Events in France now came to influence the future of the company. A Scottish economist and financier,
John Law, exiled after killing a man in a duel, had travelled around Europe before settling in France. There he founded a bank, which in December 1718 became the Banque Royale, national bank of France, while Law himself was granted sweeping powers to control the economy of France, which operated largely by royal decree. Law's remarkable success was known in financial circles throughout Europe, and came to inspire Blunt and his associates to make greater efforts to grow their own concerns. In February 1719 Craggs explained to the House of Commons a new scheme for improving the national debt by converting the annuities issued after the 1710 lottery into South Sea stock. By an act of Parliament, the
National Debt Act 1719 (
6 Geo. 1. c. 4), the company was granted the right to issue £1,150 of new stock for every £100 per annum of annuity which was surrendered. The government would pay 5 per cent per annum on the stock created, which would halve their annual bill. The conversion was voluntary, amounting to £2.5 million new stock if all converted. The company was to make an additional new loan to the government pro rata up to £750,000, again at 5 per cent. In March there was an abortive attempt to restore the Old Pretender,
James Edward Stuart, to the throne of Britain, with a small landing of troops in Scotland. They were defeated at the
Battle of Glen Shiel on 10 June. The South Sea company presented the offer to the public in July 1719. The Sword Blade company spread a rumour that the Pretender had been captured, and the general euphoria induced the South Sea share price to rise from £100, where it had been in the spring, to £114. Annuitants were still paid out at the same money value of shares, the company keeping the profit from the rise in value before issuing. About two-thirds of the annuities were exchanged.
Trading more debt for equity ,
Emblematical Print on the South Sea Scheme (1721). In the bottom left corner are Protestant, Catholic, and Jewish figures gambling, while in the middle there is a huge machine, like a merry-go-round, which people are boarding. At the top is a goat, written below which is "Who'l Ride". The people are scattered around the picture with a sense of disorder, while the progress of the well-dressed people towards the ride in the middle represents the foolishness of the crowd in buying stock in the South Sea Company, which spent more time issuing stock than anything else. Honor at left is dismembered; Honesty in center is
broken on the wheel and at lower right trade lies dead. The 1719 scheme was a distinct success for the government and they sought to repeat it. Negotiations took place between Aislabie and Craggs for the government and Blunt, Cashier Knight and his assistant and Caswell. Janssen, the Sub Governor and Deputy Governor were also consulted but negotiations remained secret from most of the company. News from France was of fortunes being made investing in Law's bank, whose shares had risen sharply. Money was moving around Europe, and other flotations threatened to soak up capital (two insurance schemes in December 1719 each sought to raise £3 million). Plans were made for a new scheme to take over most of the unconsolidated national debt of Britain (£30,981,712) in exchange for company shares. Annuities were valued as a lump sum necessary to produce the annual income over the original term at an assumed interest of 5 per cent, which favoured those with shorter terms still to run. The government agreed to pay the same amount to the company for all the fixed-term repayable debt as it had been paying before, but after seven years the 5 per cent interest rate would fall to 4 per cent on the new annuity debt and also that assumed previously. After the first year, the company was to give the government £3 million in four quarterly instalments. New stock would be created at a face value equal to the debt, but the share price was still rising and sales of the remaining stock, i.e. the excess of the total market value of the stock over the amount of the debt, would be used to raise the government fee plus a profit for the company. The more the price rose in advance of conversion, the more the company would make. Before the scheme, payments were costing the government £1.5 million per year. In summary, the total government debt in 1719 was £50 million: • £18.3m was held by three large corporations: • £3.4m by the
Bank of England • £3.2m by the
British East India Company • £11.7m by the South Sea Company • Privately held redeemable debt amounted to £16.5m • £15m consisted of irredeemable annuities, long-fixed-term annuities of 72–87 years, and short annuities of 22 years remaining to expiry. The purpose of this conversion was similar to the old one, debt holders and annuitants might receive less return in total, but an illiquid investment was transformed into shares that could be readily traded. Shares backed by national debt were considered a safe investment and a convenient way to hold and move money, far easier and safer than metal coins. The only alternative safe asset, land, was much harder to sell and transfer of its ownership was legally much more complex. The government received a cash payment and lower interest on the debt and gained control over when the debt had to be repaid, which was not before seven years but then at its discretion. This avoided the risk that debt might become repayable when the government needed to borrow more, and could be forced into paying higher interest rates. The payment to the government was to be used to buy any debt not subscribed to the scheme, which although it helped the government, also helped the company by removing possibly competing securities from the market, including large holdings by the Bank of England.
