Limitations
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on last vote. This can introduce new errors if voters misstate their previous votes. When used for the 2024 presidential election it had produced results closer to the 2020 presidential election than the 2022 mid-term election. == Forecasts ==
Forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: • "tossup": no advantage • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters are omitted for brevity. == Alabama ==