Wagner Group rebellion

Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Ulyanovsk on 13 June 2023 In the early 1990s, Prigozhin, having served a decade in prison before embarking on an entrepreneurial career, emerged as a prominent figure in Saint Petersburg's business life, gaining recognition for a string of highly regarded restaurants. This connection facilitated a financial association with Putin, who was actively engaged in municipal politics during that period. Prigozhin gradually evolved into a trusted and intimate confidant of Putin, forging a close personal bond. In 2014, Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company. Despite the legal prohibition of private military companies in Russia, Wagner operated unimpeded with implicit endorsement Many analysts have said the government employed Wagner services to allow for plausible deniability and obscure the actual toll in terms of casualties and financial costs of Russia's foreign interventions. Serving as a tool of Russian foreign and military policy, Wagner emerged as a formidable combat force in various regions, including the Donbas conflict. It played a significant role during Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war, providing support to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and has participated in conflicts in Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic. Wagner has garnered infamy due to its ruthless methods and participation in war crimes throughout Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, perpetrating atrocities with impunity. The group maintains close ties with multiple African governments, enjoying considerable autonomy to exploit the natural resources of these nations in return for supporting local forces in their battle against anti-government rebels. Wagner's economic endeavors in Africa witnessed an upward trajectory even amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Reports from the independent Russian news outlet Meduza indicated that this development would undermine Prigozhin's hold over Wagner and jeopardize the group's profitable operations in Africa. Prigozhin unsuccessfully attempted to circumvent the order for Wagner's subordination while intensifying his criticism of the MoD. Planning the rebellion U.S. intelligence agencies observed a gradual accumulation of Wagner forces near the Russian border and obtained solid evidence of the imminent rebellion before 21 June. Anonymous U.S. officials later disclosed to The New York Times that Army General Sergey Surovikin had prior knowledge of the planned rebellion. and was perceived to have close ties to Prigozhin. Additionally, there were indications that other generals may have lent their support to the uprising. U.S. officials asserted that Prigozhin would not have instigated the rebellion unless he harbored the belief that he had backing from specific sectors within the Russian power structure. According to anonymous accounts conveyed by Meduza, it's possible that the security services "didn't have the nerve to tell the president that something's up with Prigozhin [...] because if they reported the problem, decisions would have to be made. And how would you make that decision?" According to Meduza's sources, after Prigozhin failed to evade the order to integrate Wagner into the regular military, "Some bad foreboding spread in the air, that something was about to happen." Kremlin officials "talked about it in meetings, and came to the conclusion that [Prigozhin] is a daring opportunist who doesn't play by the rules. When it came to the risk of an armed insurrection, they thought it was nil." Consequently, they believed Prigozhin's announcement of an uprising to be a bluff intended to extract concessions, only realizing the seriousness of the situation once Wagner captured Rostov-on-Don. Lukashenko has said that both he and Putin had "slept through this situation" and that both "thought it would fizzle out on its own [when it started to develop]". The Moscow Times reported that hours before his announcement of the rebellion, Prigozhin was secretly planning to attend a roundtable discussion in the State Duma opened by A Just Russia – For Truth leader Sergei Mironov in which MPs criticized the Kremlin's handling of the war effort in Ukraine. It added that Prigozhin was supposed to give a harsh criticism of the Russian military leadership from the Duma's chamber in a final attempt to win back Putin's approval. However, his plans were canceled at the last minute without explanation. == Rebellion ==

Prigozhin's statements Rebukes of the government and allegation of an attack on Wagner In a video released on 23 June 2023, Prigozhin claimed that the government's justifications for invading Ukraine were based on falsehoods, and that the invasion was designed to further the interests of Russian elites. He accused the MoD of attempting to deceive the public and the president by portraying Ukraine as an aggressive and hostile adversary which, in collaboration with NATO, was plotting an attack on Russian interests. Specifically, he denied that any Ukrainian escalation took place prior to 24 February 2022, which was one of the central points of Russian justification for the war. Prigozhin alleged that Shoigu and the "oligarchic clan" had personal motives for initiating the war. Furthermore, he asserted that the Russian military command intentionally concealed