The Wilkins Ice Shelf is a rectangular
ice shelf about long and wide (). This feature occupies the central part of Wilkins Sound, from which it takes its name. The name was proposed by the
UK Antarctic Place-Names Committee (UK-APC) in 1971.
Breakup and collapse events In 1993, Professor David Vaughan of the
British Antarctic Survey (BAS) predicted that the northern part of the Wilkins ice shelf was likely to be lost within 30 years if climate warming on the Peninsula were to continue at the same rate. A study by the
National Academy of Sciences in 2002 stated, "Because air temperatures are statistically increasing along the
Antarctic Peninsula region, the presence of glacial
meltwater is likely to become more prevalent in these surface waters and continue to play an ever-increasing role in driving this fragile ecosystem." In 2008 David Vaughan conceded his predictions had been too conservative and that events on the ground were moving quicker than he anticipated. On 25 March 2008 a chunk of the Wilkins ice shelf disintegrated, putting an even larger portion of the glacial ice shelf at risk. Scientists were surprised when they discovered the rest of the ice shelf is beginning to break away from the continent. What is left of the Wilkins ice shelf is now connected by only a narrow beam of ice. At the end of May 2008, another break-off further reduced the width of the connecting ice strip from . This second smaller event, with about of ice separating, was the first documented break-up that occurred in winter. On 20 January 2009,
Reuters reported that the ice shelf could collapse into the ocean within "weeks or months". The shelf was then only held up by a very thin strip of ice (varying from 2 km to 500 meters at the narrowest), which made it very vulnerable to cracks and fissures. If the strip were to break, it would release the ice shelf, which now has the area of the state of
Connecticut (about 14,000 km2). Satellite evidence from 2 April 2009 led ESA analysts to conclude that the collapse of the strip (which would result in a partial break-away from the Antarctic Peninsula) was "imminent". according to this determination, ESA's
Envisat satellite is observing the area daily. The satellite acquisitions are updated automatically to monitor the developments immediately as they occur. Additionally
NASA's
Terra and
Aqua satellites overfly the area several times a day and some of the images acquired are also available. On 5 April 2009, the
ice bridge connecting part of the ice shelf to
Charcot Island collapsed. The break occurred at the thinnest point in the bridge and was the first in any of the sections that connect it to the mainland. While only a section has broken away, some scientists predicted that another large section of the Wilkins Ice Shelf was only days away from completely breaking off. The shelf remains connected to
Latady Island, although it has been stated that this connection "looks set to collapse" as well. The breakaway is seen as firm evidence of the ongoing effects of warming. Temperatures in this region of Antarctica have risen by 2.5 degrees Celsius since the 1950s. If the entire shelf, which is approximately the size of
Jamaica (10,991 km2, 4,244 sq mi), The disintegration of the fringe of the ice shelf, weakened by previous breakups, has continued in March 2013. Image:Wilkins Ice Bridge Collapse (1).jpg|The Wilkins ice bridge still intact. Image:Wilkins Ice Bridge Collapse (2).jpg|The ice bridge is gone, replaced by chunks of ice. ==See also==