Central Atlantic Magmatic Province volcanism at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary The leading and best evidenced explanation for the TJME is massive volcanic eruptions, specifically from the
Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), the largest known
large igneous province by area, and one of the most voluminous, with its flood basalts extending across parts of southwestern Europe, northeastern South America, and southeastern North America. The coincidence and synchrony of CAMP activity and the TJME is indicated by
uranium–lead dating,
argon-argon dating, and
palaeomagnetism. with values as low as -2.8%. Carbon isotopes of hydrocarbons (
n-alkanes) derived from leaf wax and
lignin, and
total organic carbon from two sections of lake sediments interbedded with the CAMP in eastern North America have shown carbon isotope excursions similar to those found in the mostly marine St. Audrie's Bay section, Somerset, England; the correlation suggests that the TJME began at the same time in marine and terrestrial environments, slightly before the oldest basalts in eastern North America but simultaneous with the eruption of the oldest flows in Morocco, with both a critical greenhouse and a marine biocalcification crisis. Furthermore, chemostratigraphic analysis in the
Junggar Basin has shown that the negative δ13C excursions associated with CAMP volcanism corresponded in time to biotic turnovers in the palynomorph record, strongly suggesting a causal relationship between the two. Contemporaneous CAMP eruptions, mass extinction, and the carbon isotopic excursions are shown in the same places, making the case for a volcanic cause of a mass extinction. The observed negative carbon isotope excursion is lower in some sites that correspond to what was then eastern Panthalassa because of the extreme aridity of western Pangaea limiting weathering and erosion there. The negative δ13C excursion associated with CAMP volcanism lasted for approximately 20,000 to 40,000 years, or about one or two of Earth's axial precession cycles, although the carbon cycle was so disrupted that it did not stabilise until the Sinemurian. Mercury anomalies from deposits in various parts of the world have further bolstered the volcanic cause hypothesis, as have anomalies from various platinum-group elements. Nickel enrichments are also observed at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary coevally with light carbon enrichments, providing yet more evidence of massive volcanism. Some scientists initially rejected the volcanic eruption theory because the
Newark Supergroup, a section of rock in eastern North America that records the Triassic–Jurassic boundary, contains no ash-fall horizons and because its oldest
basalt flows were estimated to lie around 10 m above the transition zone, which they estimated to have occurred 610 kyr after the TJME. Also among their objections was that the Triassic-Jurassic boundary was poorly defined and the CAMP eruptions poorly constrained temporally. However, updated dating protocol and wider sampling has confirmed that the CAMP eruptions started in
Morocco only a few thousand years before the extinction, and that they continued in several more pulses for the next 600,000 years. In addition, at some sites, changes in carbon isotope ratios have been attributed to
diagenesis and not any primary environmental changes.
Global warming The flood basalts of the CAMP released gigantic quantities of
carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas causing intense global warming. Before the TJME, carbon dioxide levels were around 1,000 ppm as measured by the stomatal index of
Lepidopteris ottonis, but this quantity jumped to 1,300 ppm at the onset of the extinction event. During the TJME, carbon dioxide concentrations increased fourfold. The record of CAMP degassing shows several distinct pulses of carbon dioxide immediately following each major pulse of magmatism, at least two of which amount to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Carbon dioxide was emitted quickly and in enormous quantities compared to other periods of Earth's history, rate of carbon dioxide emissions was one of the most meteoric rises in carbon dioxide levels in Earth's entire history. It is estimated that a single volcanic pulse from the large igneous province would have emitted an amount of carbon dioxide roughly equivalent to projected anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions for the 21st century. In addition, the flood basalts intruded through sediments that were rich in organic matter and combusted it, as evidenced by low Δ199Hg values showing elevated levels of organic matter-derived mercury in the environment. The degassing of
volatiles resulting from volcanic intrusions into organic-rich sediments further enhanced the volcanic warming of the climate. Thermogenic carbon release through such
contact metamorphism of carbon-rich deposits has been found to be a sensible hypothesis providing a coherent explanation for the magnitude of the negative carbon isotope excursions at the terminus of the Triassic. Global temperatures rose sharply by 3 to 4 °C. In some regions, the temperature rise was as great as 10 °C. Kaolinite-dominated clay mineral spectra reflect the extremely hot and humid greenhouse conditions engendered by the CAMP. Soil erosion occurred as the hydrological cycle was accelerated by the extreme global heat. The catastrophic dissociation of
gas hydrates as a positive feedback resulting from warming, which has been suggested as one possible cause of the PTME, the largest
mass extinction of all time, may have exacerbated greenhouse conditions, although others suggest that methane hydrate release was temporally mismatched with the TJME and thus not a cause of it.
Global cooling Besides the carbon dioxide-driven long-term global warming, CAMP volcanism had shorter term cooling effects resulting from the emission of
sulphur dioxide aerosols. High latitudes had colder climates with evidence of mild glaciation during the extinction interval. Cold periods induced by volcanic ejecta clouding the atmosphere might have favoured
endothermic animals, with dinosaurs, pterosaurs, and mammals being more capable at enduring these conditions than large pseudosuchians due to insulation.
