 2008 US rate is 20.05. Installing rumble strips along a highway that is highly engaging, with a narrow shoulder, a low accident rate, and relatively low proportion of accidents due to fatigue or inattentive driving would have questionable value.
Diminishing marginal returns In addition, safety improvements are not linear; there are diminishing marginal returns with a safer driver population, in which it is more difficult to further reduce the accident rate. Within the industrialized countries the rate varies between about 8 and 27 (per 100,000 licensed drivers per year). "Safety improvements are usually subject to the law of diminishing marginal returns. This means that for every improvement of a fixed amount, the safety benefit gained decreases a little each time. For example, increasing the width of the median from 50m to 60m will decrease the number of collisions less than increasing it from 10m to 20m. Eventually, a width will be reached at which widening the median further cannot be justified because the improvement in safety is too small." When the accident rate is close to the baseline of 8, there may already be several factors pushing it down so adding another safety factor (initiative) will only yield a very small improvement. Installing rumble strips on a highway with a high accident rate close to 27 should yield a relatively high accident reduction. This assumes that the road shoulder is adequate for a recovery, once a straying driver has been alerted by the rumble strips. ==Types of rumble strips==