the true number of soldiers killed in Ukraine, with casualties reaching up to 1,000 on certain days. In an effort to create a pretext for rebellion, later on 23 June, Prigozhin amplified a video that had already been circulating in Wagner-associated Telegram channels that reportedly showed the aftermath of a missile strike on a Wagner rear camp. Prigozhin accused the Russian MoD of conducting the strike, which he claimed killed 2,000 of his fighters. The MoD denied the allegations of attacking Wagner's rear camps, and the Institute for the Study of War was unable to confirm the veracity of the video, noting that it "may have been manufactured for informational purposes". Georgy Aleksandrov, a war correspondent for Novaya Gazeta Europe, also thought that the video of the aftermath of the shelling did not look credible, noting "There are no obvious craters from the hits. No obvious body fragments. No general smoke. The fires don't look like remnants from rocket impacts." Call to rebellion Prigozhin declared the start of an armed conflict against the Ministry of Defence in a message posted on his press service's Telegram channel. He called upon individuals interested in joining the conflict against the Ministry, Additionally, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu had cowardly fled from Rostov-on-Don at nine o'clock in the evening. Consequently, the Federal Security Service initiated legal proceedings against Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Criminal Code, which concerns armed rebellion. Many members of Wagner were not informed about the planned rebellion beforehand. As a result, they were perplexed by Prigozhin's call to arms and uncertain as to which faction they should align themselves with. Surovikin made his remarks in what the Financial Times described as a "hostage-style video" and had, as of 29 June, remained unaccounted for. In response to Prigozhin's statements, the country's military and National Guard deployed armored vehicles in both Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. Rostov-on-Don is near the frontlines in Ukraine where Wagner troops had been operating, and is also where Prigozhin had claimed that Wagner troops were headed. Capture of Rostov-on-Don During the early morning of 24 June, Wagner forces crossed into Russia's Rostov Oblast from Luhansk and swiftly captured Rostov-on-Don, encountering no apparent opposition. They successfully took control of the Southern Military District headquarters, establishing a secure perimeter in the adjacent streets. Notably, Prigozhin, captured on film, was seen within the courtyard of the headquarters building. The Wagner forces fortified their position by planting landmines and establishing security checkpoints in the city center of Rostov. Wagner members sported silver armbands to distinguish themselves. Prigozhin held a meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alekseyev at the headquarters, during which Yevkurov unsuccessfully attempted to persuade Prigozhin to withdraw his troops. Prigozhin then hunkered down in a bunker in the city and took up command as a detachment of some thousands of Wagner forces advanced on Moscow. in 2024 Many of Rostov's businesses and facilities remained closed. The municipal administration advised residents to stay at home (seemingly to little effect), but did not declare a counter-terrorism operations regime. Some residents tried to stock up on essentials, while others sought to leave the city, resulting in traffic congestion and lengthy lines at the train station. However, there was no widespread panic among the populace. Certain residents congregated in the city center to meet Wagner fighters; the majority was supportive, although a few engaged in arguments with them. The Wagner mercenaries were pointedly amicable with the residents. Wagner forces subsequently urged civilians to stay off the streets for their own safety after which shooting and explosions broke out. According to Chechen state media and various accounts, they did not reach the city center and did not enter into any hostilities. A commander of the Chechen forces later said that some of their teams had been as close as "500-700 meters from Wagner fighters". Advance towards Moscow A convoy of Wagner forces headed to Moscow while Prigozhin commanded the rebellion from Rostov-on-Don. While one column reportedly came from Rostov-on-Don, capturing Millerovo air base, another crossed over from the occupied territory of Ukraine. The vehicles advanced across Voronezh Oblast where they encountered little resistance. Russian military bloggers claimed that the number of Moscow-bound troops stood at 4,000. while Prigozhin claimed that the rebels were 25,000-strong. The Russian Air Force suffered significant losses while confronting Wagner troops, with at least one helicopter and an Il-22M airborne command-center plane shot down. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the loss of the Il-22M was particularly significant, as it was one of only twelve aircraft of the type that had been key to the war effort against Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully trying to shoot down such aircraft throughout the war. At least thirteen Russian military personnel were killed. Janes inferred the number to potentially be as high as 29, based on an estimation of the number of personnel needed to operate all of the reportedly destroyed equipment. Two missiles—likely fired by Wagner's air defense systems—struck an oil depot and a courtyard of a housing complex in Voronezh. They passed through the town of Yelets, In Lipetsk Oblast, authorities deliberately demolished highways using excavators in an effort to impede the convoy's progress. Prigozhin subsequently claimed that two Russian military defectors were killed while fighting alongside Wagner. but Wagner presence was not visually confirmed any closer than Krasnoye in northern Lipetsk Oblast, south of Moscow. Armoured vehicles and an increased presence of security forces was observed throughout Moscow. Municipal authorities contemplated a curfew, Der Spiegel reported all flights departing from Moscow were sold out as people sought to escape the impending situation. According to the airplane-tracking website Flightradar24, an aircraft used by Putin took off from Moscow and headed towards St. Petersburg. However, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin was not on board, and he remained in the Kremlin. Authorities also announced travel restrictions in Kaluga Oblast, which is adjacent to Moscow, with Governor Vladislav Shapsha telling residents to "refrain from travelling by private vehicle on these roads unless absolutely necessary". Meanwhile, the Federal Security Service (FSB) raided Wagner headquarters in Saint Petersburg. Unconfirmed reports in Russian media said cardboard boxes containing 4 billion rubles ($47 million) were discovered from vehicles near the office, gold bars and packs of an unknown white powder were also seized. and other company expenses. He hinted at Wagner's covert global influence operations, including activities in Africa and the United States, which necessitated the use of cash. Olga Romanova, a journalist and leader of the Russian civil rights organization Russia Behind Bars, accused the FSB of threatening relatives of convicts recruited by Wagner since the early hours of 24 June. According to The Daily Telegraph's anonymous sources, British intelligence similarly found that Russian intelligence agencies threatened to harm families of Wagner leaders during its advance on Moscow. On 4 July 10 billion RUB in cash found in Wagner offices was officially returned to Prigozhin, but no information was released on the whereabouts of the seized gold and white powder. On 22 December, The Wall Street Journal, citing sources from Western and Russian intelligence agencies, alleged that Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of Russia, had also requested military assistance from Kazakhstan in the event of the Russian military failing to put down the rebellion, but was refused by president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Events in Syria In Syria, where Wagner forces were part of the Russian military presence in the country's civil war, sources told Reuters that local authorities and Russian military commanders launched a swift crackdown on the Wagner Group to prevent the spread of the rebellion there. In the first hours of the revolt, about a dozen Wagner officers deployed in Homs Governorate and other areas were summoned to the Russian military base at Hmeimim, in the west of the country, according to Syrian military sources. Syrian military intelligence then cut communications overnight on 23 June from areas where Wagner forces operated to prevent them from communicating among themselves and with contacts in Russia. Wagner fighters were then asked to sign contracts putting them under the control of the Russian Defence Ministry and agreeing to a pay cut, with those refusing being removed from Syria aboard Russian Ilyushin aircraft. Those who refused were said to be "in the dozens". == Resolution ==

Prigozhin allegedly made personal efforts to establish contact with the presidential administration on the afternoon of 24 June, including reaching out to Putin himself, who refused to speak with him. Final negotiations were reportedly conducted by Anton Vaino, the chief of staff, Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Security Council, and Boris Gryzlov, the Russian ambassador to Belarus. Prigozhin strongly insisted that high-ranking officials participate in the negotiations, with Putin's refusal to engage paving the way for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko's intervention. Lukashenko reportedly spoke with Prigozhin upon Putin's request, acting as a mediator to broker a settlement. They reached an agreement, which entailed the Wagner fighters ceasing their advance and returning to their base, in exchange for a guarantee of their safety. At around 11:00 p.m. (GMT+3) on 24 June, the Wagner Group commenced the withdrawal of their forces from Rostov-on-Don. Residents of Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops as they left the city, and some approached Prigozhin's vehicle and shook Prigozhin's hand through the window. When asked to comment on the outcome of the revolt in the last known video of him during the rebellion, Prigozhin responded with levity: "It's normal, we have cheered everyone up". Wagner forces reportedly returned to their positions in occupied regions of eastern Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that Prigozhin would be sent to Belarus. According to Peskov, Wagner fighters would not face prosecution, and those who did not participate in the rebellion would have the option to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence. Peskov further conveyed that the Wagner organization as a whole would return to its previous wartime deployment locations. Putin's office reportedly expressed gratitude to Lukashenko for his efforts in quelling the rebellion. == Reactions ==

