During the study, 125 of the 16,402 participants contracted HIV through behavior unrelated to their study participation. Of those 125, 74 infected persons had received placebo and 51 had received the vaccine, or 31.2% reduction. By one of the three pre-decided statistical tests for analysis of the trial there was a statistically significant lower rate of infection in the vaccine group compared to the placebo group, with p=0.04 for the "modified intent to treat" analysis that excluded persons who were found to have HIV infection after enrollment but before the first vaccination. However, by the other two methods of analysis, there was no
statistical significance in infection rates between the vaccine and placebo groups, with p=0.08 for the "intent to treat analysis" including all persons originally enrolled in the trial, and p=0.16 for the "per protocol analysis" including only persons from the modified intent to treat group who completed all three vaccinations and subsequent screening. In May 2011, a new analysis initiated at
Duke University showed that there is a 29% chance that the vaccine is not effective (although this
posterior probability is very different conceptually from a
p-value, and cannot be directly compared to the p=.04 from the original analysis).
Cautious optimism In a study in September 2011, researchers involved with the trial at
Mahidol University in Bangkok and the
United States Military HIV Research Program in Washington DC tested the blood of trial subjects for different immune indicators between those who received the vaccine and contracted HIV (41 subjects) and those who did not become infected (205 subjects). Their work is not complete, but those in the study who produced
IgG antibodies that recognise the V2 loop in the HIV envelope protein
gp120 were 43% less likely to become infected. Those who produced envelope specific
IgA were 54% more likely to become infected, but no more susceptible than trial subjects receiving the placebo. However, these studies all emphasize that such post-hoc analyses are subject to inherent bias and must be interpreted with caution. The immune responses of uninfected patients could point the way to more fruitful research. Nelson Michael, director of the U.S. Military HIV Research Program who ran the trial, says that results lend "biological credence to the initial clinical study results".
Conclusion The vaccine was found to be safe, well tolerated, and suitable for large-scale further research. ==Sponsors==