Metal poisoning CAMP volcanism released enormous amounts of toxic
mercury. The appearance of high rates of mutagenesis of varying severity in fossil spores during the TJME coincides with mercury anomalies and is thus believed by researchers to have been caused by
mercury poisoning. δ202Hg and Δ199Hg evidence suggests that volcanism caused the mercury loading directly at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, but that there were later bouts of elevated mercury in the environment during the Early Jurassic caused by eccentricity-forced enhancement of hydrological cycling and erosion that resulted in remobilisation of volcanically injected mercury that had been deposited in wetlands.
Wildfires The intense, rapid warming is believed to have resulted in increased storminess and lightning activity as a consequence of the more humid climate. The uptick in lightning activity is in turn implicated as a cause of an increase in wildfire activity. The combined presence of charcoal fragments and heightened levels of pyrolytic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Polish sedimentary facies straddling the Triassic-Jurassic boundary indicates wildfires were extremely commonplace during the earliest Jurassic, immediately after the Triassic-Jurassic transition. Elevated wildfire activity is also known from the Junggar Basin. In the Jiyuan Basin, two distinct pulses of drastically elevated wildfire activity are known: the first mainly affected canopies and occurred amidst relatively humid conditions while the second predominantly affected ground cover and was associated with aridity. At the Winterswijk quarry in the Netherlands, a surge in wildfire activity has been suggested to correspond to and have caused the sudden decline in coniferous vegetation. Frequent wildfires, combined with increased seismic activity from CAMP emplacement, led to apocalyptic
soil degradation.
Anoxia and euxinia Anoxia was another mechanism of extinction; the end-Triassic extinction was coeval with an uptick in black shale deposition and a pronounced negative δ238U excursion, indicating a major decrease in marine oxygen availability. Evidence of anoxia has been discovered at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary across the world's oceans; the western Tethys, eastern Tethys, and Panthalassa were all affected by a precipitous drop in seawater oxygen, although at a few sites, the TJME was associated with fully oxygenated waters. Positive
δ15N excursions have also been interpreted as evidence of anoxia concomitant with increased denitrification in marine sediments in the TJME's aftermath. In northeastern Panthalassa, episodes of anoxia were already occurring during the Rhaetian before the TJME, making its marine ecosystems unstable even before the main crisis began. This early phase of
environmental degradation in eastern Panthalassa may have been caused by an early phase of CAMP activity. Anoxic, reducing conditions were likewise present in western Panthalassa off the coast of what is now Japan for about a million years prior to the TJME. During the TJME, the rapid warming led to the stagnation of ocean circulation in many ocean regions, enabling the development of catastrophic anoxia; in what is now northwestern Europe, shallow seas became salinity stratified, enabling easy development of anoxia. Another factor contributing to anoxia was the increase in continental weathering driven by intense warming that delivered vast quantities of nutrients to the ocean surface and engendered eutrophication; this uptick in weathering is evidenced by positive δ56Fe excursions. A combination of negative δ66Zn excursions, positive δ26Mg excursions, and a lack of significant change in δ65Cu provides further evidence of increased chemical weathering resulting from increased temperature and humidity on land at high latitudes. Increased influx of terrestrial organic matter, in conjunction with reduced salinity, has been directly shown to have enkindled anoxia in the Eiberg Basin. Persistent low δ238U ratios indicate prolonged global oxygen depletion continued into the Hettangian, with 87Sr/86Sr values showing that high influxes of terrestrial nutrients likely continued to eutrophicate the oceans well after the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. The persistence of anoxia into the Hettangian age may have helped delay the recovery of marine life in the extinction's aftermath.
Euxinia, a form of anoxia defined by not just the absence of dissolved oxygen but high concentrations of
hydrogen sulphide, also developed in the oceans, as indicated by findings of increased isorenieratane. The increase in concentration of this substance reveals that populations of
green sulphur bacteria, which photosynthesise using
hydrogen sulphide instead of water, grew significantly across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. A meteoric shift towards positive sulphur isotope ratios in reduced sulphur species indicates a complete utilisation of sulphate by sulphate reducing bacteria. Off the shores of the Wrangellia Terrane, the onset of photic zone euxinia was preceded by an interval of limited nitrogen availability and increased nitrogen fixation in surface waters while euxinia developed in bottom waters. Recurrent hydrogen sulphide poisoning following the TJME had retarding effects on biotic rediversification. acting in conjunction with marine anoxia. Additionally, acidification was enhanced and exacerbated by widespread photic zone euxinia, which caused increased rates of organic matter respiration and carbon dioxide release. Direct evidence of ocean acidification in the former of δ11B ratios in fossil oysters is known from the TJME interval. Further evidence for ocean acidification as an extinction mechanism comes from the preferential extinction of marine organisms with thick aragonitic skeletons and little biotic control of biocalcification (e.g., corals, hypercalcifying sponges), which resulted in a coral reef collapse Extensive fossil remains of malformed calcareous nannoplankton, a common sign of significant drops in pH, have also been extensively reported from the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. In some studied sections, the TJME biocalcification crisis is masked by emersion of carbonate platforms induced by marine regression.
