Theory of change

Origins The concept of theories of change emerged from the field of program theory and program evaluation in the mid 1990s as a new way of analyzing the theories motivating programs and initiatives working for social and political change. Its earlier origins can be traced to Peter Drucker's articulation of Management by Objectives, popularized in his 1954 book The Practice of Management. Management by Objectives requires identifying higher-order Goals, and lower-order Objectives which, if achieved, are expected to result in the Goals being achieved. Theory of Change extends beyond Goals (commonly named Outcomes in Theory of Change terminology) and Objectives to include Impact – the anticipated result of achieving stated goals. Theory of Change is focused not just on generating knowledge about whether a program is effective, but also on explaining what methods it uses to be effective. Theory of Change as a concept has strong roots in a number of disciplines, including environmental and organizational psychology, but has also increasingly been connected to sociology and political science. Within industrial-organizational psychology, Austin and Bartunek have noted that approaches to organizational development are frequently based on more or less explicit assumptions about 1) the processes through which organizations change, and 2) the interventions needed to effect change. Development in evaluation practice Within evaluation practice, Theory of Change emerged in the 1990s at the Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change as a means to model and evaluate comprehensive community initiatives. Notable methodologists, such as Huey-tsyh Chen, Peter Rossi, Michael Quinn Patton, Heléne Clark, Carol Taylor Fitz-Gibbon, and Carol Weiss, had been thinking about how to apply program theories to evaluation since the 1970s. The Roundtable's early work focused on working through the challenges of evaluating complex community initiatives. This work culminated in a 1995 publication, 'New Approaches to Evaluating Comprehensive Community Initiatives'. and later of Theory of Change Online software. Growing popularity In the 2010s, interest increased with some reviews commissioned by Comic Relief in the UK, the Department for International Development in the UK, the Asia Foundation and Oxfam Australia to name a few. The explosion of knowledge of the term, and demand for "theories", led to the formation in 2013 of the first non-profit dedicated to promoting and clarifying standards for Theory of Change. The Center for Theory of Change free of charge. The use of Theory of Change in planning and evaluation has increased among philanthropies, government agencies, development organizations, universities, international NGOs, the UN, and many other major organizations in both developed and developing countries. This has led to new areas of work, such as linking the Theory of Change approach to systems thinking and complexity. Change processes are no longer seen as linear, but as having many feedback loops that need to be understood. Consequently, Theory of Change is strengthening monitoring, evaluation and learning. They are also helping to understand and assess impact in hard to measure areas, such as governance, capacity strengthening and institutional development. Innovations continue to emerge. Challenges Despite the growing ubiquity of Theory of Change, especially in the development arena, understanding of the approach and the methods necessary to implement it effectively are not uniform. In fact, there is evidence of some confusion about what the term 'Theory of Change' actually means; in some cases, what some program developers describe as a Theory of Change is, in essence, simply a log frame, strategic plan or another approach that does not encompass the complexity of the Theory of Change approach. There is also inconsistent use of other common Theory of Change terminology (e.g., outputs, outcomes, impacts, etc.), which confounds effective Theory of Change design, evaluation, and learning. == Methodology ==