Public announcement On 21 January the plan was presented to the board of the South Sea Company, and on 22 January
Chancellor of the Exchequer John Aislabie presented it to Parliament. The House was stunned into silence but on recovering, proposed that the Bank of England should be invited to make a better offer. The South Sea increased its cash payment to £3.5 million, while the Bank proposed to undertake the conversion with a payment of £5.5 million and a fixed conversion price of £170 per £100 face-value Bank stock. On 1 February, the company negotiators led by Blunt raised their offer to £4 million plus a proportion of £3.5 million depending on how much of the debt was converted. They also agreed that the interest rate would decrease after four years instead of seven, and agreed to sell on behalf of the government £1 million of Exchequer bills (formerly handled by the Bank). The House accepted the South Sea offer and Bank stock fell sharply. Perhaps the first sign of difficulty came when the South Sea Company announced that its Christmas 1719 dividend would be deferred for 12 months. The company embarked on a show of gratitude to its friends. Select individuals were sold a parcel of company stock at the current price. The transactions were recorded by Knight in the names of intermediaries, but no payments were received and no stock issued – the company had none to issue until the conversion of debt began. The individual received an option to sell his stock back to the company at any date at whatever market price might then apply. Shares went to the Craggs:
the Elder and
the Younger;
Lord Gower;
Lord Lansdowne; and four other MPs.
Lord Sunderland would gain £500 for every pound that stock rose; George I's mistress, their children and Countess Platen £120 per pound rise, Aislabie £200 per pound,
Lord Stanhope £600 per pound. Others invested money, including the
Richard Hampden the Treasurer to the Navy, who invested £25,000 of government money on his behalf. The proposal was accepted in a slightly altered form in April 1720. Crucial in this conversion was the proportion of holders of irredeemable annuities who could be tempted to convert their securities at a high price for the new shares. (Holders of redeemable debt had no other choice but to subscribe.) The South Sea Company could set the conversion price but could not diverge much from the market price of its shares. The company ultimately acquired 85 per cent of the redeemables and 80 per cent of the irredeemables.
Inflating the share price The company then set to talking up its stock with "the most extravagant rumours" of the value of its potential trade in the New World; this was followed by a wave of "speculating frenzy". The share price had risen from the time the scheme was proposed, from £128 in January 1720, to £175 in February, £330 in March and following the scheme's acceptance £550 at the end of May. What may have supported the company's high multiples (its
P/E ratio) was a fund of credit (known to the market) of £70 million available for commercial expansion which had been made available through substantial support, apparently, by Parliament and the King. Shares in the company were "sold" to politicians at the market price; rather than paying for the shares, these recipients simply held the shares, with the option of selling them back to the company at any time, receiving the increase in market price. This method, as well as winning over the heads of government, the King's mistress,
et al., had the advantage of binding their interests to the interests of the company, to secure profits, the stock needed to rise. By publicising the names of their elite stockholders, the company managed to clothe itself in an aura of legitimacy, which attracted and kept other buyers.
