Strauss's prediction did not come true, and over time it became a target of those pointing to the industry's record of overpromising and underdelivering — which is now largely realized to have been caused by the transition from the AEC position as a champion of nuclear power to the NRC position of a regulator focused exclusively on regulation; only three reactors have been commissioned in the United States since that transition. In 1980, the
Atomic Industrial Forum wrote an article quoting his son, Lewis H. Strauss, claiming that he was talking about not
nuclear fission but
nuclear fusion. He claimed his father was not specific about this in the speech because the AEC's
Project Sherwood was still classified at the time, so he was not allowed to refer to this work directly. Since that time, this claim has been widely repeated, including in 2003 comments by Donald Hintz, chairman of the
Nuclear Energy Institute. To support that argument, Strauss and biographer Pfau point to this statement: "industry would have electrical power from atomic furnaces in five to fifteen years." It was claimed that the timeline implies that Strauss was referring to fusion, not fission. Although it is not a direct quote, this version of the statement appeared in the
New York Times overview of the speech the next day. The statement in question is originally: Dr. Lawrence Hafstad, whom all of you surely know, happens to be speaking, today, in Brussels before the Congress of Industrial Chemistry. He heads the Reactor Development Division of the Atomic Energy Commission. Therefore, he expects to be asked, "How soon will you have industrial atomic electric power in the United States?" His answer is "from 5 to 15 years depending on the vigor of the development effort." Hafstad was in charge of the development of fission reactors by the AEC, and this statement immediately precedes the "too cheap to meter" statement. The same is true of his statements on
Meet the Press, which in direct reply to a question about fission. The speech as a whole contains large sections about the development of fission power and the difficulties that the Commission was having communicating this fact. He wryly notes receiving letters addressed to the "Atomic Bomb Commission" and then quotes a study that demonstrates the public is largely ignorant of the development of atomic power. He goes on to briefly recount the development of fission, noting a letter from
Leo Szilard of sixteen years earlier where he speaks of the possibility of a
chain reaction. A later examination of the topic concluded: "there is no evidence in Strauss's papers at the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library to indicate fusion was the hidden subject of his speech." Strauss viewed hydrogen fusion as the ultimate power source and was eager to develop the technology as quickly as possible and urged the Project Sherwood researchers to make rapid progress, even suggesting a million-dollar prize to the individual or team that succeeded first. However Strauss was not optimistic about the rapid commercialization of fusion power. In August 1955 after fusion research was made public, he cautioned that "there has been nothing in the nature of breakthroughs that would warrant anyone assuming that this [fusion power] was anything except a very long range—and I would accent the word 'very'—prospect." ==Other uses==