Basic structure A Theory of Change is a high order, or macro, If-Then statement: If this is done, Then these are the anticipated results. The outcomes pathway is a set of needed conditions relevant to a given field of action, which are placed diagrammatically in logical relationship to one another and connected with arrows that posit causality. Outcomes along the pathway are also preconditions to outcomes above them. Thus, early outcomes must be in place for intermediate outcomes to be achieved; intermediate outcomes must be in place for the next set of outcomes to be achieved; and so on. An outcomes pathway therefore represents the change logic and its underlying set of assumptions, which are spelled out in the rationales given for why specific connections exist between outcomes and in the theory narrative. Quality control criteria In the early days of Theory of Change, Anne Kubisch and others established three quality control criteria. These are: ; Plausibility : Plausibility refers to the logic of the outcomes' pathway. Does it make sense? Are the outcomes in the right order? Are the preconditions each necessary and collectively sufficient to reach the long-term outcomes and ultimate impact? Are there gaps in the logic? ; Feasibility : Feasibility refers to whether the initiative can realistically achieve its long-term outcomes and impact. Does the organization have adequate resources? Does it need partners? Does the scope, expectations, or timeline of the theory need adjustment? ; Testability : Testability refers chiefly to the indicators: Are they solid and measurable? Will they yield sufficient information to evaluate the success of the initiative? Will they be convincing to necessary audiences? In addition to these three basic quality control criteria, ActKnowledge Applying the model An important first step in the process is identifying a workable long-term goal and long-term outcomes. The long-term goal should be something the initiative can realistically achieve and that everyone involved understands. A trained external facilitator is best to lead the group to consensus and specificity in this process. Once a long-term goal is identified, the group then considers: "What conditions must be in place for us to reach the goal?" Any such necessary conditions should be shown as outcomes on the Theory of Change pathway, underneath the long-term outcome. These outcomes act as preconditions to the long-term outcome. The process of identifying preconditions continues, drilling down the pathway by posing fundamental questions such as: "What has to be in place for this outcome to be achieved?" and "Are these preconditions sufficient for the outcome to be achieved?" In these sessions, participants may use markers, sticky notes, and chart paper to identify and organize outcomes, surface assumptions, develop indicators, and so on. The messy group work is then usually captured by the facilitator in digital form, through which the content can be expanded, edited, printed, shared, and otherwise managed as the theory continues to be developed. Measuring change The ultimate success of any Theory of Change lies in its ability to demonstrate progress on the achievement of outcomes. Evidence of success confirms the theory and indicates that the initiative is effective. Therefore, the outcomes in a Theory of Change must be coupled with indicators that guide and facilitate measurement. Indicators may be said to operationalize the outcomes – that is, they make the outcomes understandable in concrete, observable and measurable terms. The relationship of indicator to outcome can be confusing and may be clarified with this simple formula: "I'll know [outcome reached] when I see [indicator]." For example, "I'll know that teenagers in the program understand the prenatal nutrition and health guidelines when I see program participants identifying foods that are good sources of nutrition." A graduated set of indicators can be used to measure and assess the extent to which an outcome has been realized. Ideally, every outcome on the outcomes pathway (below the dashed accountability ceiling) should have an indicator, but available resources often make that difficult to do. Many groups want to designate priority outcomes – that is, outcomes they know they need to measure if the theory is going to hold. These are the outcomes that must be operationalized (that is, made measurable by one or more indicators.) At a minimum, every outcome for which initial interventions will be designed should have at least one indicator. == Comparison with other models ==

Practitioners have developed logic models and logical frameworks as strategies and tools to plan and evaluate social change programs. While these models well articulate the goals and resources of an initiative or organization, they give less focus to the complex social, economic, political and institutional processes that underlie social and societal change. Thus, while logic models and logframes have developed an Implementation Theory behind their work, they can lack an underlying Theory of Change. Theory of Change also contrasts with logic models and logframes by beginning with a participatory process to clearly define desired outcomes and to air and challenge one another's assumptions. Theory of Change can support collective visioning, foster a shared understanding between stakeholders, and bridge thought-styles and different ways of knowing. Theory of Change begins by first working out program goals or desired impact and working backwards on outcome pathways, rather than engaging in conventional forward oriented "so-that" reasoning. As an example of "so-that" reasoning: a grantee decides to increase media coverage on the lack of health insurance among children so that public awareness increases so that policymakers increase their knowledge and interest so that policies change so that more children have health insurance. In Theory of Change, by contrast, the group begins not with its intervention but with its long-term goal and outcomes and then works backward (in time) toward the earliest changes that need to occur. Only when the pathway has been developed is it time to consider which interventions will best produce the outcomes in the pathway. Many organizations, including the Rockefeller Foundation and the United States Agency for International Development, have used a Results Framework and companion Scorecard as management tools. The Results Framework is complementary and adaptable to a Theory of Change-based monitoring and evaluation system. The framework gives the appearance of being derived from a well-thought-out conceptual model, even if the conceptual model is lacking. The limitations of the Results Frameworks is that they do not show causal connections between conditions that need to change in order to meet the ultimate goals. The added value of Theory of Change lies in revealing the conceptual model, including the causal relationships between and among outcomes, the relationships of activities to outcomes, and of outcomes to indicators. Overall, having a Theory of Change helps make explicit the assumptions upon which the Results Framework is based. == Applications ==

ToC in International Development and argues that for funders, "a theory of change helps [them] to articulate the assumptions that underpin" their approach to funding. • Women for Women International • Oxfam • Greenpeace • Alliance for Financial Inclusion • California Endowment • Global Environment Facility, GEF Research organizations and programs • CGIAR • Sustainability Research Effectiveness Program ToC in Climate Organizations • The Climate Center ToC in community schools (U. S.) • Children's Aid Society • Communities In Schools (Va.) • Netter Center for Community Partnerships (Philadelphia) • Cincinnati Community Learning Centers • Hartford (Conn.) Community Schools • Paterson (N. J.) Community Schools • United Federation of Teachers (New York City) • Beacon Schools (New York City) ToC in philanthropy • Annie E. Casey Foundation • Kellogg Foundation • Lumina Foundation for Education == Application in Research Planning, Adaptive Management, and Evaluation ==