Domestic Vladimir Putin's address addressing the nation about the Wagner Group rebellion Vladimir Putin addressed the nation on 24 June, denouncing Wagner's actions as "treason" and vowing to take "harsh steps" to suppress the rebellion. He stated the situation threatened the existence of Russia itself. Putin drew historical parallels to the Russian Revolution, which unfolded during the Russian Empire's engagement on the Eastern Front of World War I and resulted in territorial losses in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. After airing Putin's address, TV stations returned to their scheduled programming. In response, Prigozhin stated that his main goal was to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov from office and reiterated his accusations of corruption against the MoD. Other government-aligned figures Prominent Russian establishment politicians called on Prigozhin to stop his rebellion and expressed support for Putin. Dmitry Medvedev, the leader of United Russia, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, and a former president of the country, stated that "the world will be put on the brink of destruction" if Wagner would be able to take control of the government and gain access to nuclear weapons. Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic, called the mutiny "treason" and said his troops were en route to "zones of tension" to "preserve Russia's units and defend its statehood". Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the Patriarch of Moscow and all Rus', leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, called on Russians to pray for Putin. Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Russian State Duma, expressed support for Vladimir Putin. The leaders of Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia since 2014 also expressed support for Putin. Anti-war opposition and anti-government armed groups Russian opposition groups responded in a variety of ways. Exiled former oil magnate and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky urged Russians to support Prigozhin, saying that it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin. However, he later urged Russians to arm themselves, while stating that "Prigozhin is not our friend and not even our ally". Jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny criticized the event and Putin's handling of it writing "The fact that Putin's war could ruin and disintegrate Russia is no longer a dramatic exclamation." He also slammed how the government treated Prigozhin and Wagner in the aftermath in comparison to how himself and his Anti-Corruption Foundation were treated. The anarchist organizations Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists (BOAK) and Autonomous Action both expressed in separate statements that Prigozhin and Putin were equally despicable, and that anarchists had no "side" to take in the conflict. Russian Volunteer Corps leader Denis Kapustin praised Prigozhin, stating that despite their stark ideological differences, he considered Prigozhin "a patriot of Russia." The Freedom of Russia Legion compared the events to those during the Russian Revolution but advised readers to remember Wagner's numerous war crimes. They urged people not to "attribute military honor and valor to [Prigozhin] which does not exist." Igor "Strelkov" Girkin called for the execution of Prigozhin for the rebellion and his "murder" of Russian officers, demanding it as "necessary for the preservation of Russia as a state." Wider public There were no sizeable spontaneous displays of public support for the Putin government during the rebellion. Russia analyst Anna Matveeva contrasted the Russian public's response to that of the Turkish public during the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, where numerous Turkish citizens actively participated in anti-coup demonstrations. In Rostov-on-Don, which was occupied by Wagner forces, videos emerged of residents welcoming the rebels, bringing them amenities and cheering. A survey by Russian Field, a Moscow-based opinion poll company, released on 3 July, found that public support for Prigozhin fell by 26 percentage points in the days after his unsuccessful rebellion, but that 29% of survey respondents continued to view Prigozhin positively. International Western leaders mostly refrained from directly commenting on the rebellion as it unfolded and immediately after, primarily due to concerns that Putin would exploit such comments to claim that it was a foreign conspiracy. Additionally, concerns were raised over control of the Russian nuclear arsenal. U.S. president Joe Biden discussed the situation with French president Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British prime minister Rishi Sunak. Following the rebellion's conclusion, Biden said that Putin had "absolutely" been weakened by the mutiny. In a phone conversation with Putin on 24 June, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey was ready to assist in finding a "peaceful resolution" and urged Putin to act sensibly. In Georgia, there were demands for the closure of its border with Russia, but the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that it was presently unnecessary. Ukrainian officials, including president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, stated that "Russia's weakness is obvious" and that the insurrection was evidence of Russia's political instability, including infighting among elites. Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba called the rebellion an opportunity for the international community to "abandon false neutrality" on Russia and to provide the Ukrainian government with all the weapons it needs to push Russian forces out of Ukraine. Moldovan foreign minister Nicu Popescu said that the events in Russia were proof that Moldova should continue on its trajectory of distancing itself from the "Eurasian space of destruction and war" and towards the European Union to ensure peace, stability and democracy in the country. Commenting on the negotiations, Belarusian President Lukashenko claimed to have convinced Putin to engage in dialogue with Prigozhin rather than assassinating him "because afterwards there will be no negotiations and these guys will be ready to do anything". Lukashenko also claimed that Belarus' national defense will benefit from Wagner's expertise. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated on Twitter that the rebellion exposed the "weakness" of Putin and other dictatorial regimes, and stated that "We must seize this moment now." Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment commander Dzianis Prokharaŭ expressed a similar sentiment in a video address on social media, calling on Belarusian military personnel not to interfere in the events. Valery Sakhashchyk, the Representative for Defense and National Security in the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet in exile, called for a quick decision to either "use [the] historical chance and become a prosperous European country" or "lose everything". He called for the Belarusian military to assert the Nation's independence from Russia, to "unite the nation", and to "tune in to our wave and stay in touch". A Belarusian foreign ministry official described the rebellion as a "gift to the collective West". North Korea and China expressed support for Putin, as did president Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska and former member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. == Aftermath ==

Fallout and restoring order A sense of normalcy swiftly returned to Moscow. On 25 June, workers initiated the repairs of roads that had been destroyed to impede Wagner's advance. The "counter-terrorism operations regime" was lifted in Moscow on 26 June. Following the uprising, the value of the Russian ruble sharply declined, reaching its lowest exchange rate since March 2022. Shoigu was prominently featured in state media coverage, often appearing alongside Putin, in the following days, in an apparent show of confidence. Moreover, Putin undertook a series of public meet-and-greets, a departure from his typically secretive nature, seemingly aiming to showcase public backing. On 10 July, the Defence Ministry released video footage purportedly showing Gerasimov listening to a report about Ukrainian missile attacks, his first public appearance since the revolt. In May 2024, Putin replaced Shoigu with Andrey Belousov as defence minister, appointing the former to secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. Subsequent statements On 26 June, Prigozhin released a recorded statement in which he defended the insurrection. He claimed that the objective was to save the Wagner Group and hold accountable inept government officials. Prigozhin emphasized that the uprising aimed not to overthrow the government and reiterated his accusation that the shelling of Wagner troops by the regular military sparked the rebellion. Prigozhin also favorably compared Wagner's ability to credibly threaten to capture Moscow with the military's failed attempt to capture Kyiv. Hours after Prigozhin's audio message, Putin addressed the nation once again. He rebuked the unnamed individuals who led the rebellion and reiterated his belief that it constituted an act of betrayal. However, Putin characterized Wagner commanders and fighters as predominantly patriots who were "covertly used against their comrades-in-arms." He confirmed that Russian servicemen were killed by Wagner, referring to them as heroes. Putin also stated that members of the group who do not wish to become regular contractors were allowed to transfer to Belarus. On 3 July, Shoigu made his first public statements since the rebellion, praising the loyalty of the armed forces and the continued adherence to operations of Russian forces in Ukraine. Fate of the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin Closure of criminal case and initial statements On 27 June, Russian authorities said they had closed the criminal investigation and dropped the charges against Prigozhin or any other participants in the rebellion, and that Wagner's heavy military equipment was to be transferred to the Russian armed forces. The authorities stated that rebels had "stopped the actions directly aimed at committing a crime". In Belarus, construction of camps for the Wagner Group was reported to have begun in Mogilev Region. On the same day, Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Prigozhin in Belarus, saying that he was welcome to stay "for some time". Also on 27 June, Putin said that the Wagner Group was "fully financed" by the Russian government. This was the first admission by Putin of a link between Wagner and the Russian government, reversing years of Kremlin's denials of any connection. On 29 June, the BBC rang over a dozen recruitment centers using Russian phone numbers including in Volgograd, Krasnodar, Murmansk and Kaliningrad. The BBC was told that they were still signing contracts with the Wagner group and not the Russian MoD. A man in Volgograd said to the BBC: "It's absolutely nothing to do with the defence ministry... Nothing has stopped, we're still recruiting." Crackdown on Wagner, alleged purges and related arrests In the week following the rebellion, Putin moved to take control of the network of business enterprises previously controlled by Prigozhin and Wagner, including hundreds of businesses in Russia and abroad. Prigozhin's media empire was dismantled, and his propaganda operation was taken over by the government, with internet polemicists that had previously backed Prigozhin and attacked his enemies beginning to attack Prigozhin instead. Prigozhin's catering businesses began losing government contracts. Multiple publications reported that General Sergey Surovikin had been arrested by authorities after the rebellion. However, on 12 July, the head of the defence committee of the State Duma, Andrey Kartapolov, said that he was "resting." On 22 August, Surovikin was reportedly removed as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces. On 29 June, Surovikin's deputy, Colonel-General Andrei Yudin, was fired from the army. On 5 July, General Yunus-bek Yevkurov was noted to have been absent from a military meeting. On 5 July, , the general director of the state news agency TASS, was replaced by , who was the press secretary for Putin's reelection campaign in 2018. The Institute for the Study of War said it was a possible indication of the Kremlin's unhappiness with media coverage of the rebellion. On 21 July, Igor Girkin, who commanded separatist fighters during the War in Donbas and was convicted in absentia by a Dutch court for the MH-17 shootdown in 2015, was detained by the FSB according to his wife Miroslava, on charges of extremism. He had been an open critic of Putin and his generals' handling of the war in Ukraine and called for his overthrow earlier in the week. The RBC newspaper reported that his arrest was possibly related to a petition from a member of the Wagner Group. On 5 July, the state television channel Russia-1 broadcast a program on Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, calling Prigozhin a traitor and adding that criminal cases against him over his rebellion were still ongoing. It published footage of what was supposedly Prigozhin's opulent residence. Images purportedly showing of Prigozhin wearing wigs and various disguises also surfaced on the internet. According to a Guardian report published on 6 July based on sources with knowledge of Wagner's African operations, there had been no abnormal movements of Wagner personnel in Africa since the abortive rebellion. However, on the same day as the Guardian report, the newspaper Jeune Afrique reported the departure of Wagner personnel in the Central African Republic, with more than 600 employees departing from Bangui M'Poko International Airport, citing NGOs and analysts. Video also emerged showing uniformed Wagner operatives reports gathering from a helipad. The movements were later claimed by the office of president Faustin-Archange Touadéra on 8 July as a regular rotation. On 12 July, the Russian Ministry of Defence said that the Wagner Group had turned over more than 2,000 pieces of military hardware, which included tanks, mobile rocket launchers and anti-aircraft systems. The Ministry also said it received "more than 2,500 tons of various types of ammunition and about 20,000 small arms." On 13 July, the US Department of Defense assessed that the Wagner Group was no longer participating significantly in military operations in Ukraine. On 14 July, the Belarusian Defence Ministry said that the Wagner Group had begun training soldiers in the country and released a video showing Wagner fighters instructing Belarusian soldiers at a military range near Osipovichi, about 90 kilometers (56 miles) southeast of the capital Minsk. On 15 July, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine confirmed the arrival of the Wagner Group in Belarus, with an unconfirmed report saying that a convoy of some 60 Wagner vehicles had entered the country. It estimated that they had been deployed at least 100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and put the number of mercenaries in the hundreds. Its spokesman said that they did not believe the deployment posed a serious threat to Ukraine but warned that Wagner could be used to destabilize the situation along the border. Prigozhin's return to Russia On 27 June, Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Prigozhin in Belarus saying that he was welcome to stay "for some time". The French newspaper Libération, citing Western intelligence sources, reported that Prigozhin had been back in Moscow since at least 1 July to negotiate the Wagner Group's fate with Putin, and that he met with Russian National Guard commander Viktor Zolotov and SVR head Sergey Naryshkin. On 10 July, the Kremlin said that Putin met with Prigozhin