Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario is "[o]ne of the most commonly used alternative scenarios". A risk manager may request "a conservative risk estimate representing a worst-case scenario" in order to determine the latitude they may exercise in planning steps to reduce risks. Generally, a worst-case scenario "is settled upon by agreeing that a given worst case is bad enough. However, it is important to recognize that no worst-case scenario is truly without potential nasty surprises". In other words, ‘[a] “worst-case scenario” is never the worst case’, both because situations may arise that no planner could reasonably foresee, In this field, "[a]s in other fields, the worst-case scenario is a useful device when low probability events may result in a catastrophe that must be avoided even at great cost, but in most health risk assessments, a worst-case scenario is essentially a type of bounding estimate". ==Criticisms==

A number of criticisms have been leveled against the use of worst-case scenarios. Entities that rely on such scenarios in planning may be led to plan too conservatively to take advantage of the usual absence of such scenarios, and may waste resources preparing for highly unlikely contingencies. Elishakoff et al. and Hlavacek et al. developed the worst-case analysis based on convex constraints, representing uncertainty in applied mechanics. ==See also==