Theory of Change (ToC) is a multi-purpose tool that can be applied for the purpose of planning, managing, monitoring, and evaluating research, especially change-oriented research (e.g., research-for-development, transdisciplinary research, sustainability science). As in other applications, a research ToC describes the causal relationships between a research project or program and its intended results (i.e., outputs, outcomes, and impacts), framed as a set of testable hypotheses about how and why research contributes to change. ToC for research planning and design As an ex ante planning tool, Theory of Change can make research design and implementation more realistic and relevant by facilitating critical reflection on the role of research in a change process. It can also make research more participatory, by identifying and engaging key stakeholders of the research, and enabling co-ownership of the research process and the research results (e.g., findings). Theory of Change can accompany or be embedded within a research proposal. ToC for adaptive management of research As a monitoring tool, a Theory of Change helps identify useful indicators to assess progress and can facilitate adaptive management. It does this by stimulating learning about what strategies work in the specific research context, and where additional attention and resources need to be directed in order to achieve intended outcomes. This can inform adjustments to planned research activities, and also take advantage of unexpected opportunities by giving users a framework to determine whether an opportunity does or does not align with the purpose and objectives of the research project or program. ToC for research evaluation Theory of Change serves as the main analytical framework in theory-based research evaluation. A Theory of Change also helps identify what data are necessary to test whether the change happened as hypothesized. As an ex post evaluation tool, evaluators can assess the actual achievements of research projects or programs against expected outcomes, increasing research transparency and accountability to results. == Innovations ==

New horizons of theory of change There are two areas of work that, although not coordinated with Theory of Change, offer much to think about in making Theory of Change more focused and effective: 1. The Annie E. Casey Foundation proposes mapping an organization's social change work along three criteria: Impact, Influence, Leverage. • The impact of your work is its program outcomes • Your influence is how much other actors change as a result of your work • Your leverage is how much investment others put into your model. To date, Theory of Change has not distinguished impact, influence, and leverage as types of outcomes, but it may be useful to do so as a way of focusing the Theory of Change on measurable achievements. Particularly, when using Theory of Change to guide monitoring and evaluation, the Casey rubric helps focus the group's attention on outcomes, which could, if achieved, be convincingly attributed to the group's work. Other than direct program-related outcomes (impact), the Theory would anticipate outcomes in influence and outcomes in leverage. This approach could thereby help to avoid mapping outcomes involving broad shifts in behavior and values among whole populations, which are easy to think about, but are very difficult to monitor and to attribute to any one program. 2. Another refinement, which directly addresses this problem of attribution, comes from Outcome mapping. This process distinguishes changes in state from changes in behavior, changes in "state" being just those broad shifts in economic conditions, policy, politics, institutional behavior, and so on, among whole populations (e.g., cities, regions, countries, industries, economic sectors, etc.). Measuring changes in state can exceed the capacity of any one actor's monitoring capabilities. Governments collect data on changes in state but, of course, the data may not be calibrated to measure the kinds of change anticipated in any one Theory of Change. Changes in state are also, as stated above, difficult to attribute to any one source. In contrast, changes in behavior are much easier to monitor, and more easily related to a group's own work. The Outcomes Mapping focus on changes in behavior would tend to direct a Theory of Change toward outcomes like this, which are outcomes the change agent cares most about and which it can relatively easily monitor and evaluate. There would be proportionately less attention to outcomes such as "every child is within five minutes walk of a playground" or "residents are healthy". Such "changes in state" are more difficult to monitor and to attribute with certainty. Theory of change and "being strategic" Does Theory of Change frustrate or complement strategic thinking? This is an ongoing and important discussion, especially as there is an increasing emphasis on and demand for strategy as grounded, flexible, and opportunity-driven. Some perspectives understand ToC as a fixed model that gets in the way of effective work and useful evaluation. However, Patrizi notes that ToC is only at odds with strategic behavior if an organization treats their ToC like any other fixed plan. As Patrizi writes: "Once assumptions [in a theory of change] are laid out, 1) foundations don't actually test those assumptions, and 2) they don't see using the model as a continuous process. It is, like, 'Well, we did our ToC and now we are done'. == See also ==