and 35 other commanders of the Wagner Group on 29 June to discuss developments in Ukraine, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying that the president "gave an assessment of the company's actions on the front," as well as on the rebellion, while listening to the commanders' explanations and suggesting "variants of their future employment" and combat roles. Peskov also said that Prigozhin expressed Wagner's unconditional support for Putin. In an interview published on 13 July by the newspaper Kommersant, Putin said he offered to retain Wagner as its own unit in the Russian military led by their current commander, who the newspaper identified only by his call sign of "Grey Hair", only for Prigozhin to reject the proposal. Putin also insisted that the Wagner Group could not exist in its current form, citing the law against private military organizations. On 19 July, Prigozhin made his first public appearance since the end of the rebellion. In a phone video showing him addressing his men, he said his forces would no longer fight in Ukraine and focus on training soldiers in Belarus and maintaining its activities in Africa instead. Following that, in late July, he was present on the sidelines of the 2023 Russia–Africa Summit in Saint Petersburg. Death of Prigozhin and Utkin On 23 August, Prigozhin and nine others including Wagner co-founder Dmitry Utkin were killed in a plane crash as his private jet traveled from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. Russian state-owned media agency TASS reported that Prigozhin had been on the passenger list of the flight. A Wagner-associated Telegram channel claimed the jet was shot down by Russian air defenses over Tver Oblast. The passengers' deaths were officially confirmed on 27 August, following genetic analysis conducted on the remains recovered from the wreckage. Measures of NATO countries In response to events, Estonia strengthened its border security, while Latvia closed its border with Russia and suspended the entry of Russian citizens. Concerned about the potential concentration of Wagner forces in neighboring Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania made a joint request to NATO for additional troops to be deployed to their countries, specifically along the eastern border of the alliance. Responding to earlier tentative plans to reinforce Lithuania, German defence minister Boris Pistorius announced on 26 June that Germany, as the leading nation of the existing NATO battle group stationed in Lithuania, would dispatch a complete brigade consisting of 4,000 troops. This deployment aims to establish the necessary infrastructure for permanent stationing by 2026. On 2 July, Poland announced it was sending 500 police and counterterrorist forces to reinforce its border with Belarus following the Wagner Group's redeployment there. It later sent an additional 1,000 soldiers and equipment to the border. == Analysis ==

Political The rebellion, the first of its kind in Russia since the constitutional crisis of 1993, Andrey Kolesnikov expressed a view that although the rebellion eroded Putin's image, the Russian population did not view Prigozhin's challenge to the establishment as a credible alternative. Therefore, they are assessed likely to continue providing support, whether genuine or feigned, to Putin's administration. According to some analysts, the rebellion laid bare an inherent weakness of Putin's system of power built upon a ruling coalition of competing power centers and a structure of subordinate "nominal" institutions According to Meduza, the rebellion did not last long enough to show whether Prigozhin's radical populist rhetoric enjoyed a genuine base of support among Russia's security services. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Lukashenko was using his role in resolving the rebellion to gain influence and leverage in his relation with Russia, and that he may use the presence of Wagner to reduce the Belarusian military's dependence on Russia. Military Western officials believed that Prigozhin would have faced a decisive defeat had he tried to capture Moscow and that this was likely the reason why Prigozhin ultimately agreed to a negotiated resolution. Meanwhile, according to a Guardian analysis, "The emerging consensus – from experts and in western capitals – is [that the rebellion] was far less than an attempted coup, and more an impulsive demonstration that quickly got out of hand." According to The Guardian, air strikes on the column were conducted because no ground defense force was available to counter the convoy and with Moscow's defenses deficient, it was conceivable that the Wagner convoy would have penetrated the hastily erected defensive lines on the Oka River and reached the roadway circle surrounding Moscow and possibly have captured the capital, however, this may have been a futile act as it was becoming increasingly clear that Prigozhin failed to rally outside support which was essential for his rebellion to succeed. The ISW assessed that Wagner staked its chances on quickly rallying sufficient support from parts of the regular military to make an armed conflict with forces loyal to the MoD feasible. U.S. and allied officials and independent experts consulted by The New York Times said that Prigozhin appeared to believe that a significant part of the Russian military would take his side during the rebellion. == See also ==