2026 in climate change

==Measurements and statistics==

20251231 NASA Vital Signs of the Planet 2025.png |"Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA at the end of 2025 / beginning of 2026 '' article estimated future damages from past emissions to be at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. • 9 January: a report published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences said that ocean heat content in 2025 had reached a new record for nine consecutive years. • 9 January (reported): an Oxfam report concluded that the richest 1% exhausted their annual carbon budget in ten days. (Carbon budget is the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted while keeping the planet within 1.5 °C of global warming.) • 22 January: Ember's European Electricity Review 2026 reported that in 2025, wind and solar energy provided 30% of EU electricity, surpassing fossil power (29%) for the first time, and generating more power than fossil sources in 14 of 27 EU countries. • 6 March: a study published in Geophysical Research Letters removed estimated influence of three natural variability factors and concluded with over 98% confidence that global warming from 2015 to 2025 accelerated more than during any previous decade. • 6 March: a study published in Science Advances concluded that compound drought-heatwave events (CDHEs) have increased nearly eightfold since the early 2000s, from 1.6 to 13.1% per degree Celsius, with considerable regional variation. • 10 March: a study published in Environmental Research: Health reported extensive statistics on present and projected worsening of heat- and humidity-related livability limitations. • 25 March: a study published in Nature estimated that, from 1990 through 2020, carbon dioxide emissions in the US caused $10.2 trillion in cumulative damages by 2020, with about 30% occurring within the US itself. • 17 April: based on climate-driven weakening of day-night weather constraints, a study published in Science Advances estimated that from 1975 to 2024, annual potential burning hours for wildfires in North America rose 36%. • 21 April: Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 said that, in 2025, clean power growth exceeded the rise in overall global electricity demand (fossil fuel generation declining), and that renewables overtook coal power. ==Natural events and phenomena==

• 4 February: a study published in Science Advances concluded that wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was responsible for ~24,100 all-cause deaths per year in the contiguous United States. • 12 February: a study published in Nature Geoscience estimated that the contribution associated with a La Niña-to-El Niño transition explains about 75% of the 2022-2023 extreme increase in Earth's energy uptake, contributing to the record global surface temperatures and widespread climate extremes observed in 2023–2024. • 25 February: a study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution stated that long-term global warming was associated with an annual fish biomass decline of up to 19.8% between 1993 and 2021 in major Northern Hemisphere basins. • 25 February: a study published in PLOS One reported that between 1794 and 2024, there was an average absolute shift in flowering of tropical plants of 2.04 days per decade (range: 0.037–14.10), comparable to changes seen in temperate, boreal and alpine desert plants, and severe enough to cause interspecific misalignment between pollinators and seed dispersers. • 9 March: a study published in Atmospheric Science Letters estimated that, in the 3 May 2025 hailstorm in Western Europe, a 30% increase in probability of larger hail stones and a increase in hailstone size could be attributed to climate change. • 10 March: a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research considered continental-ocean mass redistribution due to melting of polar ice sheets and global glaciers and changes in Earth's hydrology, and said that 21st century climate change may be increasing the length of Earth's days at a rate among the highest in 3.6million years. • March: the World Meteorological Organization's State of the Global Climate 2025 introduced a new indicator of the Earth's energy balance and concluded that Earth’s energy budget is more out of balance than at any previous time in the observational record. • 25 March: a study published in Nature concluded that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate (2°C) global warming. • 26 March: a study published in Nature Communications concluded that environmental heat stress thresholds may be cooler and drier than previously thought, more specifically, that "non-survivable conditions" are occurring during present-day heat events that are below the six-hour 35°C wet-bulb temperature threshold that currently defines such conditions. • 8 April: a study published in Science Advances concluded that over the past 20 years, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has weakened at four different latitudes along the western boundary of the North Atlantic Ocean, that boundary thought to constitute the "canary in a coal mine" for the tendency of the AMOC as a whole. • 10 April: NOAA's "Final La Niña Advisory" concluded that La Niña conditions had transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which was expected to persist through Northern Hemisphere summer. • 15 April: a study published in Science Advances estimated a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) of 51±8%—a weakening ~60% stronger than suggested by multimodel mean estimates. • 16 April (reported): an editorial published in Nature noted that, in 2025, mosquitos were found in Iceland for the first time, and were said to be "a warning that the Arctic lacks a system for monitoring arthropods and anticipating biological risks before they escalate". ==Actions, and goal statements==

Science and technology • January (reported): a Chinese company launched the first megawatt-level airborne wind turbine—a 60x40x40m (197x131x131ft) helium-filled aerostat—providing electricity through a tether cable from above the ground. • 14 January: at Concordia Station, Antarctica, the Ice Memory Foundation inaugurated a global repository of mountain ice cores, to ensure that future generations will be able to study past climate conditions. • 15 January: a study published in Nature Climate Change estimated the 2020 ocean-based social cost of carbon (SCC) to be almost double that of prior SCC estimates that didn't consider ocean-related impacts. • 12 February: anomalous increases in tropical sea surface temperatures have caused NOAA to revise the threshold distinguishing La Niña and El Niño (ENSO) events from each other. • 4 March: a study published in Nature concluded that sea level measurements that have been based on geoid models rather than actual sea level measurements have underestimated the degree of sea level rise. • 24 April: a study published in Science Advances concluded that artificial closure of the Bering Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the time of closure. Political, economic, legal, and cultural actions • 7 January: US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would be withdrawing from the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and 65 other international organizations—alleging the treaties "no longer serve American interests". The UNFCC was unanimously ratified by the U.S. Senate in 1992 and signed by then President George H. W. Bush. • 8 January: US President Donald Trump's administration announced that the country would be withdrawing from the Green Climate Fund, which since 2010 has provided funds to help poorer nations deal with the effects of climate change. • 27 January: the United States completed its second formal withdrawal from the 2015 Paris agreement—one year after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to begin the withdrawal process. • 28 January: The Hague District Court ruled that the Dutch government had discriminated against the inhabitants of the Caribbean island of Bonaire, by not taking timely and appropriate measures to protect them against the consequences of climate change. The court ordered the Dutch government to set legally binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, as well as making a climate adaptation plan for Bonaire. • 30 January: a US federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's Department of Energy violated the law with its "Climate Working Group" of five handpicked climate change skeptics who reject the scientific consensus on climate change. • 6 February: the US Federal Judicial Center informed Republican attorneys general that the climate science chapter from the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence—relied on by federal judges in complex cases involving science—had been removed, per the AGs' urging eight days earlier. • 12 February: the US Environmental Protection Agency formally rescinded the Endangerment Finding, which had enabled US federal government regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. On 19 March, 24 states filed a Petition for review of the EPA's action. • 27 April: US President Donald Trump fired all 22 members of the National Science Board, which was established in 1950 to guide thethe National Science Foundation and to advise the president and Congress on policies about science and engineering. Mitigation goal statements • 7 April: Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C, published by Resources for the Future, concluded that achieving the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C is no longer plausible, and that limiting the rise to 2°C will be "extremely challenging" and "requires additional policy effort". Adaptation goal statements ==Consensus==

• 8 January: a summary of surveys of 70,337 participants in 17 countries, published in Nature Sustainability, reported that, for both extreme weather-related hazards and general climate change-related risks, survey participants perceived their own personal risks were lower than other people's risks. ==Projections==

• 28 January: a study published in Nature forecast that climate change could lead to 123 million additional malaria cases and 532,000 additional deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050 under current malaria control levels. ==Significant publications==

• • • (Food Security Index ratings for 162 countries under different degrees of global warming) • • ==See also==