• Given any two cards, there is exactly one card that forms a set with those two cards. Therefore, the probability of producing a Set from 3 randomly drawn cards from a complete deck is 1/79. • A
cap set is a
mathematical structure describing a Set layout in which no set may be taken. The largest group of cards that can be put together without creating a set is 20, proven in 1971 (cap sets were studied before the game). Such a group is called a maximal cap set .
Donald Knuth found in 2001 that there are 682344 such cap sets of size 20 for the 81-card version of Set; under affine transformations on 4-dimensional finite space, they all reduce to essentially one cap set. • There are \textstyle\frac{3} = \frac{81 \times 80}{2 \times 3} = 1080 unique sets. • The probability that a set will have d features different and 4 - d features the same is \textstyle\frac{{4 \choose d}2^d}{80}. (Note: The case where
d = 0 is impossible, since no two cards are identical.) Thus, 10% of possible sets differ in one feature, 30% in two features, 40% in three features, and 20% in all four features. \frac{3} - \frac{n(81-n)}{2}. --> • The number of different 12-card deals is \textstyle{81 \choose 12} = \frac{81!}{12! 69!} = 70\,724\,320\,184\,700 \approx 7.07 \times 10^{13}. • The odds against there being no
Set in 12 cards when playing a game of Set start off at 30:1 for the first round. Then they quickly fall, and after about the 4th round they are 14:1 and for the next 20 rounds, they slowly fall towards 13:1. So for most of the rounds played, the odds are between 14:1 and 13:1. • The odds against there being no Set in 15 cards
when playing a game are 88:1. • The maximum number of Sets for 12 cards is 14. • The average number of available Sets among 12 cards is \textstyle{12 \choose 3} \cdot \frac{1}{79} \approx 2.78 and among 15 cards \textstyle{15 \choose 3} \cdot \frac{1}{79} \approx 5.76. However, in play the numbers are smaller. • If there were 26 sets picked from the deck, the last three cards would necessarily form another 27th set. == Complexity ==