Ozone depletion Research on the role of ozone shield deterioration during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction has suggested that it may have been a factor in the TJME as well. A spike in the abundance of unseparated tetrads of
Kraeuselisporites reissingerii has been interpreted as evidence of increased ultraviolet radiation flux resulting from ozone layer damage caused by volcanic aerosols.
Gradual climate change The extinctions at the end of the Triassic were initially attributed to gradually changing environments. Within his 1958 study recognizing biological turnover between the Triassic and Jurassic,
Edwin H. Colbert's proposal was that this extinction was a result of geological processes decreasing the diversity of land biomes. He considered the Triassic period to be an era of the world experiencing a variety of environments, from towering highlands to arid deserts to tropical marshes. In contrast, the Jurassic period was much more uniform both in climate and elevation due to excursions by shallow seas. The world gradually got warmer over this time as well; from the late Norian to the Rhaetian, mean annual temperatures rose by 7 to 9 °C. The site of Hochalm in Austria preserves evidence of carbon cycle perturbations during the Rhaetian preceding the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, potentially having a role in the ecological crisis.
Sea level fall Geological formations in Europe and the Middle East seem to indicate a drop in sea levels at the end of the Triassic associated with the TJME. Although falling sea levels have sometimes been considered a culprit for marine extinctions, evidence is inconclusive since many sea level drops in geological history are not correlated with increased extinctions. However, there is still some evidence that marine life was affected by secondary processes related to falling sea levels, such as decreased oxygenation (caused by sluggish circulation), or increased acidification. These processes do not seem to have been worldwide, with the sea level fall observed in European sediments believed to be not global but regional, and with even some European sections showing no sign of sea level fall across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, but they may explain local extinctions in European marine fauna. A pronounced sea level change in latest Triassic records from
Lake Williston in northeastern
British Columbia, which was then the northeastern margin of Panthalassa, resulted in an extinction event of infaunal (sediment-dwelling) bivalves, though not epifaunal ones.
Extraterrestrial impact in
Quebec, a massive crater formed by a Late Triassic impact. Radiometric dating has determined that it is about 13 million years older than the Triassic–Jurassic boundary, and thus an unlikely candidate for a mass extinction. Some have hypothesized that an impact from an
asteroid or
comet caused the Triassic–Jurassic extinction, Nevertheless, the Manicouagan impact did have a widespread effect on the planet; a 214-million-year-old
ejecta blanket of
shocked quartz has been found in rock layers as far away as
England and Japan. There is still a possibility that the Manicouagan impact was responsible for a small extinction midway through the Late Triassic at the Carnian–Norian boundary, The boundary between the Adamanian and Revueltian land vertebrate faunal zones, which involved extinctions and faunal changes in tetrapods and plants, was possibly also caused by the Manicouagan impact, although discrepancies between magnetochronological and isotopic dating lead to some uncertainty. Other Triassic craters are closer to the Triassic–Jurassic boundary but also much smaller than the Manicouagan reservoir. The eroded
Rochechouart impact structure in
France has most recently been dated to million years ago, but at across (possibly up to across originally), it appears to be too small to have affected the ecosystem, although it has been speculated to have played a role in an alleged much smaller extinction event at the Norian-Rhaetian boundary. The wide
Saint Martin crater in
Manitoba has been proposed as a candidate for a possible TJME-causing impact, but it has since been dated to be Carnian. Other putative or confirmed Triassic craters include the wide
Puchezh-Katunki crater in Eastern
Russia (though it may be
Jurassic in age), the wide
Obolon' crater in
Ukraine, and the wide
Red Wing Creek structure in
North Dakota. Spray
et al. (1998) noted an interesting phenomenon, that being how the Manicouagan, Rochechouart, and Saint Martin craters all seem to be at the same latitude, and that the Obolon' and Red Wing craters form parallel arcs with the Rochechouart and Saint Martin craters, respectively. Spray and his colleagues hypothesized that the Triassic experienced a "multiple impact event", a large fragmented asteroid or comet which broke up and impacted the earth in several places at the same time. and radiometric dating of the individual craters has shown that the impacts occurred millions of years apart. Certain trace metals indicative of a
bolide impact have been found in the late Rhaetian, though not at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary itself; the discoverers of these trace metal anomalies purport that such a bolide impact could only have been an indirect cause of the TJME. The discovery of
seismites two to four metres thick coeval with the carbon isotope fluctuations associated with the TJME has been interpreted as evidence of a possible bolide impact, although no definitive link between these seismites and any impact event has been found. On the other hand, the dissimilarity between the isotopic perturbations characterising the TJME and those characterising the end-Cretaceous mass extinction makes an extraterrestrial impact highly unlikely to have been the cause of the TJME, according to many researchers. Various trace metal ratios, including palladium/iridium, platinum/iridium, and platinum/rhodium, in rocks deposited during the TJME have numerical values very different from what would be expected in an extraterrestrial impact scenario, providing further evidence against this hypothesis. ==Comparisons to present climate change==