Market2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Company Profile

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded Republican incumbent senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in 2022 and one of the two Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Republican primary
and future U.S. Senator David McCormick narrowly lost the primary, placing second. finished third in the primary. Carla Sands finished fourth in the primary. finished fifth in the primary. Campaign Early campaign In October 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey decided not to run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector. By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners. However, Parnell's campaign faced a large scandal in November 2021, after his ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell had strangled and spat on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion". Parnell denied the allegations under oath. On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the couple's children and Parnell suspended his campaign. Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020. The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick, a businessman, into the race prompted attacks for McCormick's past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies. Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote. Despite this, political commentators largely considered Oz and McCormick to be the frontrunners, with the other candidates trailing them. The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing Oz of harboring dual loyalties. Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship. Former president Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters. Oz frequently highlighted this endorsement, it becoming one of his major talking points during the campaign. Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam." Candidates NomineeMehmet Oz, host of The Dr. Oz Show and former cardiologist • Jeff Bartos, businessman, philanthropist and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018Carla Sands, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021) • John Eichenberg, truck driver • Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate • Ron Johnson, former Fredonia borough councilor • Max Richardson • Martin Rosenfeld, Elk County deputy sheriff and treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party • David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner WithdrewSean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for in 2020 (endorsed McCormick) • Craig Snyder, former chief of staff to U.S. Senator Arlen SpecterEverett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and candidate for in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (ran as an independent) DeclinedKenneth Braithwaite, U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2020–2021), U.S. Ambassador to Norway (2018–2020), and former advisor to U.S. Senator Arlen SpecterMike Kelly, U.S. representative for PA-16; formerly (2011–present) (endorsed Parnell) • Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for Policy at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2019–2021), and candidate for governor in 2018Keith Rothfus, U.S. representative for (2013–2019) • Kiron Skinner, Taube Professor of International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University and former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department (2018–2019) • Pat Toomey, incumbent U.S. senator • Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump (endorsed Parnell) Debates and forums Endorsements Polling Graphical summary Results Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor. A mandatory recount then began. With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes. A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid. On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount. ==Democratic primary==
Democratic primary
finished second in the primary. finished third in the primary. borough councilor Alexandra Khalil finished fourth in the primary. Campaign The first two major Democratic candidates were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta. Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics. U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat, entered the race on August 6, 2021. As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle. On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region. which spent the entirety of its funds in support of Lamb's campaign. Lamb worked closely with the Super PAC, and participated in donor calls it arranged. The Philadelphia Inquirer commented that Fetterman had never actually described himself that way, the ABC affiliate in Philadelphia stopped broadcasting the ad, and Senator Elizabeth Warren called on Lamb to disavow it. Candidates NomineeJohn Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–2023), former mayor of Braddock (2005–2019) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 Eliminated in primaryMalcolm Kenyatta, state representative for the 181st district (2019–present) • Larry Johnson, attorney • Alan Shank, retail worker • Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker • Lew Tapera, retail worker WithdrewVal Arkoosh, member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2014–2023) and physician • Kevin Baumlin, chief of Emergency and Urgent Care Services at Pennsylvania Hospital • John McGuigan, former president of the Norristown Municipal Council (1994–1997) • Eric Orts, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (endorsed Kenyatta)Sharif Street, state senator for the 3rd district (2017–present), vice chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, son of former mayor of Philadelphia John Street (endorsed Lamb) DeclinedBrendan Boyle, U.S. representative for ; formerly (2015–present) • Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative for PA-04 (2019–present) (ran for re-election)Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania Auditor General (2013–2021) and