Bubble Act The South Sea Company was by no means the only company seeking to raise money from investors in 1720. A large number of other joint-stock companies, making extravagant (sometimes fraudulent) claims about foreign or other ventures or bizarre schemes, had been created. Others represented potentially sound, although novel, schemes, such as for founding insurance companies. These were nicknamed "Bubbles". Some of the companies had no legal basis, while others (such as the
Hollow Sword Blade Company, which acted as the South Sea Company's banker), used existing chartered companies for purposes different from those named at their creation. The York Buildings Company was set up to provide water to London, but was purchased by Case Billingsley who used it to purchase confiscated Jacobite estates in Scotland, which then formed the assets of an insurance company. On 22 February 1720, John Hungerford raised the question of bubble companies in the House of Commons, and persuaded the House to set up a committee, which he chaired, to investigate. He identified a number of companies which between them sought to raise £40 million in capital. The committee investigated the companies, establishing a principle that companies should not be operating outside the objects specified in their charters. A potential embarrassment for the South Sea was avoided when the question of the Hollow Sword Blade Company arose. Difficulty was avoided by packing the committee with MPs who were supporters of the South Sea, and voting down by 75 to 25 the proposal to investigate the Hollow Sword. (At this time, committees of the House were either 'Open' or 'secret'. A secret committee was one with a fixed set of members who could vote on its proceedings. By contrast, any MP could join in with an 'open' committee and vote on its proceedings.) Stanhope, who was a member of the committee, received £50,000 of the 'resaleable' South Sea stock from Sawbridge, a director of the Hollow Sword, at about this time. Hungerford had previously been expelled from the Commons for accepting a bribe. The passing of the act gave a boost to the South Sea Company, its shares leaping to £890 in early June. This peak encouraged people to sell; to counterbalance this the company's directors ordered their agents to buy, which succeeded in propping the price up at around £750.
Top reached The price of the stock went up over the course of a year from about £100 to almost £1,000 per share. Its success caused a national frenzy—
herd behaviour The price finally reached £1,000 in early August 1720, and the level of selling was such that the price started to fall, dropping back to £100 per share before the year was out. This triggered
bankruptcies amongst those who had bought on credit, and increased sales, including
short selling (i.e., selling borrowed shares in the hope of buying them back at a profit if the price fell). In August 1720, the first of the instalment payments of the first and second money subscriptions on new issues of South Sea stock were due. Earlier in the year John Blunt had come up with an idea to prop up the share price, the company would lend people money to buy its shares. As a result, many shareholders could not pay for their shares except by selling them. A scramble for liquidity appeared internationally as "bubbles" were also ending in Amsterdam and Paris. The collapse coincided with the fall of the
Mississippi Company of
John Law in France and the price of South Sea shares began to decline.
Recriminations By the end of September the stock had fallen to £150. Company failures now extended to
banks and
goldsmiths, as they could not collect loans made on the stock, and thousands of individuals were ruined, including many members of the upper class. With investors outraged,
Parliament was recalled in December and an investigation began. Reporting in 1721, it revealed widespread
fraud amongst the company directors and corruption in the Cabinet. Among those implicated were
John Aislabie (the Chancellor of the Exchequer), James Craggs the Elder (the
Postmaster General),
James Craggs the Younger (the
Southern Secretary), and even
Lord Stanhope and
Lord Sunderland (the heads of the Ministry). Craggs the Elder and Craggs the Younger died in disgrace; the remainder were
impeached for their corruption. The Commons found Aislabie guilty of the "most notorious, dangerous and infamous corruption" and he was imprisoned. The corruption around the South Sea bubble was the impetus for the writing and publication of
Cato's Letters which became an important work first for the
Radical Whigs and then into the
libertarian ideology of the
American Revolution. The new
First Lord of the Treasury,
Robert Walpole, restored public confidence in the financial system. Public opinion, as shaped by the many prominent men who lost money, demanded revenge. Walpole supervised the process, which removed all 33 of the company directors and stripped them of, on average, 82 per cent of their wealth. The money went to the victims and the stock of the South Sea Company was divided between the Bank of England and the East India Company. Walpole made sure that King George and his mistresses were protected, and by a margin of three votes he managed to save several key government officials from impeachment. In the process, Walpole won plaudits as the saviour of the financial system while establishing himself as the dominant figure in British politics; historians credit him for rescuing the Whig government and the Hanoverian dynasty from disgrace.
Quotations prompted by the collapse Joseph Spence wrote that
Lord Radnor reported to him "When Sir
Isaac Newton was asked about the continuance of the rising of South Sea stock ... He answered 'that he could not calculate the madness of people'". He is also quoted, "I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men". Newton owned nearly £22,000 in South Sea stock in 1722, but it is not known how much he lost, if anything. There are numerous sources stating he lost up to £20,000 (equivalent to £ in ). == A trading company ==