nominee for in 2020Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative for (2019–present) (ran for re-election)Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–2024) (endorsed Lamb)Joe Sestak, U.S. representative for (2007–2011), former Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for president in 2020Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–2023) (ran for Governor)Joe Torsella, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2017–2021) • Susan Wild, U.S. representative for ; formerly (2018–2025) (ran for re-election) Debates Endorsements Polling Graphical summary Results Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in the Delaware Valley region of eastern Pennsylvania, where the majority of Democratic voters were located, while in contrast Fetterman's position as lieutenant governor gave him statewide name recognition. Lamb was often compared with conservative Democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, whom Fetterman criticized harshly. However, Lamb also criticized the Senators and said that he would vote in favor of eliminating the filibuster in contrast to them. In addition, the far more contested Republican primary had consumed media attention that Lamb might have otherwise used to gain more name recognition. Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed". ==Libertarian convention==
Libertarian convention
The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1. Candidates Nominee • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, and candidate for president in 2020 Withdrew • Steve Scheetz, powder coater and former chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party (2013–2015, 2019–2021) ==Green convention==
Green convention
The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1. ==Independents and other parties==
Independents and other parties
Candidates Qualified for ballot • Dan Wassmer (Keystone nominee), lawyer and Libertarian nominee for attorney general in 2020 (originally ran as a Republican) • Quincy Magee, inspector of elections for Philadelphia's 44th ward WithdrewEverett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and Republican candidate for in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (originally ran as a Republican, endorsed Fetterman) ==General election==
General election
Campaign Fetterman's campaign framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman also flew banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as "trolling" his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame. In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians "care much more about what I stand for than where I'm from". Oz's campaign criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and made an issue of Fetterman's health. In September, Oz published his medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate. Oz's campaign also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking. Fetterman's refusal to debate Oz until late October was criticized by Oz's campaign. Fetterman attributed the delay in debating to lingering issues from his stroke and his team criticized debate concessions from Oz's team for allegedly mocking Fetterman's stroke recovery. A single debate was held on October 25. Crudités video On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner's Warehouse supermarket went viral. In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden. The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz's usage of the French term "crudités", his choice of items, and several factual errors; Fetterman himself replied saying that Pennsylvanians refer to crudités as "veggie trays". Oz's choice of a raw head of broccoli, asparagus, and multiple pounds of carrots, with guacamole and salsa, was criticized as wrong by some. Others expressed confusion at Oz's statement that the $20 cost of the vegetables and dips "doesn't even include the tequila", as tequila is not a traditional accompaniment to crudités and liquor is not sold in grocery stores in Pennsylvania. The number of internet searches for crudités dramatically increased in the aftermath of the video's circulation. Oz appearing to confuse the Redner's and Wegmans supermarket chains led to the name "Wegner's" trending on Twitter and a parody Twitter account called "Wegner's Groceries" gaining popularity. When asked if the video made him unrelatable to voters, Oz emphasized he helped others throughout his career and would continue to help if elected. Debate In the October 25 debate, a special arrangement of transcription monitors was put in place to assist Fetterman with his auditory processing issue. According to the Associated Press, Fetterman "struggled at times to explain his positions and often spoke haltingly", with Fetterman facing issues completing sentences and frequently pausing after questions were asked. Oz was described as being "more at home on the debate stage" and presented himself as a moderate Republican, and did not reference Fetterman's health condition. Independent health experts said that Fetterman was recovering "remarkably well". Fetterman particularly struggled answering a question regarding his previous opposition to fracking by stating he always supported fracking, while Oz answered a question on abortion by saying that the federal government should have no role in states' abortion decisions, instead leaving abortion decisions to "women, doctors, [and] local political leaders". According to Politico and The Guardian, Fetterman "struggled" during the debate, and some Democrats questioned why he chose to debate at all. After the debate, the Fetterman campaign claimed that the closed captioning system provided by Nexstar Media Group gave incorrect and slow captions. Nexstar denied the claims, arguing the captioning "worked as expected" and that the Fetterman team had had the opportunity for two rehearsals with the equipment and opted to only do one. Predictions Debates Post-primary endorsements {{Endorsements box Executive branch officialsDavid Bernhardt, U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2019–2021) • David Friedman, U.S. Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021) • Richard Grenell, Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021), U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), Acting Director of National Intelligence (2020) • Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017) • Steven Law, United States Deputy Secretary of Labor (2003–2007) • David McCormick, Under Secretary of the Treasury (2007–2009), Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security (2005–2006), 2022 Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania • Tom Ridge, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2003–2005), United States Homeland Security Advisor (2001–2003), Governor of Pennsylvania (1995–2001) • Wilbur Ross, U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2017–2021) • Carla Sands, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021), 2022 Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania • Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005) • Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019) U.S. SenatorsSusan Collins, Maine (1997–present) • Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present) • Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (2019–present) • Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present) • Mitch McConnell, Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–2025), Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021) • Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present) • Newt Gingrich, Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979-1999), Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) • John Joyce, (2019–present) • Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) • Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present) State senatorsLisa Baker, 20th district (2007–present) • Cris Dush, 25th district (2020–present) • Mike Regan, 31st district (2017–2024) • Holly Schepisi, New Jersey state senator from the 39th district (2021–present) • Judy Ward, 30th district (2019–present) State representativesCarrie DelRosso, 33rd district (2021–2022) • Torren Ecker, 193rd district (2019–present) • Greg Rothman, 87th district (2015–2022) • Justin Taylor, Mayor of Carbondale, Pennsylvania (2003–2024) (Democrat) Party officialsThomas O. Hicks Jr., Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee (2019–2023) • Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the Republican National Committee (2017–2024) • Steve Wynn, Finance Chair of the Republican National Committee (2017–2018) • Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #91National Council of Prison LocalsPhiladelphia Firefighters' and Paramedics' Union Local 22 OrganizationsAmerican CrossroadsThe Conservative Caucus • Huck PAC • Log Cabin RepublicansNational Federation of Independent BusinessNational Republican Senatorial CommitteeNRA – Political Victory FundRepublican Jewish CoalitionSusan B. Anthony Pro-Life AmericaUnited States Chamber of Commerce Newspapers and other mediaPittsburgh Post-Gazette IndividualsKathy Barnette, political commentator and candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania in 2022 • Jeff Bartos, 2018 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, 2022 Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania • Shmuley Boteach, Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host • Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life AmericaKimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality • Gene Marks, columnist Executive Branch officialsKamala Harris, 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025) • Patrick Murphy, U.S. Secretary of the Army (2016) and former U.S. Representative for (2007–2011) Statewide officialsJosh Shapiro, Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023) and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee U.S. SenatorsSherrod Brown, Ohio (2007–2025) • Bob Casey Jr., Pennsylvania (2007–2025) • Chris Coons, Delaware (2010–present) • Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota (2007–present) • Ben Nelson, Nebraska (2001–2013) • Gary Peters, Michigan (2015–present) • Bernie Sanders, Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts (2013–present) U.S. RepresentativesBrendan Boyle, ; formerly (2015–present) • Bob Brady, (1998–2019), Chair of the Democratic Party of Philadelphia (1986–present) • Matt Cartwright, PA-08 (2013–2025) • Madeleine Dean, PA-04 (2019–present) • Dwight Evans, (2019–present) • Gabby Giffords, (2007–2012) • Chrissy Houlahan, (2019–present) • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, (2019–present) • Mary Gay Scanlon, (2019–present) and (2018–2019) • Patty Kim, state representative from the 103rd district (2013–2025) the race was one of the first signs of the coming Democratic overperformance relative to the final polls in the midterms writ large. Oz underperformed former Republican president Donald Trump's performance in the 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania by 3.7 percentage points, while overperforming Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the concurrent gubernatorial race by 10 percentage points. As a result of this election, Democrats would be elected to both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947, and from this seat since 1962. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Fetterman won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Oz's defeat. By county Counties that flipped from Republican to DemocraticBucks (largest municipality: Bensalem) • Centre (largest municipality: State College) • Chester (largest municipality: West Chester) • Dauphin (largest municipality: Harrisburg) • Erie (largest municipality: Erie) • Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem) By congressional district Fetterman won ten of 17 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. Voter demographics Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,660 voters in person as well as by phone. ==See also==
tickerdossier.comtickerdossier.substack.com